Graphical versus Numerical Presentation of Quantitative Environmental Risk Information About Unexploded Ordnance

未爆炸弹药定量环境风险信息的图形与数字表示

• 批准号: 0922315
• 负责人: Jacqueline MacDonald Gibson
• 金额: $ 33.94万
• 依托单位: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-01 至 2011-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0922315&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Graphical; versus; Numerical; Presentation; Quantitative

An increasing amount of land in the United States that is contaminated with unexploded ordnance (UXO) is becoming available for conversion to civilian uses?a result of an ongoing military base restructuring campaign. UXO contamination results from the failure of ammunition launched during live-weapons training exercises to function as planned, leaving a legacy of ordnance items that have the potential to detonate if disturbed. Complete cleanup of UXO generally is not possible with existing technologies, so decisions must be made about how to balance the risks from UXO against the benefits of land conversion. This research provides the foundation for development of evidence-based risk communication materials concerning UXO. Federal agencies involved at UXO sites have expressed considerable skepticism about the public?s ability to comprehend quantitative information about UXO risks and in part for this reason have not pursued development of a quantitative UXO risk assessment approach. The qualitative methods currently in use, however, do not allow for risk-benefit analyses that could inform decisions about the extent of cleanup that should be required and the kinds of land uses that can be permitted afterwards. This research employs a new comprehensive risk assessment method that provides the quantitative risk information that would best inform this type of risk-benefit analysis. The present work examines how this quantitative risk information can best be communicated so that the public can understand and use the information to make informed decisions. In particular, the research team evaluates the effects of graphical versus numerical presentation of the risk information on both cognitive and affective responses to the risk information and how these responses, in turn, affect decision making. Further, this work examines the extent to which these effects hold equally for people with high and low ability to understand numerical risk information and whether specific presentational formats are necessary for people with different levels of numerical understanding. Ultimately, this research will lead to a citizenry that is better informed in making decisions concerning remediation and land reuse at UXO sites.

在美国，越来越多的受未爆炸弹药污染的土地可转为民用？这是正在进行的军事基地重组活动的结果。未爆炸弹药污染是由于实弹训练演习中发射的弹药未能按计划发挥作用，留下了一批受干扰时有可能引爆的弹药。利用现有技术一般不可能完全清除未爆炸弹药，因此必须决定如何平衡未爆炸弹药的风险和土地转用的好处。这项研究为编写关于未爆炸弹药的循证风险通报材料奠定了基础。参与未爆炸弹药现场的联邦机构对公众表示了相当大的怀疑？由于没有能力理解关于未爆炸弹药风险的定量信息，部分由于这一原因，没有制定定量的未爆炸弹药风险评估办法。然而，目前使用的定性方法不允许进行风险-效益分析，而风险-效益分析可以为关于应要求的清理程度和之后可以允许的土地用途的决定提供信息。本研究采用了一种新的综合风险评估方法，该方法提供了最能为此类风险-受益分析提供信息的定量风险信息。 目前的工作探讨如何才能最好地传达这种定量风险信息，使公众能够理解和使用的信息，作出明智的决定。特别是，研究小组评估了风险信息的图形与数字呈现对风险信息的认知和情感反应的影响，以及这些反应如何反过来影响决策。此外，这项工作探讨在何种程度上，这些影响同样适用于高，低能力的人理解数字风险信息，以及特定的演示格式是否有必要的人与不同水平的数字理解。最终，这项研究将使公民更好地了解有关未爆炸弹药场地补救和土地再利用的决策。