CNH: Collaborative Research: Climate Change and Responses in a Coupled Marine System

A)技术说明：在对复杂和动态耦合系统进行适应性和合作性管理的框架内，该项目侧重于大西洋中大西洋和新英格兰南部大西洋沿岸水域的扇贝种群以及围绕这一贝类资源的渔业和治理系统。两个最重要的问题是：(1)气候强迫如何影响文蛤种群；(2)当前的社会经济和相关系统的监管方面如何调整，以适应气候变化的感知和记录的影响。到目前为止，气候强迫还没有被认为是用于扇贝管理的科学模型中的一个变量。该项目将通过一套相互关联的数学和示意性模型介绍气候强迫的环境方面，这些模型允许评估气候强迫造成的潜在后果。这项工作建立在该团队开发的两个模型的基础上，一个是基于遗传学的种群动力学模型，另一个是循环-幼虫耦合模型，该模型将根据海蚌的具体情况进行修改。建模的结果将提供给正式的库存评估流程，该流程进而为管理层和行业决策提供信息。将从社会科学角度研究耦合系统的渔业组成部分及其对气候强迫的直接影响和管理规则的反应，但将与生物物理分析相结合。特别令人感兴趣的是，不断变化的环境条件改变了渔业中的个人和集体行为，工业和管理行为者的行为反馈到生物系统中。空间选择分析将模拟行业对文蛤分布和丰度变化的反应。实验经济学将用来评估哪些因素对于实现集体行动以应对渔业的变化是重要的。将使用人种学技术来探索知识--特别是科学和非科学模型，包括本项目中产生的情景--以及社会和经济关系在应对气候变化对渔业的影响的私人和集体决策中的作用。B)重要性：海洋渔业受到气候、海洋条件、生物学、渔业以及社会、经济和政治机构之间关系的影响。该项目回应了更好地了解这些复杂性的需要，以便纠正与过度捕捞、气候变化和环境压力有关的累积问题。这些问题本质上是跨学科的；因此，对这些组成部分之间相互作用的协作研究对于发展以现有最佳科学为信息来源的治理机构这一更大目标至关重要。特别令人感兴趣的是气候变化对海洋渔业的影响，以及科学家以及公共和私营部门的行为者如何感知、解释和应对这些影响。然后，人类的这些反应改变了渔业的未来结果。这项研究关注的渔业是大西洋中部海湾的海蚌(Spisula Solidissima)渔业，其种群数量下降似乎是气候变暖的结果。这项研究将对生物群落中占主导地位的成员--海蚌--对气候变化的反应进行全面的机械描述。生物群落的主要成员是该群落的基石，因为它随着地质时间的推移而演变，而这种基石物种对群落的稳定和长期的资源可获得性是至关重要的。这项研究的重点是某一特定渔业，以开发可在从陆地到淡水和海洋系统的广泛领域利用的新范例。气候变化引起的物种变化的机械描述将与人类系统的模型结合在一起。人类系统将纳入推动渔业和监管机构决策的社会、经济和政治因素。使用这种方法，我们将描述耦合系统是如何发展的，并探索管理选项。例如，气候变化带来的不确定性增加如何改变以市场为基础的法规的激励因素？当气候变化夸大了人口的空间分化时，结果会发生怎样的变化？当捕鱼业在决策中有强大的存在时，物种的可持续性是否有所不同？该项目将提高私营和公共部门团体有效应对气候变化日益严重的影响的能力。使用与经济和社会方法相联系的最先进的海洋学和生态建模方法，为学生提供了在各种学科中进行培训的机会。拟议的工作为本科生和研究生以及博士后研究人员提供了一个独特的机会，使他们能够接受解决影响海洋系统的许多重要问题所需的各种方法方面的培训。教育部分与研究相结合，并建立在现有的K-12教育方案和与商业渔业等专业社区的联系基础上。

a) Technical description: The project focuses on the surf clam (Spisula solidissima) populations of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England waters of the Atlantic coast and the fishery and governance system surrounding this shellfish resource, within the framework of adaptive and cooperative management of complex and dynamic coupled systems. The two overarching questions are (1) how climate forcing affects surf clam populations; and (2) how the current socio-economic and regulatory aspects of the coupled system adjust to the perceived and documented effects of climate change. Heretofore climate forcing has not been considered as a variable in the scientific models used in surf clam management. The project will introduce the environmental aspects of climate forcing through a set of interconnected mathematical and schematic models that allow evaluation of potential outcomes that result from climate forcing. The work builds upon two models developed by this team, a genetics-based population dynamics model and a coupled circulation-larval model, which will be modified for the specifics of surf clams. Outcomes of the modeling will be available to the formal stock assessment process, which in turn informs management and industry decisions. The fishery component of the coupled system and its responses to direct effects of climate forcing as well as management rules will be studied from social science perspectives, but integrated with the biophysical analyses. Of particular interest are ways that the changing environmental conditions change individual and collective behavior in the fishery and that behavior of industry and managerial actors feeds back into the biological system. A spatial choice analysis will model industry responses to changes in clam distribution and abundance. Experimental economics will be used to assess what factors are important to achieving collective action in response to changes in the fishery. Ethnographic techniques will be used to explore the roles of knowledge?particularly scientific and lay models, including the scenarios generated in this project?and social and economic relationships in private and collective decisions about responding to the effects of climate change in the fishery. b) Significance and importance:Marine fisheries are influenced by relationships among climate, oceanographic conditions, biology, fishing industries, and social, economic, and political institutions. This project responds to the need for greater understanding of these complexities in order to redress the cumulative problems related to overfishing, climate change, and environmental stressors. The issues are interdisciplinary in nature; collaborative research on interaction among these components is therefore critical to the larger goal of developing governance institutions that are informed by the best available science. Of specific interest are the effects of climate change on a marine fishery and how those effects are perceived, interpreted, and responded to by scientists and by actors in the public and private sectors. Those human responses then modify the future outcomes in the fishery. The fishery of interest for this study, the surf clam (Spisula solidissima) fishery of the Mid-Atlantic Bight, has suffered a population decline that appears to be a result of climate warming. The study will develop a comprehensive mechanistic description of response to climate change by a dominant member of a biological community, the surf clam. The dominant member of a biological community is the cornerstone of that community as it evolves over geological time, and such cornerstone species are seminal to community stability and long-term resource availability. The study focuses on a particular fishery to develop a new paradigm that can be utilized in a broad arena from terrestrial to freshwater and marine systems. A mechanistic description of change in the species due to climate change will be coupled with the models of the human system. The human system will incorporate the social, economic, and political factors that drive the decisions in the fishing industry and regulatory agency. Using this approach we will characterize how the coupled system evolves and explore management options. For example how does increased uncertainty from climate change modify the incentives of market-based regulations? How are the outcomes changed when there is spatial differentiation of the population that is exaggerated by climate change? Is the sustainability of the species different when the fishing industry has a strong presence in decision-making? The project will enhance the ability of private and public sector groups to effectively respond to the increasing effects of climate-induced changes. The use of state-of-the-art oceanographic and ecological modeling approaches that are linked to economic and social approaches provides opportunities to train students in a variety of disciplines. The proposed work presents a unique opportunity for undergraduate and graduate students and postdoctoral investigators to be trained in the variety of approaches that are needed to solve many of the important problems affecting marine systems. The educational component is integrated with the research and builds on an existing K-12 educational program and outreach with specialized communities such as the commercial fishery.