PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT)

热带地区云系统的抑郁前调查 (PREDICT)

• 批准号: 0819288
• 负责人: Michael Montgomery
• 金额: $ 1.68万
• 依托单位: Naval Postgraduate School
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Interagency Agreement
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-09-01 至 2011-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0819288&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: PRE; Depression; Investigation; Cloud; systems

Based upon a submitted Scientific Program Overview (SPO) document for the PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) project, this preliminary effort will focus on completion of travel required for coordination of potential PREDICT investigators and limited site surveys needed to identify suitable location(s) for operations involving research aircraft and associated personnel. If ultimately supported, the PREDICT field campaign will conduct detailed investigations of smaller-scale atmospheric disturbances within the tropical and sub-tropical reaches of the central and western Atlantic basin, with particular attention to gathering data needed to evaluate the so-called "marsupial" theory of tropical cyclone formation. This paradigm centers on the hypothesized existence of a zone within traveling wave-like atmospheric disturbances that effectively isolates growing convective cloud systems from the deleterious effects of deformational shear and dry airstreams, thus allowing them to grow into more vigorous disturbances (termed tropical depressions) and, in some cases, into full-fledged hurricanes. If supported, PREDICT will utilize the NSF/NCAR GV aircraft as a platform for combined dropsonde and in situ atmospheric measurements in close coordination with additional observational platforms provided by other federal agencies. The project's intellectual merit is centered on improved understanding of atmospheric processes involved in hurricane formation and the ability to more reliably differentiate those disturbances that will grow to become significant tropical cyclones from those that fail to do so.Broader impacts of the planned field program will include training of graduate students, increased collaboration and coordination among multiple research agencies and hurricane researchers, and societal benefits growing out of more reliable hurricane forecasts.

基于提交的科学计划概述（SPO）文件，用于对热带（预测）项目中云层系统进行抑郁的研究，这项初步努力将集中于完成潜在的预测研究人员和有限的现场调查所需的旅行所需的旅行，以确定涉及研究飞机和相关人员的合适地点。如果最终得到支持，预测现场运动将对中西部和西大西洋盆地的热带和亚热带范围内的较小大气障碍进行详细研究，尤其要注意收集所需的数据，以评估所谓的“途径”的热带旋风形成理论。该范式集中在流动波状大气干扰内的假设存在，从而有效地隔离了对流云系统与变形剪切和干燥气流的有害影响，从而使它们能够成长为更具剧烈的干扰（所谓的热带凹陷），并在某些情况下，变成了全面的Hurricanes。如果得到支持，预测Will将利用NSF/NCAR GV飞机作为合并的Dropsonde和原位大气测量的平台，并与其他联邦机构提供的其他观察平台进行了密切协调。该项目的智力优点集中在对飓风形成涉及的大气过程的了解以及更可靠地区分这些骚乱的能力以及不愿做到的那些障碍的能力。计划中的现场计划的影响者的影响将包括对研究生的培训，包括研究生的培训，包括更多的研究机构的培训，以及在多个研究机构中的协作和狂热的福利和狂暴的福利和狂暴的企业。