Collaborative Research: Forecast Generation and Dissemination for the Record Setting 2009 Red River Flood

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Collaborative Research: Forecast Generation and Dissemination for the Record Setting 2009 Red River Flood.AbstractThe current unprecedented hydrologic conditions on the Red River of the North provide a rare opportunity to document the role and interactions of human forecasters in the forecast generation and dissemination process. To respond to this uncommon opportunity the University of Iowa and the University of Maryland Baltimore County propose Rapid Response Research to continue our ongoing collaborative monitoring and documentation of the forecasting process for the Red River through the spring snowmelt season. The proposed work will capture and archive key transient information needed to support future research on hydrologic forecast quality and forecast value for low-probability high-consequence events. The proposed activities will yield: (1) an archive of forecast information and operational forecast interpretation by human forecasters at the NWS, (2) an assessment of the baseline quality of forecast models and the value-added by the human forecasters, and (3) documentation of the users of these forecasts, including the participants and information flows from NWS forecast dissemination conference calls, and forecast uses institutionalized in emergency response plans.