Evaluation of Uncertainty in CO2 Sequestration Modeling: a Flow Relevance Study using Experimental Stratigraphy and Field Verification (Teapot Dome, Wyoming)

二氧化碳封存模型的不确定性评估：使用实验地层学和现场验证的流量相关性研究（怀俄明州茶壶圆顶）

• 批准号: 0838250
• 负责人: Ye Zhang
• 金额: $ 26.24万
• 依托单位: University of Wyoming
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-06-15 至 2012-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0838250&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Evaluation; Uncertainty; CO2; Sequestration; Modeling

Evaluation of Uncertainty in CO2 Sequestration Modeling: a Flow Relevance Study using Experimental Stratigraphy and Field Verification (Teapot Dome, Wyoming)Ye ZhangEAR-0838250University of WyomingABSTRACTInjection of supercritical carbon dioxide (CO2) into deep permeable formations of sedimentary basins has been proposed as a viable approach to greenhouse gas sequestration (geostorage). Both aquifer storage efficiency and potential leakage subsequent to injection are critical factors for consideration. Though numerical modeling provides a key assessment tool, multiple sources of uncertainty exist in the model construct, creating significant uncertainty in predicting CO2 flow in the storage formations. For example, one important conceptual model uncertainty is the multiple levels of homogeneity with which a formation can be represented, which are typically constrained by the quality and accessibility of site-specific data. For a given model, some parameters exert more influence on the prediction outcomes than others, thus in site evaluations, the value and relevance of diverse data types need to be better understood. This proposal aims to address this fundamental assessment issue with a two-pronged strategy. First, CO2 flow simulations will be conducted in a novel, experiment-based synthetic aquifer as well as in three increasingly homogenized models (i.e., facies-scale, facies-assemblage-scale, formation scale representations). To assess parameter uncertainties, the simulations will be conducted within an efficient computation framework based on the Design of Experiment. By comparing model predictions (full range of scenarios) and sensitivity (the most significant parameters impacting CO2 flow), an optimal level of model complexity will be determined. The insights gained will then help guide the development of a site-specific model for a CO2 injection test in the Teapot Dome, Wyoming. In modeling the field test, the analysis workflow will be validated in a dynamic setting by integrating simulation with data collection and field observation. Results will clarify the most relevant data types in CO2 modeling that require better characterization. Since successful implementation of carbon geostorage depends on both the accuracy and cost-effectiveness of the technical assessment studies, our work will be of broad scientific significance as well as high societal relevance.

在沉积盆地深层渗透地层中注入超临界二氧化碳（CO2）已被认为是温室气体封存（地储）的一种可行方法。含水层蓄水效率和注入后的潜在泄漏都是考虑的关键因素。尽管数值模拟提供了一个关键的评估工具，但在模型构建中存在多种不确定性来源，这在预测储层中的CO2流量时产生了很大的不确定性。例如，一个重要的概念模型的不确定性是表示地层的多重同质性，这通常受到特定地点数据的质量和可及性的限制。对于给定的模型，某些参数对预测结果的影响大于其他参数，因此在场地评价中，需要更好地了解不同数据类型的价值和相关性。本建议旨在以双管齐下的战略解决这一基本评估问题。首先，二氧化碳流动模拟将在一种新的、基于实验的合成含水层以及三种日益同质化的模型（即，相尺度、相组合尺度、地层尺度表征）中进行。为了评估参数的不确定性，模拟将在基于实验设计的高效计算框架内进行。通过比较模型预测（所有情景）和敏感性（影响二氧化碳流量的最重要参数），将确定模型复杂性的最佳水平。所获得的见解将有助于指导怀俄明州Teapot Dome二氧化碳注入测试的现场特定模型的开发。在现场测试建模中，分析工作流程将通过将模拟与数据收集和现场观测相结合，在动态环境中进行验证。结果将澄清二氧化碳建模中最相关的数据类型，这些数据类型需要更好的表征。由于碳地质储存的成功实施取决于技术评估研究的准确性和成本效益，我们的工作将具有广泛的科学意义和高度的社会相关性。