Collaborative Research: Modeling the Efficacy of Inventory for Extreme Event Preparedness Decision Making in Interdependent Systems

在为可能具有极端性质的破坏性事件做准备时，必须考虑基础设施、经济和社会后果。所有这些后果都具有相互依存的影响，例如，由于美国基础设施的相互关联性质，一个基础设施部门经历的后果可能会引起连锁反应。这项研究的学术价值在于制定了一种方法，将具体部门的清单模型与对这种相互依存的影响的分析结合起来。因此，需要衡量维持库存的成本效益效益(从而恢复各部门满足需求的能力，或在公共部门的情况下恢复重要服务的能力)。这项研究开发了一个建模企业，该企业考虑了随时间变化且可能不确定的模型参数(即，理解许多破坏性事件的影响的能力非常不确定)。该建模企业用于了解并在某种程度上预测破坏性事件后的恢复，以及提高提前为此类事件做好准备的决策能力。图形用户界面被编程为集成数据、模型公式和情景模板，这有助于分析两个独立的案例研究：(I)俄克拉荷马冰暴和(Ii)弗吉尼亚飓风。这一努力支持本科生和研究生的研究追求。综合方法论的应用为在考虑多个目标的情况下做出决策提供了洞察力，回答了以下政策问题：(I)就库存投资而言，什么关键部门的投资组合将带来最大的“性价比”？以及(2)决策者可以使用什么标准在经济指标(例如，降低成本)、社会指标(例如，均匀分布在所有部门的中断管理)和其他适用指标方面平衡库存？这项研究产生了重大的更广泛的影响贡献：(I)纳入应急准备政策制定者为研究提供建议，(Ii)极端事件对贫困社区的影响分析，(Iii)开发一个门户网站，与其他机构讨论研究结果，(Iv)在专业期刊上发表文章和在国家会议上发表演讲，以及(V)明确涉及少数族裔学生的教育培训方案和倡议。

Making decisions to prepare for disruptive events, potentially of an extreme nature, must consider infrastructural, economic, and social consequences. All of these consequences have interdependent effects, e.g., a consequence experienced in one infrastructure sector may cause ripple effects due to the interconnected nature of U.S. infrastructures. The intellectual merit of this study is to develop a methodology which integrates sector-specific inventory models with an analysis of such interdependent effects. As such, the cost-benefit effectiveness of maintaining inventory (and thus restoring the ability of sectors to meet demand, or vital services in the case of public sectors) need to be measured. The research develops a modeling enterprise, which accounts for model parameters that vary over time and may be uncertain (i.e., the ability to understand the effects of many disruptive events is highly uncertain). This modeling enterprise serves to understand, and to some extent predict, recovery following disruptive events as well as to improve the ability to make decisions to prepare for such events ahead of time. A graphical user interface is programmed to integrate data, model formulations, and scenario templates, which facilitates the analysis of two separate case studies: (i) Oklahoma ice storm, and (ii) Virginia hurricane. This effort supports research pursuits for students at both undergraduate and graduate levels.Application of the integrated methodology provides insights to making decisions with multiple objectives in mind, answering policy questions such as: (i) what portfolio of key sectors would give the greatest "bang for the buck" in terms of investments in inventory? And (ii) what criteria can decision makers use in balancing inventory in terms of economic metrics (e.g., cost reduction), social metrics (e.g., evenly-dispersed management of disruptions across all sectors), and other applicable metrics? This research generates significant broader impact contributions: (i) inclusion of emergency preparedness policy makers to advise the research, (ii) impact analysis of extreme events on underprivileged communities, (iii) development of a web portal for discussion of research findings with other institutions, (iv) publications in specialized journals and presentations at national conferences, and (v) educational training programs and initiatives that explicitly involve minority students.