Collaborative Research: Modeling the Efficacy of Inventory for Extreme Event Preparedness Decision Making in Interdependent Systems

为应对可能具有极端性质的破坏性事件做出决策时，必须考虑基础设施、经济和社会后果。 所有这些后果都有相互依存的影响，例如，由于美国基础设施的相互关联性质，在一个基础设施部门经历的后果可能会引起涟漪反应。 这项研究的学术价值是制定一种方法，将具体部门的清单模型与对这种相互依存影响的分析结合起来。 因此，需要衡量维持库存（从而恢复各部门满足需求的能力，或公共部门的关键服务）的成本效益。 该研究开发了一个建模企业，该企业考虑了随时间变化并且可能不确定的模型参数（即，理解许多破坏性事件的影响的能力是高度不确定的）。这种建模企业有助于理解并在一定程度上预测破坏性事件后的恢复，并提高决策能力，提前为此类事件做好准备。 一个图形用户界面编程集成数据，模型配方，和场景模板，这有利于两个独立的案例研究分析：（i）俄克拉荷马州冰风暴，（ii）弗吉尼亚州的飓风。 这一努力支持本科生和研究生的研究追求。综合方法的应用提供了在考虑多个目标的情况下做出决策的见解，回答了政策问题，如：（i）就库存投资而言，什么关键部门的投资组合将带来最大的“效益”？以及（ii）决策者可以使用什么标准来平衡经济指标方面的库存（例如，成本降低），社会度量（例如，在所有部门中均匀分散的中断管理），以及其他适用的指标？ 这项研究产生了重大的更广泛的影响贡献：㈠让应急准备政策制定者为研究提供咨询意见，㈡分析极端事件对贫困社区的影响，㈢开发一个门户网站，与其他机构讨论研究结果，㈣在专业期刊上发表文章，并在国家会议上发言，以及（v）明确让少数民族学生参与的教育培训方案和举措。

Making decisions to prepare for disruptive events, potentially of an extreme nature, must consider infrastructural, economic, and social consequences. All of these consequences have interdependent effects, e.g., a consequence experienced in one infrastructure sector may cause ripple effects due to the interconnected nature of U.S. infrastructures. The intellectual merit of this study is to develop a methodology which integrates sector-specific inventory models with an analysis of such interdependent effects. As such, the cost-benefit effectiveness of maintaining inventory (and thus restoring the ability of sectors to meet demand, or vital services in the case of public sectors) need to be measured. The research develops a modeling enterprise, which accounts for model parameters that vary over time and may be uncertain (i.e., the ability to understand the effects of many disruptive events is highly uncertain). This modeling enterprise serves to understand, and to some extent predict, recovery following disruptive events as well as to improve the ability to make decisions to prepare for such events ahead of time. A graphical user interface is programmed to integrate data, model formulations, and scenario templates, which facilitates the analysis of two separate case studies: (i) Oklahoma ice storm, and (ii) Virginia hurricane. This effort supports research pursuits for students at both undergraduate and graduate levels.Application of the integrated methodology provides insights to making decisions with multiple objectives in mind, answering policy questions such as: (i) what portfolio of key sectors would give the greatest "bang for the buck" in terms of investments in inventory? And (ii) what criteria can decision makers use in balancing inventory in terms of economic metrics (e.g., cost reduction), social metrics (e.g., evenly-dispersed management of disruptions across all sectors), and other applicable metrics? This research generates significant broader impact contributions: (i) inclusion of emergency preparedness policy makers to advise the research, (ii) impact analysis of extreme events on underprivileged communities, (iii) development of a web portal for discussion of research findings with other institutions, (iv) publications in specialized journals and presentations at national conferences, and (v) educational training programs and initiatives that explicitly involve minority students.