PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT)

根据热带云系统萧条前调查（PREDICT）项目提交的科学计划概述（SPO）文件，这项初步工作将侧重于完成协调潜在的PREDICT调查人员所需的旅行，以及为涉及研究飞机和相关人员的操作确定合适位置所需的有限现场调查。如果最终得到支持，PREDICT实地活动将对大西洋中部和西部盆地热带和亚热带地区的小尺度大气扰动进行详细调查，特别注意收集评估热带气旋形成的所谓“有袋动物”理论所需的数据。这种模式的核心假设是，在行波状的大气扰动中存在一个区域，该区域有效地将成长中的对流云系统与变形切变和干燥气流的有害影响隔离开来，从而使它们成长为更强烈的扰动（称为热带低气压），在某些情况下，形成成熟的飓风。如果得到支持，PREDICT将利用NSF/NCAR GV飞机作为联合落差探空仪和现场大气测量的平台，与其他联邦机构提供的额外观测平台密切协调。该项目的智力价值集中在提高对飓风形成过程中涉及的大气过程的理解，以及更可靠地区分那些将发展成为重要热带气旋的扰动和那些不会发展成为重要热带气旋的扰动的能力。计划中的实地项目将产生更广泛的影响，包括培训研究生，加强多个研究机构和飓风研究人员之间的合作与协调，以及更可靠的飓风预报带来的社会效益。

Based upon a submitted Scientific Program Overview (SPO) document for the PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) project, this preliminary effort will focus on completion of travel required for coordination of potential PREDICT investigators and limited site surveys needed to identify suitable location(s) for operations involving research aircraft and associated personnel. If ultimately supported, the PREDICT field campaign will conduct detailed investigations of smaller-scale atmospheric disturbances within the tropical and sub-tropical reaches of the central and western Atlantic basin, with particular attention to gathering data needed to evaluate the so-called "marsupial" theory of tropical cyclone formation. This paradigm centers on the hypothesized existence of a zone within traveling wave-like atmospheric disturbances that effectively isolates growing convective cloud systems from the deleterious effects of deformational shear and dry airstreams, thus allowing them to grow into more vigorous disturbances (termed tropical depressions) and, in some cases, into full-fledged hurricanes. If supported, PREDICT will utilize the NSF/NCAR GV aircraft as a platform for combined dropsonde and in situ atmospheric measurements in close coordination with additional observational platforms provided by other federal agencies. The project's intellectual merit is centered on improved understanding of atmospheric processes involved in hurricane formation and the ability to more reliably differentiate those disturbances that will grow to become significant tropical cyclones from those that fail to do so.Broader impacts of the planned field program will include training of graduate students, increased collaboration and coordination among multiple research agencies and hurricane researchers, and societal benefits growing out of more reliable hurricane forecasts.