CNH: Assessing and Adaptively Managing Wildfire Risk in the Wildland-Urban Interface

该项目旨在提高蒙大拿州弗拉海德县的利益相关者(土地和荒地火灾管理机构、房主、土地开发商/房屋建筑商和社区/区域规划者)的能力，以根据未来的气候变化和未来住宅向荒地地区的扩张来评估和管理荒地-城市界面(WUI)的野火风险。该项目还将提高更广泛的社区(中学生、高中生、青少年和成人环境教育课程人员以及信息人员)对世界城市联盟野火的性质、好处和风险的认识和理解。该项目的研究目标是：(1)开发一个名为FIRECLIM的野火-气候模型，模拟气候变化、居民区向荒地的扩展和世界城市联盟的野火风险之间的复杂交互作用；(2)展示FIRECLIM模型如何被当地利益相关者用来在未来50年(2008至2058年)的替代气候变化和经济增长情景下做出最优的事前野火相关决策；(3)测试关于未来气候变化、未来向荒地地区的住宅扩张以及土地使用政策的变化可能如何影响未来WUI的未来野火和未来野火风险的几个假设；(4)开发一个事后决策框架，相关社区可以使用该框架来自适应地管理WUI未来的野火风险；以及(5)构建一个基于网络的、交互式的空间决策支持工具，以促进利益相关社区应用事前和事后决策框架。该项目的教育目标是：(1)培训未来从业人员和科学家对自然-人类耦合系统进行跨学科建模和分析，以管理未来的野火风险；(2)提高相关社区在替代气候变化、经济增长期货和土地利用政策期货下评估和管理西澳地区野火风险的能力；以及(3)将研究成果纳入教育产品，以增加更广泛的社区？S对野火和野火风险的理解和知识。FIRECLIM模型集成了景观火灾动力学模拟模型、结构着火评估模型、基于主体的行为模型以及气候变化和经济增长未来。我们将建立并与四个由利益相关群体代表组成的代理人小组合作，以确定将野火净风险降至最低或将防御性消防措施的预期投资回报最大化的替代决策。我们对野火净风险的衡量在某种程度上是独一无二的，因为它同时考虑了野火的预期损失和预期收益。我们将评估代理人如何使用自适应管理框架来调整其与野火相关的决定，以适应未来的气候变化和未来住宅开发到荒地地区的扩展，该框架对风险情况采用贝叶斯统计分析，对不确定性情况采用最小最大遗憾标准。气候变化的未来将基于政府间气候变化专门委员会的情景，并将使用生态系统景观建模系统模拟荒野地区的住宅开发以实现替代经济增长和土地利用政策未来。该项目是第一个评估未来气候变化和未来将住宅开发扩展到荒地地区如何影响WUI的野火和野火风险的此类研究。项目成果的传播将通过将研究成果整合到五个旨在改善更广泛社区的产品中来促进--S对野火和野火风险管理的知识和理解：(1)决策支持工具，促进相关社区对未来野火风险的适应性管理；(2)教育计划，使相关社区能够了解野火风险、气候变化、土地利用变化和经济发展之间的相互作用；(3)为期一到两天的新的成人环境教育课程，内容是野火在生态系统中的作用；(4)交互式计算机模拟程序，允许用户在假设的WUI中交互地模拟与野火相关的决策，以替代未来气候和经济增长的变化；以及(5)一本书，暂定标题为《在荒地-城市界面管理未来野火风险》。此外，该项目将培训未来的从业者和科学家如何管理未来的野火风险，并将有一名国际研究人员和来自澳大利亚的研究生参与。项目人员包括来自澳大利亚迪肯大学、密苏里州林登伍德大学、蒙大拿大学、密苏里州大学、美国林业局和美国地质调查局的科学家。机构合作伙伴包括Flathead保护区的南部Salish部落和Kotenai部落、Flathead县紧急服务办公室、Flathead县规划和分区、Flathead国家森林、冰川国家公园、蒙大拿州自然资源和保护部以及冰川研究所。

This project aims to enhance the capacity of stakeholders (land and wildland fire management agencies, homeowners, land developers/homebuilders, and community/regional planners) in Flathead County, Montana to assess and manage wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) in light of future climate change and future residential expansion into wildland areas. The project will also improve knowledge and understanding among the broader community (middle school students, high school students, persons in youth and adult environmental education courses, and information personnel) about the nature, benefits, and risks of wildfire in the WUI.Research objectives of the project are to: (1) develop a wildfire-climate model called FIRECLIM that simulates the complex interactions among climate change, expansion of residential development into wildland areas, and wildfire risk in the WUI; (2) demonstrate how the FIRECLIM model can be used by local stakeholders to make optimal ex ante wildfire-related decisions under alternative climate change and economic growth scenarios for the next 50 years (2008 to 2058); (3) test several hypotheses about how future climate change, future residential expansion into wildland areas, and changes in land use policy are likely to influence future wildfires and future wildfire risk in the WUI; (4) develop an ex post decision framework that the community of interest can use to adaptively manage future wildfire risk in the WUI; and (5) construct a Web-based, interactive, spatial decision support tool that facilitates application of the ex ante and ex post decision frameworks by the community of interest. Educational objectives of the project are to: (1) train future practitioners and scientists in interdisciplinary modeling and analysis of a coupled