Graphical versus Numerical Presentation of Quantitative Environmental Risk Information About Unexploded Ordnance

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An increasing amount of land in the United States that is contaminated with unexploded ordnance (UXO) is becoming available for conversion to civilian uses?a result of an ongoing military base restructuring campaign. UXO contamination results from the failure of ammunition launched during live-weapons training exercises to function as planned, leaving a legacy of ordnance items that have the potential to detonate if disturbed. Complete cleanup of UXO generally is not possible with existing technologies, so decisions must be made about how to balance the risks from UXO against the benefits of land conversion. This research provides the foundation for development of evidence-based risk communication materials concerning UXO. Federal agencies involved at UXO sites have expressed considerable skepticism about the public?s ability to comprehend quantitative information about UXO risks and in part for this reason have not pursued development of a quantitative UXO risk assessment approach. The qualitative methods currently in use, however, do not allow for risk-benefit analyses that could inform decisions about the extent of cleanup that should be required and the kinds of land uses that can be permitted afterwards. This research employs a new comprehensive risk assessment method that provides the quantitative risk information that would best inform this type of risk-benefit analysis. The present work examines how this quantitative risk information can best be communicated so that the public can understand and use the information to make informed decisions. In particular, the research team evaluates the effects of graphical versus numerical presentation of the risk information on both cognitive and affective responses to the risk information and how these responses, in turn, affect decision making. Further, this work examines the extent to which these effects hold equally for people with high and low ability to understand numerical risk information and whether specific presentational formats are necessary for people with different levels of numerical understanding. Ultimately, this research will lead to a citizenry that is better informed in making decisions concerning remediation and land reuse at UXO sites.