CNH: Collaborative Research: Climate Change and Responses in a Coupled Marine System

a)技术描述：该项目重点关注大西洋沿岸中大西洋和新英格兰南部水域的冲浪蛤（Spisula solidissima）种群，以及围绕这种贝类资源的渔业和治理系统，在复杂和动态耦合系统的适应性和合作管理框架内。两个首要问题是：(1)气候强迫如何影响蛤的数量；(2)当前耦合系统的社会经济和监管方面如何适应气候变化的感知和记录影响。到目前为止，气候强迫还没有被认为是一个变量，在用于海蛤管理的科学模型。该项目将通过一套相互关联的数学和图解模式介绍气候强迫的环境方面，从而能够评估气候强迫造成的潜在后果。这项工作建立在该团队开发的两个模型之上，一个是基于遗传学的种群动态模型，另一个是耦合循环-幼虫模型，该模型将根据冲浪蛤的具体情况进行修改。建模的结果将提供给正式的库存评估过程，从而为管理层和行业决策提供信息。耦合系统的渔业组成部分及其对气候强迫和管理规则的直接影响的响应将从社会科学的角度进行研究，但将与生物物理分析相结合。特别令人感兴趣的是不断变化的环境条件如何改变渔业中的个人和集体行为，以及工业和管理行为者的行为如何反馈到生物系统中。空间选择分析将模拟行业对蛤蜊分布和丰度变化的反应。实验经济学将用于评估哪些因素对实现集体行动以应对渔业变化是重要的。民族志技术将用于探索知识的作用？特别是科学的和专业的模型，包括在这个项目中产生的场景？以及应对气候变化对渔业影响的私人和集体决策中的社会和经济关系。b)意义和重要性：海洋渔业受气候、海洋学条件、生物、渔业以及社会、经济和政治制度之间关系的影响。为了解决与过度捕捞、气候变化和环境压力相关的累积问题，该项目响应了对这些复杂性的更深入了解的需求。这些问题本质上是跨学科的；因此，对这些组成部分之间的相互作用进行协作研究，对于开发由最佳可用科学提供信息的治理机构这一更大目标是至关重要的。特别感兴趣的是气候变化对海洋渔业的影响，以及科学家和公共和私营部门的行动者如何感知、解释和应对这些影响。这些人类的反应会改变渔业未来的结果。这项研究的渔场是大西洋中部湾的冲浪蛤（Spisula solidissima）渔场，由于气候变暖，该渔场的数量出现了下降。这项研究将对生物群落的主要成员——冲浪蛤——对气候变化的反应进行全面的机制描述。生物群落的主要成员是该群落在地质时期进化的基石，这些基石物种对群落的稳定和长期资源的可用性至关重要。这项研究的重点是某一特定渔业，以发展一种新的范例，可用于从陆地到淡水和海洋系统的广泛领域。对气候变化引起的物种变化的机械描述将与人类系统的模型相结合。人类系统将包括推动渔业和监管机构决策的社会、经济和政治因素。使用这种方法，我们将描述耦合系统如何发展并探索管理选项。例如，气候变化带来的不确定性增加如何改变以市场为基础的法规的激励机制？当存在被气候变化夸大的人口空间分异时，结果是如何变化的？当渔业在决策中有很强的影响力时，物种的可持续性会有所不同吗？该项目将提高私营和公共部门团体有效应对气候变化日益严重影响的能力。使用与经济和社会方法相联系的最先进的海洋学和生态建模方法，为培养学生的各种学科提供了机会。提议的工作为本科生、研究生和博士后研究人员提供了一个独特的机会，可以在解决影响海洋系统的许多重要问题所需的各种方法上进行培训。教育部分与研究相结合，建立在现有的K-12教育计划的基础上，并与商业渔业等专业社区进行推广。

a) Technical description: The project focuses on the surf clam (Spisula solidissima) populations of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England waters of the Atlantic coast and the fishery and governance system surrounding this shellfish resource, within the framework of adaptive and cooperative management of complex and dynamic coupled systems. The two overarching questions are (1) how climate forcing affects surf clam populations; and (2) how the current socio-economic and regulatory aspects of the coupled system adjust to the perceived and documented effects of climate change. Heretofore climate forcing has not been considered as a variable in the scientific models used in surf clam management. The project will introduce the environmental aspects of climate forcing through a set of interconnected mathematical and schematic models that allow evaluation of potential outcomes that result from climate forcing. The work builds upon two models developed by this team, a genetics-based population dynamics model and a coupled circulation-larval model, which will be modified for the specifics of surf clams. Outcomes of the modeling will be available to the formal stock assessment process, which in turn informs management and industry decisions. The fishery component of the coupled system and its responses to direct effects of climate forcing as well as management rules will be studied from social science perspectives, but integrated with the biophysical analyses. Of particular interest are ways that the changing environmental conditions change individual and collective behavior in the fishery and that behavior of industry and managerial actors feeds back into the biological system. A spatial choice analysis will model industry responses to changes in clam distribution and abundance. Experimental economics will be used to assess what factors are important to achieving collective action in response to changes in the fishery. Ethnographic techniques will be used to explore the roles of knowledge?particularly scientific and lay models, including the scenarios generated in this project?and social and economic relationships in private and collective decisions about responding to the effects of climate change in the fishery. b) Significance and importance:Marine fisheries are influenced by relationships among climate, oceanographic conditions, biology, fishing industries, and social, economic, and political institutions. This project responds to the need for greater understanding of these complexities in order to redress the cumulative problems related to overfishing, climate change, and environmental stressors. The issues are interdisciplinary in nature; collaborative research on interaction among these components is therefore critical to the larger goal of developing governance institutions that are informed by the best available science. Of specific interest are the effects of climate change on a marine fishery and how those effects are perceived, interpreted, and responded to by scientists and by actors in the public and private sectors. Those human responses then modify the future outcomes in the fishery. The fishery of interest for this study, the surf clam (Spisula solidissima) fishery of the Mid-Atlantic Bight, has suffered a population decline that appears to be a result of climate warming. The study will develop a comprehensive mechanistic description of response to climate change by a dominant member of a biological community, the surf clam. The dominant member of a biological community is the cornerstone of that community as it evolves over geological time, and such cornerstone species are seminal to community stability and long-term resource availability. The study focuses on a particular fishery to develop a new paradigm that can be utilized in a broad arena from terrestrial to freshwater and marine systems. A mechanistic description of change in the species due to climate change will be coupled with the models of the human system. The human system will incorporate the social, economic, and political factors that drive the decisions in the fishing industry and regulatory agency. Using this approach we will characterize how the coupled system evolves and explore management options. For example how does increased uncertainty from climate change modify the incentives of market-based regulations? How are the outcomes changed when there is spatial differentiation of the population that is exaggerated by climate change? Is the sustainability of the species different when the fishing industry has a strong presence in decision-making? The project will enhance the ability of private and public sector groups to effectively respond to the increasing effects of climate-induced changes. The use of state-of-the-art oceanographic and ecological modeling approaches that are linked to economic and social approaches provides opportunities to train students in a variety of disciplines. The proposed work presents a unique opportunity for undergraduate and graduate students and postdoctoral investigators to be trained in the variety of approaches that are needed to solve many of the important problems affecting marine systems. The educational component is integrated with the research and builds on an existing K-12 educational program and outreach with specialized communities such as the commercial fishery.