CNH: Pluvials, Droughts, Energetics, and the Mongol Empire

这个跨学科的研究项目将聚焦于能量和水在蒙古帝国兴衰中的作用，蒙古帝国是世界历史上最大的毗连陆地帝国。蒙古帝国的成功是一个历史谜团。在13世纪末的鼎盛时期，帝国控制着从匈牙利草原到南亚和波斯的地区。蒙古帝国的发展是以牺牲东欧、波斯和中国农民的利益为代价的。是什么环境因素促成了蒙古族的崛起？到1300年，是什么因素影响了帝国的解体？能源被认为是人类和自然系统发挥作用的关键，但很少有研究研究能源在过去社会的成败中所起的作用。随着现代能源的税收越来越高，过去的社会如何适应不断变化的能源的例子至关重要。同样，随着社会迅速城市化，淡水也将受到威胁。水允许生物系统捕获太阳能，而人类通过发展社会和政治系统来捕获、转换和分配这种能量。该项目将结合来自蒙古帝国的考古和历史数据，以及过去气候的树轮记录，草原生产力和牲畜丰度的模拟估计，以及水质的湖泊沉积物记录，来阐明能源和水在蒙古帝国历史上的作用。调查人员将把重点放在蒙古帝国的所在地鄂尔沁山谷，在那里，最近的环境和考古发现首次使人们能够详细描述过去的人类和环境状况。研究人员假设，蒙古帝国的弧形受到游牧民族可用能量的影响，游牧民族可以用来建立一支足以征服和统治亚洲和东欧大部分地区的机动军队和政府力量。他们还将调查帝国的收缩是否与干旱、草原生产力下降以及快速城市化和气候变化导致的水质差有关。该项目将加强对多个主题的基本理解，包括水和能源在人类和自然系统中的作用，气候从温暖的中世纪气候异常到寒冷的小冰期的气候变化，湖泊沉积物数据的应用，以了解牲畜对水质的影响，以及气候变化和生态系统健康之间的关系。了解水和能源在具有国际知名度的历史社会演变中的作用，将有助于推动对现代系统及其对能源和水资源的依赖的当前观点的审议。通过该项目开发的树木年轮记录将允许对数百件木制文物进行年代测定，从而提供蒙古帝国古都喀喇昆仑事件的年度历史。该项目还将在国际合作的背景下为本科生、研究生和博士后研究员提供教育和培训机会。该项目得到了NSF自然与人类耦合系统动力学(CNH)计划和NSF国际科学与工程办公室的支持。

This interdisciplinary research project will focus on the role of energy and water in the rise and fall of the Mongol Empire, the largest contiguous land empire in the history of the world. The success of the Mongol Empire is a historical enigma. At its peak in the late 13th century, the empire controlled areas from the Hungarian grasslands to southern Asia and Persia. Powered by domesticated livestock, the Mongol Empire grew at the expense of farmers in Eastern Europe, Persia, and China. What environmental factors contributed to the rise of the Mongols? What factors influenced the disintegration of the empire by 1300? Energy is considered as critical for human and natural systems to function, yet few studies have examined the role of energy in the success and failure of past societies. As modern energy sources become increasingly taxed, examples of how past societies adapted to changing energy sources is critical. In a similar way, as societies become rapidly urbanized, freshwater will be threatened. Water allows biological systems to capture solar energy and humans to capture, transform, and allocate this energy through their development of social and political systems. This project will combine archaeological and historical data from the Mongol Empire with tree-ring records of past climate, modeled estimates of grassland productivity and livestock abundance, and lake sediment records of water quality to illuminate the role of energy and water in the history of the Mongol Empire. The investigators will focus on the Orkhon Valley, the seat of the Mongol Empire, where recent environmental and archeological discoveries allow detailed descriptions of past human and environmental conditions for the first time. The researchers hypothesize that the arc of the Mongol Empire was influenced by the energy available to nomadic pastoralists for building a mobile military and governmental force sufficient to conquer and govern a significant portion of Asia and Eastern Europe. They also will investigate whether the contraction of the empire was related to drought, declining grassland productivity, and poor water quality associated with rapid urbanization and climate change.This project will enhance basic understanding on multiple topics, including the role of water and energy in human and natural systems, the change in climate from the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly to the cold Little Ice Age, the application of lake sediment data for understanding impacts of livestock on water quality, and relationships between climate variation and ecosystem health. Understanding the role of water and energy in the evolution of a historical society of international renown will help advance consideration of current perspectives on modern systems and their dependence on energy and water sources. Tree-ring records developed through this project will allow hundreds of wooden artifacts to be dated, thereby providing an annual history of events at Karakorum, the ancient capital of the Mongol Empire. This project also will provide education and training opportunities for undergraduate students, graduate students, and post-doctoral fellows in an international collaborative context. This project is supported by the NSF Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program and the NSF Office of International Science and Engineering.