CNH: Collaborative Research: Climate Change and Responses in a Coupled Marine System

CNH：合作研究：耦合海洋系统中的气候变化和响应

• 批准号: 0909338
• 负责人: Sylvia Brandt
• 金额: $ 17.5万
• 依托单位: University of Massachusetts Amherst
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-10-01 至 2015-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0909338&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Collaborative; Research; Climate; Change

a) Technical description: The project focuses on the surf clam (Spisula solidissima) populations of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England waters of the Atlantic coast and the fishery and governance system surrounding this shellfish resource, within the framework of adaptive and cooperative management of complex and dynamic coupled systems. The two overarching questions are (1) how climate forcing affects surf clam populations; and (2) how the current socio-economic and regulatory aspects of the coupled system adjust to the perceived and documented effects of climate change. Heretofore climate forcing has not been considered as a variable in the scientific models used in surf clam management. The project will introduce the environmental aspects of climate forcing through a set of interconnected mathematical and schematic models that allow evaluation of potential outcomes that result from climate forcing. The work builds upon two models developed by this team, a genetics-based population dynamics model and a coupled circulation-larval model, which will be modified for the specifics of surf clams. Outcomes of the modeling will be available to the formal stock assessment process, which in turn informs management and industry decisions. The fishery component of the coupled system and its responses to direct effects of climate forcing as well as management rules will be studied from social science perspectives, but integrated with the biophysical analyses. Of particular interest are ways that the changing environmental conditions change individual and collective behavior in the fishery and that behavior of industry and managerial actors feeds back into the biological system. A spatial choice analysis will model industry responses to changes in clam distribution and abundance. Experimental economics will be used to assess what factors are important to achieving collective action in response to changes in the fishery. Ethnographic techniques will be used to explore the roles of knowledge?particularly scientific and lay models, including the scenarios generated in this project?and social and economic relationships in private and collective decisions about responding to the effects of climate change in the fishery. b) Significance and importance:Marine fisheries are influenced by relationships among climate, oceanographic conditions, biology, fishing industries, and social, economic, and political institutions. This project responds to the need for greater understanding of these complexities in order to redress the cumulative problems related to overfishing, climate change, and environmental stressors. The issues are interdisciplinary in nature; collaborative research on interaction among these components is therefore critical to the larger goal of developing governance institutions that are informed by the best available science. Of specific interest are the effects of climate change on a marine fishery and how those effects are perceived, interpreted, and responded to by scientists and by actors in the public and private sectors. Those human responses then modify the future outcomes in the fishery. The fishery of interest for this study, the surf clam (Spisula solidissima) fishery of the Mid-Atlantic Bight, has suffered a population decline that appears to be a result of climate warming. The study will develop a comprehensive mechanistic description of response to climate change by a dominant member of a biological community, the surf clam. The dominant member of a biological community is the cornerstone of that community as it evolves over geological time, and such cornerstone species are seminal to community stability and long-term resource availability. The study focuses on a particular fishery to develop a new paradigm that can be utilized in a broad arena from terrestrial to freshwater and marine systems. A mechanistic description of change in the species due to climate change will be coupled with the models of the human system. The human system will incorporate the social, economic, and political factors that drive the decisions in the fishing industry and regulatory agency. Using this approach we will characterize how the coupled system evolves and explore management options. For example how does increased uncertainty from climate change modify the incentives of market-based regulations? How are the outcomes changed when there is spatial differentiation of the population that is exaggerated by climate change? Is the sustainability of the species different when the fishing industry has a strong presence in decision-making? The project will enhance the ability of private and public sector groups to effectively respond to the increasing effects of climate-induced changes. The use of state-of-the-art oceanographic and ecological modeling approaches that are linked to economic and social approaches provides opportunities to train students in a variety of disciplines. The proposed work presents a unique opportunity for undergraduate and graduate students and postdoctoral investigators to be trained in the variety of approaches that are needed to solve many of the important problems affecting marine systems. The educational component is integrated with the research and builds on an existing K-12 educational program and outreach with specialized communities such as the commercial fishery.

a）技术说明： 该项目的重点是大西洋沿岸中大西洋和新英格兰南部沃茨的海蚌种群，以及在复杂和动态耦合系统的适应性和合作管理框架内围绕这一贝类资源的渔业和治理系统。 两个首要问题是（1）气候强迫如何影响冲浪蛤种群;（2）耦合系统的当前社会经济和监管方面如何调整气候变化的感知和记录的影响。 在海蚌管理中使用的科学模型中，气候强迫没有被认为是一个变量。 该项目将通过一套相互关联的数学和示意模型介绍气候强迫的环境方面，这些模型可以评估气候强迫造成的潜在后果。这项工作建立在该团队开发的两个模型之上，一个是基于遗传学的种群动力学模型，另一个是耦合循环-幼虫模型，该模型将针对冲浪蛤的具体情况进行修改。建模的结果将提供给正式的库存评估过程，这反过来又为管理和行业决策提供信息。 将从社会科学的角度研究耦合系统的渔业组成部分及其对气候强迫的直接影响的反应以及管理规则，但将与生物物理分析相结合。特别令人感兴趣的是，不断变化的环境条件改变渔业中的个人和集体行为，以及工业和管理行为者的行为反馈到生物系统中的方式。空间选择分析将模拟行业对蛤蜊分布和丰度变化的反应。实验经济学将被用来评估哪些因素是重要的，以实现集体行动，以应对渔业的变化。 民族志技术将被用来探讨知识的作用？特别是科学和非专业模型，包括本项目中生成的场景？在应对气候变化对渔业影响的私人和集体决定中， B）意义和重要性：海洋渔业受到气候、海洋学条件、生物、渔业以及社会、经济和政治制度之间关系的影响。该项目回应了更好地理解这些复杂性的需要，以解决与过度捕捞，气候变化和环境压力有关的累积问题。 这些问题具有跨学科性质;因此，就这些组成部分之间的相互作用开展合作研究，对于发展以现有最佳科学为依据的治理机构这一更大目标至关重要。特别感兴趣的是气候变化对海洋渔业的影响，以及科学家和公共和私营部门的行为者如何看待、解释和应对这些影响。这些人类的反应然后改变渔业的未来结果。这项研究的兴趣渔业，冲浪蛤（Spisula soluminsima）渔业的中大西洋湾，遭受了人口下降，似乎是气候变暖的结果。这项研究将对生物群落的主要成员冲浪蛤对气候变化的反应进行全面的机械描述。生物群落的主要成员是该群落在地质时期演变的基石，这些基石物种对群落稳定和长期资源供应至关重要。这项研究的重点是一个特定的渔业，以发展一个新的模式，可用于从陆地到淡水和海洋系统的广泛竞技场。对气候变化引起的物种变化的机械描述将与人类系统的模型相结合。 人类系统将包括社会、经济和政治因素，这些因素推动渔业和监管机构的决策。使用这种方法，我们将描述如何耦合系统的演变和探索管理选项。例如，气候变化带来的不确定性增加如何改变基于市场的监管的激励机制？当人口的空间差异被气候变化夸大时，结果会如何变化？当渔业在决策中占有重要地位时，物种的可持续性是否不同？该项目将提高私营和公共部门团体有效应对气候变化日益严重的影响的能力。使用与经济和社会方法相联系的最先进的海洋学和生态建模方法，为培养各种学科的学生提供了机会。拟议的工作为本科生和研究生以及博士后研究人员提供了一个独特的机会，使他们能够接受解决影响海洋系统的许多重要问题所需的各种方法的培训。教育部分与研究相结合，并建立在现有的K-12教育计划和与商业渔业等专业社区的外联基础上。