Collaborative Research: BoCP-Implementation: Integrating Traits, Phylogenies and Distributional Data to Forecast Risks and Resilience of North American Plants

题目：合作研究：BoCP-Implementation：整合特征、系统发育和分布数据来预测北美植物的风险和恢复力北美约38,000种种子植物被组合成一系列反映地质和气候多样性的群落，并具有动态进化历史。这些物种约占世界种子植物区系的22%，具有广泛的生态和特征。尽管付出了相当大的努力，但我们不了解为什么有些谱系和地区在应对加速的气候和土地利用变化方面似乎比其他谱系和地区更有弹性。通过这项研究，我们将在整个大陆范围内对种子植物的多样性以及它们过去、现在和未来的分布模式进行调查。由此产生的信息对于面对快速的全球变化的谱系和社区的弹性进行预测和建模至关重要。这项研究的核心将是对植物性状及其进化史的研究，这将为评估是什么形成了群落，并确定在我们不断变化的星球上，哪些谱系可能是赢家或输家提供新的手段。这项工作还将为植物生物界提供资源，并将通过高度重视培训、与保护成果相联系以及与传统生态知识相联系的集中努力来帮助能力建设。此外，该项目的一个主要组成部分是提高北美生物多样性科学、社区资源开发、将基础科学转化为保护政策的能力，以及扩大科学参与。该项目还将包括高中生、教师、本科生和更广泛的研究界的资源开发、培训和参与。北美的植物多样性是由几千年来的各种力量形成的，只有在这个更大的背景下才能理解决定植物群现在和未来状态的生态进化动态。我们的科学目标有三个方面，都涉及到一个框架的发展，以整合生物多样性动态的关键方面，并利用这些作为一种手段来预测未来北美植物对环境变化的反应。首先，我们将收集历史和当前特征多样性的详细视图，以及整个大陆的地方性。这些措施将使我们能够测试在更长的时间尺度上运行的潜在机制，这些机制导致了谱系和特征在整个大陆范围内的不同分布模式；其次，我们将研究过去75年的分布趋势，以全面覆盖北美植物特征的物种样本子集，以测试特征-分布关系，并发现哪些特征与面对气候变化和土地利用等压力源时的恢复力有关。最后，我们将把前两个目标联系在一起来预测植物多样性的变化，我们将使用这些预测来告知数据驱动的关于谱系和地理区域保护优先级的决策。这些关于北美植物群的关键见解也将有助于理解依赖于这些植物群落的许多动物和真菌群落的生态进化过程。这个项目的大范围和规模创造了解决一些关于北美植物区系的最重要和最紧迫的问题的潜力。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Title: Collaborative Research: BoCP-Implementation: Integrating Traits, Phylogenies and Distributional Data to Forecast Risks and Resilience of North American PlantsApproximately 38,000 species of seed plants in North America are assembled into an array of communities that reflect diversity in geology and climate, and which have dynamic evolutionary histories. These species represent approximately 22% of the world’s seed plant flora and an enormous range of ecologies and traits. Despite considerable effort, we lack an understanding of why some lineages and regions seem to be more resilient than others in response to accelerating climate and land use changes. With this study, we will conduct a continent-wide examination of the diversity of seed plants, along with their patterns of distribution - past, present, and future. The resulting information will be essential for predicting and modeling the resilience of lineages and communities in the face of rapid global change. Central to this research will be an examination of plant traits and their evolutionary histories, which together will provide new means to assess what has shaped communities and to identify which lineages are likely to be winners or losers on our changing planet. This work will also provide resources for the plant biology community and will help build capacity through a strong focus on training, connecting to conservation outcomes, and a focused effort to link to traditional ecological knowledge. Furthermore, a major component of the project is to increase capacity in biodiversity science, community resource development, translation of fundamental science to conservation policy across North America, and broadening participation in science. The project will also include resource development, training, and engagement for high schoolers, instructors, undergraduates, and the broader research community.Plant diversity in North America has been shaped by forces operating over millennia, and eco-evolutionary dynamics determining the present and future state of the flora can only be understood in this larger context. Our scientific goals are threefold, all relating to the development of a framework for integrating key facets of biodiversity dynamics, and to use those as a means to predict future response of North American plants to environmental change. First, we will assemble a detailed view of historical and current trait diversity, as well as endemism across the continent. These measures will allow us to test potential mechanisms, operating over longer time scales, that have led to diverse continent-wide distributional patterns of lineages and traits; they can be further linked to climatic stability as an interacting driver of diversity Second, we will examine distributional trends over the last 75 years for a well-sampled subset of species that comprehensively cover the traits of North American plants in order to test trait-distribution relationships and to discover which traits are linked to resilience in the face of stressors such as changes in climate and land use. Finally, we will link the first two aims together to forecast changes in plant diversity, and we will use these forecasts to inform data-driven decisions regarding conservation prioritization of both lineages and geographic regions. These key insights for the flora of North America will also aid in understanding the eco-evolutionary processes underlying the many animal and fungal communities that depend on these plant communities. The large scope and scale of this project creates the potential to address some of the most important and pressing questions regarding the flora of North America.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.