Collaborative Research: NSCC/SA: Terror, Conflict Processes, Organizations, & Ideologies: Completing the Picture

该奖项由国家安全、冲突和合作竞赛的社会和行为维度资助，该竞赛是国家科学基金会和国防部之间的合资企业。了解政府的效用和有效性，特别是美国政府，战术和战略在影响持不同政见者的战术和战略的频率和严重程度是成功限制暴力恐怖活动的关键。本研究将通过从不同的社会科学文献和军事理论中发展出来的政府-持不同政见者-大众公众互动的复杂适应系统模型来解决这个问题。具体来说，该模型考虑了(1)对政治暴力的大规模支持如何影响政府与持不同政见者之间的互动以及社会网络的出现和演变；(2)美国政府的外交、信息、军事和经济战略如何对政治暴力水平和社会网络的强度产生有意的、无意的、直接的和间接的影响；(3)网络的演变和力量以及群众支持的强度如何影响政府镇压的程度。该模型的含义将使用双线性混合效应统计模型进行检验。该项目在学术和政策领域都做出了贡献，从提高对政府和持不同政见者战术选择的学术理解，到为参与应对暴力挑战者的从业者提供信息。该项目对如何约束和限制世界各地，特别是南亚、东亚和东南亚的暴力和恐怖活动具有启示意义。此外，该项目还生成了一套涵盖31个国家1997-2008年的行为者、团体、政府、外国行为者及其活动、特征和网络结构的广泛关联数据集。最后，该项目通过雇用研究生和本科生研究人员作为研究学徒，使他们接触新的方法，并使他们熟悉暴力政治冲突的跨学科研究，从而促进了他们的专业发展。

This award was funded through the Social and Behavioral Dimensions of National Security, Conflict, and Cooperation competition, a joint venture between NSF and the Department of Defense. Understanding the utility and effectiveness of government, and in particular US government, tactics and strategies in influencing the frequency and severity of dissident' tactics and strategies is critical to successfully limiting violent terrorist activity. This research will address this question by specifying a complex adaptive systems model of government-dissident-mass public interactions developed from disparate social science literatures and military doctrine. Specifically, the model considers (1) how mass support for political violence affects the ebb and flow of government-dissident interactions and the emergence and evolution of social networks, (2) how US government diplomatic, information, military, and economic strategies yield intended, unintended, direct, and indirect effects on levels of political violence and the strength of social networks, and (3) how the evolution and strength of networks and the intensity of mass support affects levels of government repression. Implications of this model will be tested using bilinear mixed effects statistical models. The project makes contributions in both the academic and policy arenas ranging from improved academic understanding of government and dissident tactical choices to informing the efforts of practitioners involved in confronting violent challengers. The project has implications for how to constrain and limit violent and terrorist activities around the world and particularly in South, East, and Southeast Asia. Moreover, the project produces a set of extensive linked datasets on actors, groups, governments, foreign actors and their activities as well as their characteristics and network structures for 31 countries from 1997-2008. Finally, the project facilitates the professional development of graduate and undergraduate researchers by employing them as research apprentices, exposing them to new methodologies, and acquainting them with interdisciplinary studies of violent political conflict.