A Moist Pathway of Extratropical Cyclogenesis and Its Implications for High Impact Weather and Atmospheric Predictability

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The overarching goal of this research project is to advance the current state of knowledge of mid-latitude storm dynamics and predictability. The work will consist of three distinct yet congruous areas of investigation: (i) a better understanding of the physical processes involved in storm genesis and intensification, including those involving latent heating due to condensation of water vapor, (ii) an evaluation of the skill of today's forecast models to predict storm genesis, evolution and larger-scale impacts, and (iii) a critical test of research findings using observational field campaign data.A suite of research tools will be utilized to accomplish research objectives. Fundamental storm dynamics and their role in high impact weather will be examined primarily via the use of a set of carefully designed, idealized numerical model simulations and model-based case study analyses. Predictability will be investigated using the unique, multi-model ensemble forecast data provided by the Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble. Finally, data from the THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign will provide important in situ data to test research findings.Broader impacts include the fact that all scientific collaborators, including a number of military graduate students at the Naval Postgraduate School, will gain unique experience as part of a dynamic research team. The novel research findings will be incorporated into a wide range of academic courses at the school and be disseminated to the larger scientific community via peer reviewed publications and scientific conferences.