A Moist Pathway of Extratropical Cyclogenesis and Its Implications for High Impact Weather and Atmospheric Predictability

温带气旋的潮湿路径及其对高影响天气和大气可预测性的影响

• 批准号: 0849356
• 负责人: Michael Montgomery
• 金额: $ 71.02万
• 依托单位: Naval Postgraduate School
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Interagency Agreement
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-03-01 至 2015-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0849356&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Moist; Pathway; Extratropical; Cyclogenesis; Its

The overarching goal of this research project is to advance the current state of knowledge of mid-latitude storm dynamics and predictability. The work will consist of three distinct yet congruous areas of investigation: (i) a better understanding of the physical processes involved in storm genesis and intensification, including those involving latent heating due to condensation of water vapor, (ii) an evaluation of the skill of today's forecast models to predict storm genesis, evolution and larger-scale impacts, and (iii) a critical test of research findings using observational field campaign data.A suite of research tools will be utilized to accomplish research objectives. Fundamental storm dynamics and their role in high impact weather will be examined primarily via the use of a set of carefully designed, idealized numerical model simulations and model-based case study analyses. Predictability will be investigated using the unique, multi-model ensemble forecast data provided by the Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble. Finally, data from the THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign will provide important in situ data to test research findings.Broader impacts include the fact that all scientific collaborators, including a number of military graduate students at the Naval Postgraduate School, will gain unique experience as part of a dynamic research team. The novel research findings will be incorporated into a wide range of academic courses at the school and be disseminated to the larger scientific community via peer reviewed publications and scientific conferences.

该研究项目的总体目标是提高目前对中纬度风暴动力学和可预测性的认识。这项工作将包括三个不同但一致的调查领域：㈠更好地了解风暴发生和加强所涉及的物理过程，包括那些涉及由于水蒸气凝结而产生的潜热的物理过程，㈡评价当今预报模式预测风暴发生、演变和大规模影响的能力，以及（iii）使用观测的实地活动数据对研究结果进行关键性检验。一套研究工具将用于实现研究目标。基本的风暴动力学及其在高影响天气中的作用将主要通过使用一套精心设计的，理想化的数值模型模拟和基于模型的案例研究分析来研究。将利用观测系统研究和可预报性实验互动全球大集合提供的独特的多模式集合预报数据来研究可预报性。最后，来自太平洋亚洲区域活动的数据将为检验研究结果提供重要的现场数据，更广泛的影响包括所有科学合作者，包括海军研究生院的一些军事研究生，将作为一个充满活力的研究团队的一部分获得独特的经验。新的研究成果将被纳入学校的广泛的学术课程，并通过同行评审的出版物和科学会议传播到更大的科学界。