Doctoral Dissertation Research: Discrete Time-Series Cross-Section Models of Political Economy

博士论文研究：离散时间序列截面（TSCS）数据是包括政治学和经济学在内的各种学科中非常重要的数据类型。 TSCS数据具有时间和空间维度，因此具有丰富的分析结构。 然而，这种相关的数据结构邀请多个可能的误差来源，并提出了一些重要的方法挑战。本研究将开发一种新的方法来分析TSCS数据：贝叶斯广义线性多水平模型与二维随机效应和p阶自回归误差分析的时间和空间依赖的离散TSCS数据。 该模式使实务研究人员能够更好地了解所调查的动态过程，并进行比较研究。 估计所提出的模型的参数和执行计算，以促进模型比较是困难的和计算密集的。 本计画将透过设计一个混合式马尔可夫链蒙地卡罗演算法来解决这些技术上的困难，特别著重模拟效率。 为了便于模型的选择，本研究还将开发一种相对简单的计算贝叶斯因子的方法。 还将向实施所提出的模型和方法的科学界提供一个设计良好、用户友好和开放源码的R软件包，该项目将把该模型应用于国际政治经济领域的几个重要问题。在实质上，该模型将被应用于政治学中的“民主优势”理论的研究。

Doctoral Dissertation Research: Discrete Time-Series Cross-Section Models of Political EconomyDiscrete time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) data are a very important type of data in a variety of disciplines, including political science and economics. TSCS data have both a time and spatial dimension and are thus rich in structure for analysis. However, this correlated data structure invites multiple possible sources of error and raises several important methodological challenges.This research will develop a new method for analyzing TSCS data: a Bayesian generalized linear multilevel model with two-dimensional random effects and p-th order autoregressive errors for analyzing the temporal and spatial dependence of discrete TSCS data. The model empowers substantive researchers to better understand the dynamic process under investigation and to conduct comparative studies. Estimating the parameters of the proposed model and performing computations to facilitate model comparison are difficult and computationally intense. This project will solve these technical difficulties by designing a hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm with a special focus on simulation efficiency. To facilitate model choice, this research will also develop a relatively easy means of computing Bayes factors. A well-designed, user-friendly, and open source R package will also be provided to the scientific community that implements the proposed model and methods.This project will apply the model to several important questions in the field of international political economy. Substantively, the model will be applied to studying the "democratic advantage" theory in political science.