CNH: Assessing and Adaptively Managing Wildfire Risk in the Wildland-Urban Interface
CNH:评估和适应性管理荒地与城市交界处的野火风险
基本信息
- 批准号:0903562
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 149.63万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Standard Grant
- 财政年份:2009
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:2009-10-01 至 2014-12-31
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
This project aims to enhance the capacity of stakeholders (land and wildland fire management agencies, homeowners, land developers/homebuilders, and community/regional planners) in Flathead County, Montana to assess and manage wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) in light of future climate change and future residential expansion into wildland areas. The project will also improve knowledge and understanding among the broader community (middle school students, high school students, persons in youth and adult environmental education courses, and information personnel) about the nature, benefits, and risks of wildfire in the WUI.Research objectives of the project are to: (1) develop a wildfire-climate model called FIRECLIM that simulates the complex interactions among climate change, expansion of residential development into wildland areas, and wildfire risk in the WUI; (2) demonstrate how the FIRECLIM model can be used by local stakeholders to make optimal ex ante wildfire-related decisions under alternative climate change and economic growth scenarios for the next 50 years (2008 to 2058); (3) test several hypotheses about how future climate change, future residential expansion into wildland areas, and changes in land use policy are likely to influence future wildfires and future wildfire risk in the WUI; (4) develop an ex post decision framework that the community of interest can use to adaptively manage future wildfire risk in the WUI; and (5) construct a Web-based, interactive, spatial decision support tool that facilitates application of the ex ante and ex post decision frameworks by the community of interest. Educational objectives of the project are to: (1) train future practitioners and scientists in interdisciplinary modeling and analysis of a coupled natural-human system for managing future wildfire risk; (2) improve the capacity of the community of interest to assess and manage wildfire risk in the WUI under alternative climate change, economic growth futures, and land use policy futures; and (3) incorporate the research results into educational products that increase the broader community?s understanding and knowledge of wildfire and wildfire risk. The FIRECLIM model integrates a landscape fire dynamics simulation model, a structure ignition assessment model, agent-based behavioral models, and climate change and economic growth futures. We will establish and collaborate with four agent panels composed of representatives of the community of interest to identify alternative decisions for either minimizing net wildfire risk or maximizing expected return on investment in defensive fire measures. Our measure of net wildfire risk is somewhat unique because it accounts for both the expected losses and expected benefits of wildfires. We will evaluate how agents can adapt their wildfire-related decisions to future climate change and future expansion of residential development into wildland areas using an adaptive management framework that employs Bayesian statistical analysis for the risk case and the minimax regret criterion for the uncertainty case. Climate change futures will be based on IPCC scenarios, and residential development into wildland areas for alternative economic growth and land use policy futures will be simulated using the Ecosystem Landscape Modeling System. The project is the first study of its kind to assess how future climate change and future expansion of residential development into wildland areas influences wildfire and wildfire risk in the WUI. Dissemination of project results will be facilitated by incorporating research results into five products designed to improve the broader community?s knowledge and understanding of wildfire and wildfire risk management: (1) a decision support tool that facilitates adaptive management of future wildfire risk by the community of interest; (2) educational programs that enable the community of interest to learn about the interactions among wildfire risk, climate change, land use change, and economic development; (3) a new, one- to two-day, adult environmental education course on the role of wildfire in ecosystems; (4) an interactive, computer simulation program that allows users to interactively simulate wildfire-related decisions for alternative future changes in climate and economic growth in a hypothetical WUI; and (5) a book tentatively titled Managing Future Wildfire Risk in the Wildland-Urban Interface. In addition, the project will train future practitioners and scientists in ways to manage future wildfire risk and involve an international researcher and graduate student from Australia. Project personnel include scientists from Deakin University (Australia), Lindenwood University (Missouri), The University of Montana, University of Missouri, the U.S. Forest Service, and the U.S. Geological Survey. Institutional collaborators include the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes of the Flathead Reservation, Flathead County Office of Emergency Services, Flathead County Planning and Zoning, Flathead National Forest, Glacier National Park, Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, and the Glacier Institute.
