PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT)

根据已提交的热带地区云系大萧条前调查（PREDICT）项目的科学计划概述（SPO）文件，该初步工作将侧重于完成协调潜在的PREDICT调查人员所需的旅行，以及确定涉及研究飞机和相关人员的作业的合适地点所需的有限现场调查。如果最终得到支持，预测的实地活动将对大西洋盆地中部和西部的热带和亚热带范围内较小规模的大气扰动进行详细调查，特别注意收集评估所谓的热带气旋形成“有袋动物”理论所需的数据。这种模式的中心假设存在一个区域内的行波样大气扰动，有效地隔离不断增长的对流云系统的变形剪切和干燥气流的有害影响，从而使他们成长为更有力的扰动（称为热带低气压），并在某些情况下，成为成熟的飓风。如果得到支持，PREDICT将利用NSF/NCAR GV飞机作为平台，与其他联邦机构提供的其他观测平台密切协调，进行联合投下式探空仪和现场大气测量。该项目的学术价值集中在提高对飓风形成过程中所涉及的大气过程的理解，以及更可靠地区分那些将发展成为重要热带气旋的扰动和那些没有发展成为重要热带气旋的扰动的能力。计划中的实地项目的更广泛影响将包括培训研究生，加强多个研究机构和飓风研究人员之间的合作和协调，以及更可靠的飓风预报带来的社会效益。

Based upon a submitted Scientific Program Overview (SPO) document for the PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) project, this preliminary effort will focus on completion of travel required for coordination of potential PREDICT investigators and limited site surveys needed to identify suitable location(s) for operations involving research aircraft and associated personnel. If ultimately supported, the PREDICT field campaign will conduct detailed investigations of smaller-scale atmospheric disturbances within the tropical and sub-tropical reaches of the central and western Atlantic basin, with particular attention to gathering data needed to evaluate the so-called "marsupial" theory of tropical cyclone formation. This paradigm centers on the hypothesized existence of a zone within traveling wave-like atmospheric disturbances that effectively isolates growing convective cloud systems from the deleterious effects of deformational shear and dry airstreams, thus allowing them to grow into more vigorous disturbances (termed tropical depressions) and, in some cases, into full-fledged hurricanes. If supported, PREDICT will utilize the NSF/NCAR GV aircraft as a platform for combined dropsonde and in situ atmospheric measurements in close coordination with additional observational platforms provided by other federal agencies. The project's intellectual merit is centered on improved understanding of atmospheric processes involved in hurricane formation and the ability to more reliably differentiate those disturbances that will grow to become significant tropical cyclones from those that fail to do so.Broader impacts of the planned field program will include training of graduate students, increased collaboration and coordination among multiple research agencies and hurricane researchers, and societal benefits growing out of more reliable hurricane forecasts.