Collaborative research: The impact of stratospheric ozone depletion/recovery on Antarctic Climate

合作研究：平流层臭氧消耗/恢复对南极气候的影响

• 批准号: 0944103
• 负责人: Beate Liepert
• 金额: $ 16.57万
• 依托单位: NorthWest Research Associates, Incorporated
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-05-01 至 2013-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0944103&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; research; impact; stratospheric; ozone

AbstractA data analysis and modeling project seeks to quantify the changes acting on Antarctic climate over the coming century attributable to the recovery of stratospheric ozone. Anticipated as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol to reduce ozone depleting halocarbon emissions, the seasonal polar ozone holes are now showing signs of recovery. The current lack of a discernable global warming effect on much of the East Antarctic (EA) is thought to stem from stratospheric cooling in part brought about by successive annual ozone depletion events. A steepening of the polar vortex due to stratospheric cooling is accompanied by a strengthening of the westerly winds that circle the continent, which in turn lessens the meridional heat transfer from a warming Southern Hemisphere. As this stratospheric cooling is removed, a stronger warming of the EA is possible. A range of current global climate model outputs will be examined as to their ability to reproduce recent Antarctic climate conditions. Whether these can be reliably attributed to a single factor such as ozone or other (well mixed) greenhouse gases may enable future Antarctic climate responses to be better estimated. Antarctic climate variability, especially with respect to surficial melt at the coastal margins has important potential impacts on ice sheet mass balance and global sea-level rise in the coming century.

一个数据分析和模拟项目试图量化未来世纪平流层臭氧恢复对南极气候的影响。 由于《蒙特利尔议定书》预计将减少消耗臭氧的卤化碳排放，季节性的极地臭氧空洞现在显示出恢复的迹象。目前，南极东部大部分地区没有明显的全球变暖效应，这被认为是由于平流层冷却，部分原因是连续的年度臭氧消耗事件。由于平流层冷却导致的极涡变陡伴随着环绕大陆的西风的加强，这反过来又减少了来自变暖的南半球的纬向热传递。随着平流层冷却的消除，EA可能会更强烈地变暖。 将审查一系列当前全球气候模式的输出，以确定它们再现南极近期气候条件的能力。这些是否可以可靠地归因于一个单一的因素，如臭氧或其他（混合）温室气体可能使未来的南极气候反应更好地估计。南极的气候变化，特别是沿海边缘的表层融化，对未来世纪的冰盖质量平衡和全球海平面上升具有重要的潜在影响。