Collaborative Research: Modeling the Efficacy of Inventory for Extreme Event Preparedness Decision Making in Interdependent Systems

协作研究：对相互依赖系统中极端事件防备决策库存的有效性进行建模

• 批准号: 0927299
• 负责人: Kash Barker
• 金额: $ 23.92万
• 依托单位: University of Oklahoma Norman Campus
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-08-15 至 2012-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0927299&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Modeling; Efficacy; Inventory

Making decisions to prepare for disruptive events, potentially of an extreme nature, must consider infrastructural, economic, and social consequences. All of these consequences have interdependent effects, e.g., a consequence experienced in one infrastructure sector may cause ripple effects due to the interconnected nature of U.S. infrastructures. The intellectual merit of this study is to develop a methodology which integrates sector-specific inventory models with an analysis of such interdependent effects. As such, the cost-benefit effectiveness of maintaining inventory (and thus restoring the ability of sectors to meet demand, or vital services in the case of public sectors) need to be measured. The research develops a modeling enterprise, which accounts for model parameters that vary over time and may be uncertain (i.e., the ability to understand the effects of many disruptive events is highly uncertain). This modeling enterprise serves to understand, and to some extent predict, recovery following disruptive events as well as to improve the ability to make decisions to prepare for such events ahead of time. A graphical user interface is programmed to integrate data, model formulations, and scenario templates, which facilitates the analysis of two separate case studies: (i) Oklahoma ice storm, and (ii) Virginia hurricane. This effort supports research pursuits for students at both undergraduate and graduate levels.Application of the integrated methodology provides insights to making decisions with multiple objectives in mind, answering policy questions such as: (i) what portfolio of key sectors would give the greatest "bang for the buck" in terms of investments in inventory? And (ii) what criteria can decision makers use in balancing inventory in terms of economic metrics (e.g., cost reduction), social metrics (e.g., evenly-dispersed management of disruptions across all sectors), and other applicable metrics? This research generates significant broader impact contributions: (i) inclusion of emergency preparedness policy makers to advise the research, (ii) impact analysis of extreme events on underprivileged communities, (iii) development of a web portal for discussion of research findings with other institutions, (iv) publications in specialized journals and presentations at national conferences, and (v) educational training programs and initiatives that explicitly involve minority students.

为应对可能具有极端性质的破坏性事件做出准备的决策必须考虑基础设施、经济和社会后果。 所有这些后果都具有相互依存的影响，例如，由于美国基础设施的相互关联性，一个基础设施部门经历的后果可能会引起连锁反应。 这项研究的智力价值在于开发了一种方法，将特定部门的库存模型与对这种相互依赖的影响的分析相结合。 因此，需要衡量维持库存（从而恢复各部门满足需求或公共部门重要服务的能力）的成本效益。 该研究开发了一个建模企业，它考虑了随时间变化且可能不确定的模型参数（即理解许多破坏性事件影响的能力是高度不确定的）。该建模企业旨在了解并在某种程度上预测破坏性事件后的恢复，以及提高提前为此类事件做好准备的决策能力。 图形用户界面被编程为集成数据、模型公式和情景模板，这有助于分析两个单独的案例研究：(i) 俄克拉荷马州冰暴和 (ii) 弗吉尼亚飓风。 这项工作支持本科生和研究生水平的学生的研究追求。综合方法的应用为制定具有多个目标的决策提供了见解，回答了政策问题，例如：(i) 就库存投资而言，哪些关键部门组合能够带来最大的“经济效益”？ (ii) 决策者可以在经济指标（例如，成本降低）、社会指标（例如，对所有部门的中断进行均匀分散的管理）和其他适用指标方面使用什么标准来平衡库存？ 这项研究产生了更广泛的影响：（i）让应急准备政策制定者为研究提供建议，（ii）极端事件对贫困社区的影响分析，（iii）开发一个门户网站，用于与其他机构讨论研究结果，（iv）在专业期刊上发表文章和在国家会议上进行演讲，以及（v）明确涉及少数族裔学生的教育培训计划和举措。