Collaborative Research: Modeling the Efficacy of Inventory for Extreme Event Preparedness Decision Making in Interdependent Systems

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Making decisions to prepare for disruptive events, potentially of an extreme nature, must consider infrastructural, economic, and social consequences. All of these consequences have interdependent effects, e.g., a consequence experienced in one infrastructure sector may cause ripple effects due to the interconnected nature of U.S. infrastructures. The intellectual merit of this study is to develop a methodology which integrates sector-specific inventory models with an analysis of such interdependent effects. As such, the cost-benefit effectiveness of maintaining inventory (and thus restoring the ability of sectors to meet demand, or vital services in the case of public sectors) need to be measured. The research develops a modeling enterprise, which accounts for model parameters that vary over time and may be uncertain (i.e., the ability to understand the effects of many disruptive events is highly uncertain). This modeling enterprise serves to understand, and to some extent predict, recovery following disruptive events as well as to improve the ability to make decisions to prepare for such events ahead of time. A graphical user interface is programmed to integrate data, model formulations, and scenario templates, which facilitates the analysis of two separate case studies: (i) Oklahoma ice storm, and (ii) Virginia hurricane. This effort supports research pursuits for students at both undergraduate and graduate levels.Application of the integrated methodology provides insights to making decisions with multiple objectives in mind, answering policy questions such as: (i) what portfolio of key sectors would give the greatest "bang for the buck" in terms of investments in inventory? And (ii) what criteria can decision makers use in balancing inventory in terms of economic metrics (e.g., cost reduction), social metrics (e.g., evenly-dispersed management of disruptions across all sectors), and other applicable metrics? This research generates significant broader impact contributions: (i) inclusion of emergency preparedness policy makers to advise the research, (ii) impact analysis of extreme events on underprivileged communities, (iii) development of a web portal for discussion of research findings with other institutions, (iv) publications in specialized journals and presentations at national conferences, and (v) educational training programs and initiatives that explicitly involve minority students.