Identification, Estimation, and Applications in Auction and Differentiated Products Markets

本项目涉及对两大产业组织领域的实证方法和应用的研究：1)拍卖和2)差异化产品需求。拍卖是重要的市场制度，为研究信息不对称市场中的战略行为提供了一个独特的窗口。需求估计是微观经济学中广泛的实证工作的基础。拍卖方面的工作包括对首价拍卖的方法论研究，当不可观测因素影响到所观察到的拍卖样本、参与的竞标者的集合以及他们的出价时。我们提供了新的识别结果，新的估计方法和模拟研究来评估方法。该项目还包括对美国外大陆架联邦矿产租赁拍卖的实证研究。在过去的25年里，技术和政策发生了几次重大变化，可能会对这些销售产生重大影响。我们研究了这些变化对投标人参与、投标、钻井和生产的影响。我们研究了三维成像技术对这些拍卖的信息结构和竞标的影响，并评估了有争议的版税减免计划。对差异化产品需求的研究由三个部分组成，每个部分都考察了在较弱的假设下可以学到的东西，而不是之前通常考虑的假设。第一种考虑的是消费者层面的特征和选择是可观察到的（微观数据）。偏好模型是非参数和分布自由的嵌套随机系数离散选择模型，在实践中广泛应用于参数函数形式和分布假设。它结合了特定于选择的不可观察因素，以及对不同产品和个人偏好如何变化的非常灵活的说明。这部分工作提供了对获得可靠估计所需的数据和假设的更深入的理解。第二个项目考虑只观察市场水平数据的情况。这种情况更具挑战性，需要一种不同类型的论证；然而，对于限制较少的模型，我们再次获得了积极的结果。第三个项目检查需求估计，考虑到当公司选择提供的产品时，这会导致产品的可观察和不可观察特征之间的相关性。我们为识别提供条件，然后开发、评估和应用新的估计方法。这项工作的方法论组成部分解决了从反垄断政策到教育经济学和公共资源分配等领域的经济和政策问题分析的重要问题。一些实证工作解决了对美国政府政策直接重要的问题。这些工作将通过研究研讨会、会议报告和研究文章的出版广泛传播。这项工作将有助于培养研究生，他们将担任研究助理和共同作者。

This project involves research on empirical methods and applications in two broad areas of industrial organization: 1) auctions and 2) demand for differentiated products. Auctions are important market institutions and provide a unique window on strategic behavior in markets with asymmetric information. Demand estimation is fundamental to a wide range of empirical work in microeconomics.The work on auctions includes methodological research on estimation of first-price auctions when unobservables affect the sample of auctions observed, the set of bidders participating, and the bids they make. We provide new identification results, a new estimation approach, and simulation studies to evaluate the methods. The project also includes an empirical examination of Federal mineral lease auctions on the U.S. Outer-Continental Shelf. Over the last 25 years there have been several major changes in technology and policy that are likely to have significant effects on these sales. We examine the effects of these changes on bidder participation, bidding, drilling, and production. We study the effects of three-dimensional imaging technology on the information structure and bidding at these auctions, and also assess the controversial royalty relief program. The work on demand for differentiated products is comprised of three components, each examining what can be learned under weaker assumptions than those typically considered previously. The first considers the case in which consumer-level characteristics and choices are observable (micro data). The model of preferences is nonparametric and distribution free, nesting random coefficients discrete choice models widely used in practice with parametric functional form and distributional assumptions. It incorporates choice-specific unobservables and a very flexible specification of how preferences vary across products and individuals. This component of the work provides a deeper understanding of the data and assumptions required to obtain reliable estimates. The second project considers the case in which one observes only market level data. This case is more challenging and requires a different type of argument; however, we again obtain positive results for less restrictive models than those previously considered. The third project examines demand estimation allowing for the fact that when firms choose the products to offer, this leads to correlation between observable and unobservable characteristics of products. We provide conditions for identification, then develop, evaluate, and apply new estimation methods. The methodological components of this work addresses issues of importance to the analysis of economic and policy questions in fields ranging from anti-trust policy to the economics of education and the allocation of public resources. Some of the empirical work addresses issues of direct importance to government policy in the U.S. The work will be disseminated broadly through research seminars, conference presentations, and publication of research articles. This work will contribution to the training of graduate students, who will serve both as research assistants and co-authors.