Third Party Peacemaking in Civil Wars: The Effectiveness of Information Providers.

内战中的第三方缔造和平：信息提供者的有效性。

• 批准号: 0921818
• 负责人: Erik Melander
• 金额: $ 21.07万
• 依托单位: University of Notre Dame
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-01 至 2012-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0921818&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Third; Party; Peacemaking; Civil; Wars

How can outsiders help actors locked in deadly conflict settle their differences peacefully? This question is often raised by peacemaking practitioners, policy analysts, and academics. Using statistical analyses and in-depth case studies, this project examines how individuals and organizations outside the conflict can contribute to ending civil wars by providing information to the warring parties, i.e., by acting as mediators or advisors. Recent studies have begun to specify ways in which third parties contribute to peacemaking. One way third parties help is by guaranteeing the terms of an otherwise unenforceable settlement. However, the credibility of such guarantees is often a serious concern to the combatants. To persuade the actors to commit to the settlement, a third party guarantor may have to deploy overwhelming force or demonstrate willingness to use violence. This project focuses on a less costly and risky third-party role: providing information. By offering proposals or advice to the combatants, the third party can help bring about a settlement that is self-enforceable because it reflects the balance of power and resolve. How can information providers become even more effective? This project tests two main expectations: 1) that early and sustained peacemaking is more informed and credible, and thus more effective, than one-off efforts late in a conflict, and 2) that third parties can boost their credibility by providing development aid, financial resources, or other investments that demonstrate their genuine commitment to the peace process. These expectations are tested against a new database on third party peacemaking in all armed conflicts between 1989 and 2008. This new dataset provides much more detail than current databases. It includes information on third parties ranging from prominent individuals, (e.g., Nelson Mandela), to representatives of states, to inter-governmental organizations (e.g., the United Nations and the European Union). Special attention is paid to non-state third parties (e.g., individuals, non-governmental organizations, and religious actors). An important aspect of this project is concern for "quality peace" and not just the absence of active fighting. It focuses not only on how third parties may contribute to the laying down of arms in civil wars, but also to increased respect for human rights and reduced poverty.

局外人如何帮助陷入致命冲突的参与者和平解决分歧？这个问题经常由调解实践者、政策分析师和学者提出。该项目利用统计分析和深入的案例研究，探讨冲突之外的个人和组织如何通过向交战各方提供信息（即充当调解人或顾问）来为结束内战做出贡献。 最近的研究已经开始具体说明第三方为建立和平做出贡献的方式。第三方提供帮助的一种方式是保证原本无法执行的和解协议的条款。然而，此类保证的可信度往往是战斗人员严重关切的问题。为了说服参与者承诺达成和解，第三方担保人可能必须部署压倒性的武力或表现出使用暴力的意愿。该项目侧重于成本较低且风险较小的第三方角色：提供信息。通过向战斗双方提供建议或建议，第三方可以帮助达成可自我执行的解决方案，因为它反映了权力和决心的平衡。信息提供者如何变得更加有效？该项目测试了两个主要期望：1）早期和持续的和平建设比冲突后期的一次性努力更加明智和可信，因此也更加有效；2）第三方可以通过提供发展援助、财政资源或其他投资来提高其可信度，以表明其对和平进程的真正承诺。这些期望通过一个关于 1989 年至 2008 年所有武装冲突中第三方缔造和平的新数据库进行了测试。这个新数据集提供了比现有数据库更多的细节。它包括有关第三方的信息，从知名人士（例如纳尔逊·曼德拉）到国家代表，再到政府间组织（例如联合国和欧盟）。特别关注非国家第三方（例如个人、非政府组织和宗教行为者）。该项目的一个重要方面是对“高质量和平”的关注，而不仅仅是缺乏积极的战斗。它不仅关注第三方如何为在内战中放下武器做出贡献，而且还关注加强对人权的尊重和减少贫困​​。