Collaborative Research: Fire, Climate, and Forest History in Mongolia

据预测，随着持续的气候变化，野火将会增加。然而，几乎没有证据支持这一假设。这个项目将研究过去四个世纪从戈壁草原到蒙古北部的泰加森林野火与气候之间的关系。蒙古-S的景观、土地利用历史和近期快速气候变化的历史使其成为研究野火和气候之间关系的理想测试案例。野火的发生和严重程度将根据树木年轮记录的树龄和火灾伤疤进行重建。其主要目标是：1)通过在蒙古各地建立火灾历史网络，测试气候对野火影响的假设；2)确定最近的气候变化是否导致野火的数量或严重程度发生了前所未有的变化；3)潜在地确定哪些气候组合可能导致森林属性与历史上的相比发生重大变化。这项研究将增加对野火在气候变化背景下如何影响森林的理解，无论是过去、现在还是未来。它还将补充一个不断增长的全球范围的火灾、气候和森林历史数据库，该数据库可以评估气候变化对野火的潜在影响。这一点很重要，因为在某些森林类型中，野火是帮助维持生态系统健康的关键过程。野火还可能影响大气过程，并可能影响全球变暖。这项研究将有助于美国和蒙古之间的国际合作，并将包括蒙古科学家和学生的参与。

Increased wildfires are predicted to accompany ongoing climate change. Yet, little evidence exists supporting this hypothesis. This project will examine relationships between wildfire and climate over the past four+ centuries, from the steppes of the Gobi to the taiga forests of northern Mongolia. Mongolia?s landscape, land-use history and recent history of rapid climate change make it an ideal test case for an examination of the relationship between wildfire and climate. Wildfire occurrence and severity will be reconstructed using tree ages and fire scars as recorded by tree rings. The main objectives are to: 1) test hypotheses about climate impacts on wildfires by developing a network of fire histories across Mongolia; 2) determine whether recent climate change has caused unprecedented changes in the number or severity of wildfires, and 3) potentially identify what climatic combinations could cause forest properties to change significantly from what they had been historically. This study will increase understanding of how wildfires affect forests within the context of climate change, past, present and future. It will also complement a growing global-scale database on fire, climate, and forest histories that can assess the potential impacts of climate change on wildfires. This is important because, in some forest types, wildfire is a critical process that helps to maintain ecosystem health. Wildfires may also influence atmospheric processes and, potentially, global warming. This research will contribute to international cooperation between the U.S. and Mongolia and will include involvement of Mongolian scientists and students.