DISSERTATION RESEARCH: Predicting Restoration Outcomes In Exotic-Invaded Ecosystems

恢复被外来、非本地植物物种入侵的栖息地往往具有挑战性。促进理想物种成功的努力必须与控制有害外来物种的努力相平衡。此外，在同样受到入侵的栖息地中，成功恢复的可能性和成本可能会有很大差异，因此很难预测。在本项目中，将以美国德克萨斯州的湿地和草地为研究对象，以外来中国牛脂树入侵为模型系统，更好地了解驱动恢复结果的机制。必要和适当的管理方法（以及相应的成本）取决于砍伐后油树恢复的强度。据推测，这取决于土壤湿度和当地牛油和本地植物种子的可用性。在12个不同湿度梯度的牛脂入侵栖息地，对湿度、本地种子有效性、牛脂种子有效性和管理方法进行了研究。每个地点的实验结果和初始生境特征数据将用于开发一个模型，根据地点特征预测恢复结果。除了促进对环境因素如何影响入侵和植物群落发展的理解外，这项工作将对保护和恢复产生更广泛的影响。预测恢复结果的能力可以让土地管理者优先考虑那些成功机会高、成本低的地方。这将在景观范围内增加成功恢复和牛脂控制的程度，使野生动物以及土地管理者和土地所有者受益。

Restoring habitats that have been invaded by exotic, non-native plant species is often challenging. Efforts to promote success of desired species must be balanced with efforts to control detrimental exotic species. Furthermore, likelihood of success and cost of successful restoration can vary dramatically among equivalently invaded habitats and thus are difficult to predict. In this project, wetlands and grasslands in Texas invaded by exotic Chinese tallow trees will be used as a model system to better understand mechanisms driving restoration outcomes. The necessary and appropriate management methods (and thus cost) depend on how intensely tallow trees return following their removal. This is hypothesized to depend on soil moisture and the local availability of tallow and native plant seeds. At 12 tallow-invaded habitats located across a moisture gradient, moisture, native seed availability, tallow seed availability and management methods will be manipulated. Experimental results and data on initial habitat characteristics from each site will be used to develop a model that predicts restoration outcomes based on site characteristics. In addition to advancing understanding of how environmental factors influence invasions and plant community development, this work will have broader impacts for conservation and restoration. The ability to predict restoration outcomes could allow land managers to prioritize efforts where chances of success are high and costs are low. This would increase the extent of successful restoration and tallow control on a landscape scale, benefiting wildlife as well as land managers and landowners struggling with tallow.