Collaborative Research: Forecast Generation and Dissemination for the Record Setting 2009 Red River Flood

合作研究：创纪录的2009年红河洪水预报的生成和传播。摘要当前北方红河空前的水文条件为记录人类预报员在预报生成和传播过程中的作用和相互作用提供了难得的机会。为了应对这一难得的机会，爱荷华大学和马里兰大学巴尔的摩县提议进行快速反应研究，以继续我们正在进行的合作监测和记录红河在春季融雪季节的预测过程。拟议的工作将捕获和存档关键的瞬态信息，以支持未来对低概率高后果事件的水文预报质量和预测值的研究。拟议的活动将产生：(1)国家气象局人类预报员的预报信息和业务预报解释档案，(2)对预测模型的基线质量和人类预报员的增值进行评估，以及(3)这些预报的用户的文件，包括参与者和来自国家气象局预报传播电话会议的信息流，以及在应急响应计划中制度化的预报使用。

Collaborative Research: Forecast Generation and Dissemination for the Record Setting 2009 Red River Flood.AbstractThe current unprecedented hydrologic conditions on the Red River of the North provide a rare opportunity to document the role and interactions of human forecasters in the forecast generation and dissemination process. To respond to this uncommon opportunity the University of Iowa and the University of Maryland Baltimore County propose Rapid Response Research to continue our ongoing collaborative monitoring and documentation of the forecasting process for the Red River through the spring snowmelt season. The proposed work will capture and archive key transient information needed to support future research on hydrologic forecast quality and forecast value for low-probability high-consequence events. The proposed activities will yield: (1) an archive of forecast information and operational forecast interpretation by human forecasters at the NWS, (2) an assessment of the baseline quality of forecast models and the value-added by the human forecasters, and (3) documentation of the users of these forecasts, including the participants and information flows from NWS forecast dissemination conference calls, and forecast uses institutionalized in emergency response plans.