A Chemical History of Anthropogenic Input to the Atmosphere throughout the Industrial Era

整个工业时代人类对大气的输入的化学历史

• 批准号: 0852775
• 负责人: Tami Bond
• 金额: $ 77.45万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-01 至 2015-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0852775&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Chemical; History; Anthropogenic; Input; Atmosphere

This project will develop a history of anthropogenic emissions of short-lived pollutants to the atmosphere during the period from 1850 to 2010. It will produce estimate of all major aerosol species, aerosol precursors, short-lived trace gases, ozone precursors, and major trace elements emitted from anthropogenic, energy-related combustion and industrial processes for that period. This work represents the first attempt at constraining histories of these species by integrating all available records, from engineering histories to ice cores. Trends in technology change and emission were previously developed on the basis of engineering records and used to estimate black and organic carbon histories. Process-specific emissions of other tracers will be added to develop a time history of multiple tracers. Emissions will be translated to atmospheric concentrations and deposition using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Measured histories of deposition will be tabulated as recorded in lake sediments and ice cores. This project will update the CAM deposition parameterization, particularly for snow and ice, based on recent polar campaigns. It will also conduct an analysis of transport to and deposition in remote regions by climate mode, using a 40-year run with prescribed meteorology, to assess transport and deposition prior to 1960. A scheme will be developed to obtain an optimal representation of emitting technology by comparison with predicted and observed deposition records. Trends, rather than absolute magnitudes, will be the primary basis for comparison. Markers used for optimization will include elemental ratios in source profiles and differences in observations near and far from sources. The optimized technology base will then provide emissions of the important atmospheric species. The broader impacts of this project include: (i) spatially and temporally resolved inputs to global chemical and transport models that evaluate changes in climate forcing, transient climate response, and climate sensitivities from short-lived chemical species and (ii) critical inputs to models of time-dependent anthropogenic perturbations to biogeochemical cycles. A graduate student and two undergraduate students will participate in this project

该项目将发展1850年至2010年期间人为向大气排放短期污染物的历史。它将对这一时期所有主要气溶胶物种、气溶胶前体、短期微量气体、臭氧前体以及人为、与能源有关的燃烧和工业过程排放的主要痕量元素进行估计。这项工作是通过整合从工程历史到冰芯的所有可用记录来限制这些物种的历史的第一次尝试。技术变化和排放的趋势以前是在工程记录的基础上制定的，并用于估计黑色和有机碳的历史。将添加其他示踪剂的进程特定排放，以形成多个示踪剂的时间历史。排放量将利用国家大气研究中心开发的社区大气模式(CAM)转换为大气浓度和沉降量。测得的沉积历史将按照记录在湖泊沉积物和冰芯中的方式列成表格。该项目将根据最近的极地运动更新CAM沉积参数，特别是雪和冰的沉积参数。它还将按气候模式对偏远地区的输送和沉积进行分析，使用规定的气象学运行40年，以评估1960年之前的输送和沉积。将制定一种方案，通过与预测和观测的沉积记录进行比较，获得发射技术的最佳表示。比较的主要依据将是趋势，而不是绝对大小。用于优化的标志将包括震源剖面中的元素比率以及震源附近和远离震源的观测结果的差异。优化后的技术基础将提供重要大气物种的排放。该项目的更广泛影响包括：(1)评估气候强迫、瞬时气候反应和短期化学物种气候敏感性变化的全球化学和运输模型的空间和时间分辨输入；(2)依赖时间的人为干扰对生物地球化学循环的模型的关键输入。一名研究生和两名本科生将参与这个项目。