PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT)

基于一份提交的热带云系萧条前调查(FOREST)项目的科学计划概述(SPO)文件，这项初步工作将侧重于完成协调潜在预测调查人员所需的旅行，以及为涉及科考机和相关人员的操作确定合适地点所需的有限现场调查(S)。如果最终得到支持，预测实地活动将对大西洋盆地中西部热带和亚热带范围内的较小规模大气扰动进行详细调查，特别注意收集评估热带气旋形成的所谓“有袋类”理论所需的数据。这一模式的核心是假设在行波状大气扰动中存在一个区域，有效地将不断增长的对流云系与变形切变和干燥气流的有害影响隔离开来，从而使它们能够发展为更强烈的扰动(称为热带低压)，在某些情况下，还会发展为成熟的飓风。如果得到支持，预测公司将利用NSF/NCAR GV飞机作为联合降落探空仪和现场大气测量的平台，并与其他联邦机构提供的其他观测平台密切协调。该项目的学术价值集中于提高对飓风形成过程中涉及的大气过程的理解，以及更可靠地区分那些将增长为重要热带气旋的扰动和那些未能形成显著热带气旋的扰动。计划中的实地项目的广泛影响将包括对研究生的培训，多个研究机构和飓风研究人员之间加强合作和协调，以及从更可靠的飓风预报中产生的社会效益。

Based upon a submitted Scientific Program Overview (SPO) document for the PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) project, this preliminary effort will focus on completion of travel required for coordination of potential PREDICT investigators and limited site surveys needed to identify suitable location(s) for operations involving research aircraft and associated personnel. If ultimately supported, the PREDICT field campaign will conduct detailed investigations of smaller-scale atmospheric disturbances within the tropical and sub-tropical reaches of the central and western Atlantic basin, with particular attention to gathering data needed to evaluate the so-called "marsupial" theory of tropical cyclone formation. This paradigm centers on the hypothesized existence of a zone within traveling wave-like atmospheric disturbances that effectively isolates growing convective cloud systems from the deleterious effects of deformational shear and dry airstreams, thus allowing them to grow into more vigorous disturbances (termed tropical depressions) and, in some cases, into full-fledged hurricanes. If supported, PREDICT will utilize the NSF/NCAR GV aircraft as a platform for combined dropsonde and in situ atmospheric measurements in close coordination with additional observational platforms provided by other federal agencies. The project's intellectual merit is centered on improved understanding of atmospheric processes involved in hurricane formation and the ability to more reliably differentiate those disturbances that will grow to become significant tropical cyclones from those that fail to do so.Broader impacts of the planned field program will include training of graduate students, increased collaboration and coordination among multiple research agencies and hurricane researchers, and societal benefits growing out of more reliable hurricane forecasts.