Collaborative Research: NSCC/SA: Terror, Conflict Processes, Organizations, & Ideologies: Completing the Picture

该奖项由国家安全、冲突与合作的社会和行为维度竞赛资助，该竞赛是国家科学基金会和国防部的联合项目。了解政府（特别是美国政府）的策略和战略在影响持不同政见者策略和策略的频率和严重性方面的效用和有效性对于成功限制暴力恐怖活动至关重要。本研究将通过具体说明从不同的社会科学文献和军事学说发展而来的政府-持不同政见者-大众公共互动的复杂自适应系统模型来解决这个问题。具体来说，该模型考虑了（1）大众对政治暴力的支持如何影响政府与异见人士互动的潮起潮落以及社交网络的出现和演变，（2）美国政府的外交、信息、军事和经济战略如何对政治暴力水平和社交网络的强度产生有意的、无意的、直接和间接的影响，以及（3）网络的演变和强度以及大众支持的强度如何影响政府镇压的水平。该模型的含义将使用双线性混合效应统计模型进行测试。该项目在学术和政策领域做出了贡献，从提高对政府和持不同政见者策略选择的学术理解，到为参与对抗暴力挑战者的从业者的努力提供信息。该项目对于如何约束和限制世界各地，特别是南亚、东亚和东南亚的暴力和恐怖活动具有重要意义。此外，该项目还生成了一套广泛的链接数据集，涉及 1997 年至 2008 年 31 个国家的行为者、团体、政府、外国行为者及其活动及其特征和网络结构。最后，该项目通过雇用研究生和本科生研究人员作为研究学徒，让他们接触新的方法，并使他们熟悉暴力政治冲突的跨学科研究，促进他们的专业发展。

This award was funded through the Social and Behavioral Dimensions of National Security, Conflict, and Cooperation competition, a joint venture between NSF and the Department of Defense. Understanding the utility and effectiveness of government, and in particular US government, tactics and strategies in influencing the frequency and severity of dissident' tactics and strategies is critical to successfully limiting violent terrorist activity. This research will address this question by specifying a complex adaptive systems model of government-dissident-mass public interactions developed from disparate social science literatures and military doctrine. Specifically, the model considers (1) how mass support for political violence affects the ebb and flow of government-dissident interactions and the emergence and evolution of social networks, (2) how US government diplomatic, information, military, and economic strategies yield intended, unintended, direct, and indirect effects on levels of political violence and the strength of social networks, and (3) how the evolution and strength of networks and the intensity of mass support affects levels of government repression. Implications of this model will be tested using bilinear mixed effects statistical models. The project makes contributions in both the academic and policy arenas ranging from improved academic understanding of government and dissident tactical choices to informing the efforts of practitioners involved in confronting violent challengers. The project has implications for how to constrain and limit violent and terrorist activities around the world and particularly in South, East, and Southeast Asia. Moreover, the project produces a set of extensive linked datasets on actors, groups, governments, foreign actors and their activities as well as their characteristics and network structures for 31 countries from 1997-2008. Finally, the project facilitates the professional development of graduate and undergraduate researchers by employing them as research apprentices, exposing them to new methodologies, and acquainting them with interdisciplinary studies of violent political conflict.