Third Party Peacemaking in Civil Wars: The Effectiveness of Information Providers.

外界如何帮助陷入致命冲突的各方和平解决分歧？这个问题经常被维和人员、政策分析家和学者提出。通过统计分析和深入的案例研究，本项目考察了冲突之外的个人和组织如何通过向交战各方提供信息，即作为调解人或顾问，为结束内战做出贡献。最近的研究已开始具体说明第三方对建立和平作出贡献的方式。第三方提供帮助的一种方式是为无法执行的和解条款提供担保。然而，这种保证的可信度往往是战斗人员严重关切的问题。为了说服各方承诺解决问题，第三方担保人可能必须部署压倒性的武力或表现出使用暴力的意愿。该项目侧重于成本较低且风险较小的第三方角色：提供信息。通过向战斗人员提出建议或建议，第三方可以帮助达成一项可自行执行的解决方案，因为它反映了力量的平衡和决心。信息提供者如何变得更有效？该项目测试了两项主要期望：1)早期和持续的建立和平比冲突后期的一次性努力更明智和可信，从而更有效；2)第三方可以通过提供发展援助、财政资源或其他投资来提高其信誉，表明它们对和平进程的真正承诺。关于1989年至2008年期间所有武装冲突中第三方维持和平的新数据库对这些期望进行了检验。这个新的数据集比当前的数据库提供了更多的细节。它包括关于第三方的信息，从知名人士（如纳尔逊·曼德拉）到国家代表，再到政府间组织（如联合国和欧洲联盟）。对非国家第三方（如个人、非政府组织和宗教行为者）给予特别关注。这个项目的一个重要方面是关注“高质量的和平”，而不仅仅是没有积极的战斗。它的重点不仅在于第三方如何有助于在内战中放下武器，而且还在于加强对人权的尊重和减少贫困。

How can outsiders help actors locked in deadly conflict settle their differences peacefully? This question is often raised by peacemaking practitioners, policy analysts, and academics. Using statistical analyses and in-depth case studies, this project examines how individuals and organizations outside the conflict can contribute to ending civil wars by providing information to the warring parties, i.e., by acting as mediators or advisors. Recent studies have begun to specify ways in which third parties contribute to peacemaking. One way third parties help is by guaranteeing the terms of an otherwise unenforceable settlement. However, the credibility of such guarantees is often a serious concern to the combatants. To persuade the actors to commit to the settlement, a third party guarantor may have to deploy overwhelming force or demonstrate willingness to use violence. This project focuses on a less costly and risky third-party role: providing information. By offering proposals or advice to the combatants, the third party can help bring about a settlement that is self-enforceable because it reflects the balance of power and resolve. How can information providers become even more effective? This project tests two main expectations: 1) that early and sustained peacemaking is more informed and credible, and thus more effective, than one-off efforts late in a conflict, and 2) that third parties can boost their credibility by providing development aid, financial resources, or other investments that demonstrate their genuine commitment to the peace process. These expectations are tested against a new database on third party peacemaking in all armed conflicts between 1989 and 2008. This new dataset provides much more detail than current databases. It includes information on third parties ranging from prominent individuals, (e.g., Nelson Mandela), to representatives of states, to inter-governmental organizations (e.g., the United Nations and the European Union). Special attention is paid to non-state third parties (e.g., individuals, non-governmental organizations, and religious actors). An important aspect of this project is concern for "quality peace" and not just the absence of active fighting. It focuses not only on how third parties may contribute to the laying down of arms in civil wars, but also to increased respect for human rights and reduced poverty.