Collaborative Research for Developing ATD: Bayesian Methods in Syndromic Surveillance: CAR Models and Computational Implementation

该合作小组开发和实施计算的贝叶斯公式的综合征监测的目标是疾病爆发的早期检测。该研究涵盖了统计理论和方法，以及算法和计算科学。条件自回归模型，或CAR模型，形成的基础上制定，以适应空间以及时间的影响。主要的挑战是可扩展性（7，500家美国主要医院被链接到报告网络），多变量报告，数据中复杂的依赖结构，低数据质量以及区域和其他协变量的合并。统一的主题是不确定性的原则计算。研究的框架是一个具有国家意义的应用。疾病的早期发现具有巨大的社会和经济效益。风险是巨大的：美国技术评估办公室估计，如果不迅速发现，在华盛顿的上风处释放出100公斤的炭疽孢子，将导致多达300万人死亡和1万亿美元的经济损失。该研究产生了可操作的、易于解释的信息，为决策者提供支持：一份关于特定疾病在美国某个地方或特定城市出现的概率以及相关不确定性的明确声明。误报率得到了控制，使其与信号后调查可用的资源相称，并考虑到误报的心理和经济影响等后果。

The collaborative team develops and implements computationally of a Bayesianformulation of syndromic surveillance targeted at early detection of diseaseoutbreaks. The research spans statistical theory and methodology, as well asissues of algorithms and computational science. Conditional autoregressivemodels, or CAR models, form the basis of the formulation, in order toaccommodate spatial as well as temporal effects. The principal challenges arescalability (7,500 major U.S. hospitals are linked into the reportingnetwork), multivariate reports, complex dependence structure in the data, lowdata quality, and incorporation of regional and other covariates. The unifyingtheme is principled calculation of uncertainties.The research is framed by an application of national significance. There isenormous social and economic benefit from early discovery of disease. Thestakes are immense: the US Office of Technology Assessment estimates that arelease of 100 KG of anthrax spores upwind of Washington, DC would, if notdetected rapidly, lead to as many as three million deaths and a trilliondollars of economic losses. The research produces actionable, easilyinterpretable information that supports decision makers: a clear statement ofthe probability that a particular disease is present somewhere in the US, orpresent in a particular city, together with the associated uncertainty.False alarm rates are controlled, making them commensurate with resourcesavailable for post-signal investigation and taking into accountconsequences such as the psychological and financial impacts of a false alarm.