CNH: Pluvials, Droughts, Energetics, and the Mongol Empire

这个跨学科的研究项目将集中在能源和水在蒙古帝国的兴衰中的作用，蒙古帝国是世界历史上最大的陆地帝国。 蒙古帝国的成功是一个历史之谜。 在世纪晚期的鼎盛时期，帝国控制了从匈牙利草原到南亚和波斯的地区。 蒙古帝国依靠驯养牲畜，以东欧、波斯和中国农民为代价发展壮大。 什么样的环境因素促成了蒙古人的崛起？ 1300年帝国解体的原因是什么？ 能源被认为是人类和自然系统发挥作用的关键，但很少有研究探讨能源在过去社会成功和失败中的作用。 随着现代能源的税收越来越高，过去社会如何适应不断变化的能源的例子至关重要。 同样，随着社会迅速城市化，淡水将受到威胁。 水使生物系统能够捕获太阳能，人类能够通过社会和政治系统的发展来捕获、转化和分配这种能量。 该项目将联合收割机结合蒙古帝国的考古和历史数据与过去气候的树木年轮记录，草地生产力和牲畜丰度的模拟估计，以及水质的湖泊沉积物记录，以阐明能源和水在蒙古帝国历史上的作用。 调查人员将重点关注蒙古帝国所在地鄂尔浑河流域，最近的环境和考古发现首次详细描述了过去的人类和环境条件。 研究人员假设，蒙古帝国的弧线受到游牧民族的能量的影响，这些能量用于建立一支足以征服和统治亚洲和东欧大部分地区的移动的军事和政府力量。 他们还将调查帝国的收缩是否与干旱有关，草地生产力下降，以及与快速城市化和气候变化相关的水质差。该项目将加强对多个主题的基本了解，包括水和能源在人类和自然系统中的作用，气候从温暖的中世纪气候异常到寒冷的小冰期的变化，应用湖泊沉积物数据了解牲畜对水质的影响，以及气候变化与生态系统健康之间的关系。 了解水和能源在一个具有国际知名度的历史社会演变过程中的作用，将有助于推动对现代系统及其对能源和水源的依赖的当前观点的审议。 通过该项目开发的树木年轮记录将使数百件木制文物能够确定年代，从而提供蒙古帝国古都喀喇昆仑的年度历史。 该项目还将在国际合作背景下为本科生、研究生和博士后研究员提供教育和培训机会。 该项目由NSF耦合自然和人类系统动力学（CNH）计划和NSF国际科学与工程办公室支持。

This interdisciplinary research project will focus on the role of energy and water in the rise and fall of the Mongol Empire, the largest contiguous land empire in the history of the world. The success of the Mongol Empire is a historical enigma. At its peak in the late 13th century, the empire controlled areas from the Hungarian grasslands to southern Asia and Persia. Powered by domesticated livestock, the Mongol Empire grew at the expense of farmers in Eastern Europe, Persia, and China. What environmental factors contributed to the rise of the Mongols? What factors influenced the disintegration of the empire by 1300? Energy is considered as critical for human and natural systems to function, yet few studies have examined the role of energy in the success and failure of past societies. As modern energy sources become increasingly taxed, examples of how past societies adapted to changing energy sources is critical. In a similar way, as societies become rapidly urbanized, freshwater will be threatened. Water allows biological systems to capture solar energy and humans to capture, transform, and allocate this energy through their development of social and political systems. This project will combine archaeological and historical data from the Mongol Empire with tree-ring records of past climate, modeled estimates of grassland productivity and livestock abundance, and lake sediment records of water quality to illuminate the role of energy and water in the history of the Mongol Empire. The investigators will focus on the Orkhon Valley, the seat of the Mongol Empire, where recent environmental and archeological discoveries allow detailed descriptions of past human and environmental conditions for the first time. The researchers hypothesize that the arc of the Mongol Empire was influenced by the energy available to nomadic pastoralists for building a mobile military and governmental force sufficient to conquer and govern a significant portion of Asia and Eastern Europe. They also will investigate whether the contraction of the empire was related to drought, declining grassland productivity, and poor water quality associated with rapid urbanization and climate change.This project will enhance basic understanding on multiple topics, including the role of water and energy in human and natural systems, the change in climate from the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly to the cold Little Ice Age, the application of lake sediment data for understanding impacts of livestock on water quality, and relationships between climate variation and ecosystem health. Understanding the role of water and energy in the evolution of a historical society of international renown will help advance consideration of current perspectives on modern systems and their dependence on energy and water sources. Tree-ring records developed through this project will allow hundreds of wooden artifacts to be dated, thereby providing an annual history of events at Karakorum, the ancient capital of the Mongol Empire. This project also will provide education and training opportunities for undergraduate students, graduate students, and post-doctoral fellows in an international collaborative context. This project is supported by the NSF Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program and the NSF Office of International Science and Engineering.