A Moist Pathway of Extratropical Cyclogenesis and Its Implications for High Impact Weather and Atmospheric Predictability

温带气旋的潮湿路径及其对高影响天气和大气可预测性的影响

• 批准号: 0849356
• 负责人: Michael Montgomery
• 金额: $ 71.02万
• 依托单位: Naval Postgraduate School
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Interagency Agreement
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-03-01 至 2015-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0849356&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Moist; Pathway; Extratropical; Cyclogenesis; Its

The overarching goal of this research project is to advance the current state of knowledge of mid-latitude storm dynamics and predictability. The work will consist of three distinct yet congruous areas of investigation: (i) a better understanding of the physical processes involved in storm genesis and intensification, including those involving latent heating due to condensation of water vapor, (ii) an evaluation of the skill of today's forecast models to predict storm genesis, evolution and larger-scale impacts, and (iii) a critical test of research findings using observational field campaign data.A suite of research tools will be utilized to accomplish research objectives. Fundamental storm dynamics and their role in high impact weather will be examined primarily via the use of a set of carefully designed, idealized numerical model simulations and model-based case study analyses. Predictability will be investigated using the unique, multi-model ensemble forecast data provided by the Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble. Finally, data from the THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign will provide important in situ data to test research findings.Broader impacts include the fact that all scientific collaborators, including a number of military graduate students at the Naval Postgraduate School, will gain unique experience as part of a dynamic research team. The novel research findings will be incorporated into a wide range of academic courses at the school and be disseminated to the larger scientific community via peer reviewed publications and scientific conferences.

该研究项目的总体目标是提高中纬度风暴动态和可预测性的当前知识状态。这项工作将由三个不同但一致的调查领域组成：（i）更好地理解涉及暴风雨生成和强化的物理过程，包括涉及水蒸气凝结引起的潜在供暖的物理过程，（ii）评估当今预测模型的技能，以预测风暴创造，进化的研究和较大的研究竞选活动的研究，以及（iii III）的研究。实现研究目标。基本风暴动态及其在高影响力天气中的作用将主要通过使用一组精心设计的，理想化的数值模型模拟和基于模型的案例研究分析来检查。可预测性将使用观测系统研究和可预测性实验（Thorpex）交互式大全球集合提供的独特的多模型集合预测数据进行研究。最后，来自索普克斯太平洋亚洲区域运动的数据将提供重要的原位数据来测试研究结果。Broader的影响包括以下事实：所有科学合作者，包括海军研究生的许多军事研究生，将作为动态研究团队的一部分获得独特的经验。新颖的研究结果将纳入学校的各种学术课程，并通过同行评审的出版物和科学会议将其传播到更大的科学界。