该项目旨在提高蒙大拿州弗拉特黑德县利益相关者(土地和荒地火灾管理机构、房主、土地开发商/住宅建筑商和社区/区域规划者)的能力,根据未来气候变化和未来住宅向荒地地区的扩张,评估和管理荒地-城市界面(WUI)的野火风险。该项目还将提高更广泛的社区(中学生、高中生、青少年和成人环境教育课程人员以及信息人员)对 WUI 野火的性质、益处和风险的认识和理解。该项目的研究目标是:(1)开发名为 FIRECLIM 的野火气候模型,模拟气候变化、住宅开发扩展到荒地地区以及该地区野火风险之间的复杂相互作用。 吴伊; (2) 展示当地利益相关者如何使用 FIRECLIM 模型在未来 50 年(2008 年至 2058 年)的替代气候变化和经济增长情景下做出与野火相关的最佳事前决策; (3) 检验关于未来气候变化、未来住宅向荒地地区扩张以及土地利用政策变化可能如何影响 WUI 未来野火和未来野火风险的若干假设; (4) 制定一个事后决策框架,利益群体可以使用该框架来适应性管理 WUI 未来的野火风险; (5) 构建一个基于网络的、交互式的空间决策支持工具,以促进利益群体应用事前和事后决策框架。该项目的教育目标是:(1) 培训未来的从业者和科学家,对自然-人类耦合系统进行跨学科建模和分析,以管理未来的野火风险; (2) 提高利益共同体在替代气候变化、经济增长未来和土地利用政策未来下评估和管理 WUI 野火风险的能力; (3) 将研究成果纳入教育产品,以增加更广泛的社区对野火和野火风险的理解和认识。 FIRECLIM模型集成了景观火灾动力学模拟模型、结构着火评估模型、基于主体的行为模型以及气候变化和经济增长未来。我们将建立由相关社区代表组成的四个代理小组并与之合作,以确定最小化净野火风险或最大化防御性火灾措施投资预期回报的替代决策。我们对净野火风险的衡量有些独特,因为它同时考虑了野火的预期损失和预期收益。我们将使用自适应管理框架来评估代理商如何调整其与野火相关的决策,以适应未来的气候变化以及未来住宅开发向荒地地区的扩张,该框架对风险情况采用贝叶斯统计分析,对不确定情况采用极小最大遗憾标准。气候变化未来将基于IPCC情景,并将使用生态系统景观建模系统模拟荒地地区的住宅开发以实现替代经济增长和土地使用政策未来。该项目是同类研究中的第一个,旨在评估未来气候变化和未来住宅开发向荒地地区的扩张如何影响 WUI 的野火和野火风险。将研究成果纳入五种产品,以促进项目成果的传播,这些产品旨在提高更广泛的社区对野火和野火风险管理的认识和理解:(1) 决策支持工具,促进利益相关社区对未来野火风险的适应性管理; (2) 教育计划,使相关群体能够了解野火风险、气候变化、土地利用变化和经济发展之间的相互作用; (3) 关于野火在生态系统中的作用的新的为期一到两天的成人环境教育课程; (4) 一个交互式计算机模拟程序,允许用户在假设的 WUI 中交互式地模拟与野火相关的决策,以应对气候和经济增长的未来变化; (5) 一本暂定名为《管理荒地与城市交界处的未来野火风险》的书。此外,该项目还将培训未来的从业者和科学家如何管理未来的野火风险,并涉及一名来自澳大利亚的国际研究人员和研究生。项目人员包括来自迪肯大学(澳大利亚)、林登伍德大学(密苏里州)、蒙大拿大学、密苏里大学、美国林务局和美国地质调查局的科学家。机构合作者包括弗拉特黑德保留地的萨利什和库特奈联盟部落、弗拉特黑德县紧急服务办公室、弗拉特黑德县规划和分区、弗拉特黑德国家森林、冰川国家公园、蒙大拿州自然资源和保护部以及冰川研究所。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
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Anthony Prato其他文献
The Effectiveness of State Ethics Commissions on Curbing Corruption and the Effect of Corruption on State Economic Performance
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2018 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Anthony Prato - 通讯作者:
Anthony Prato
Developing A STEM+M Identity in Underrepresented Minority Youth Through Biomechanics and Sports-Based Education.
通过生物力学和体育教育,培养代表性不足的少数族裔青年的 STEM M 身份。
- DOI:
10.1115/1.4047548 - 发表时间:
2020 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Brittany P. Marshall;Amy Loya;John F. Drazan;Anthony Prato;Nicole Conley;S. Thomopoulos;K. Reuther - 通讯作者:
K. Reuther
Anthony Prato的其他文献
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