natural-human system for managing future wildfire risk; (2) improve the capacity of the community of interest to assess and manage wildfire risk in the WUI under alternative climate change, economic growth futures, and land use policy futures; and (3) incorporate the research results into educational products that increase the broader community?s understanding and knowledge of wildfire and wildfire risk. The FIRECLIM model integrates a landscape fire dynamics simulation model, a structure ignition assessment model, agent-based behavioral models, and climate change and economic growth futures. We will establish and collaborate with four agent panels composed of representatives of the community of interest to identify alternative decisions for either minimizing net wildfire risk or maximizing expected return on investment in defensive fire measures. Our measure of net wildfire risk is somewhat unique because it accounts for both the expected losses and expected benefits of wildfires. We will evaluate how agents can adapt their wildfire-related decisions to future climate change and future expansion of residential development into wildland areas using an adaptive management framework that employs Bayesian statistical analysis for the risk case and the minimax regret criterion for the uncertainty case. Climate change futures will be based on IPCC scenarios, and residential development into wildland areas for alternative economic growth and land use policy futures will be simulated using the Ecosystem Landscape Modeling System. The project is the first study of its kind to assess how future climate change and future expansion of residential development into wildland areas influences wildfire and wildfire risk in the WUI. Dissemination of project results will be facilitated by incorporating research results into five products designed to improve the broader community?s knowledge and understanding of wildfire and wildfire risk management: (1) a decision support tool that facilitates adaptive management of future wildfire risk by the community of interest; (2) educational programs that enable the community of interest to learn about the interactions among wildfire risk, climate change, land use change, and economic development; (3) a new, one- to two-day, adult environmental education course on the role of wildfire in ecosystems; (4) an interactive, computer simulation program that allows users to interactively simulate wildfire-related decisions for alternative future changes in climate and economic growth in a hypothetical WUI; and (5) a book tentatively titled Managing Future Wildfire Risk in the Wildland-Urban Interface. In addition, the project will train future practitioners and scientists in ways to manage future wildfire risk and involve an international researcher and graduate student from Australia. Project personnel include scientists from Deakin University (Australia), Lindenwood University (Missouri), The University of Montana, University of Missouri, the U.S. Forest Service, and the U.S. Geological Survey. Institutional collaborators include the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes of the Flathead Reservation, Flathead County Office of Emergency Services, Flathead County Planning and Zoning, Flathead National Forest, Glacier National Park, Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, and the Glacier Institute.