Effects of Stratospheric Change on the Arctic Environment

平流层变化通过气象效应和直接辐射强迫影响北极的气候。提议者将利用化学-气候-模型（这些模型对平流层动力学和化学有很好的描述）和海洋-大气层大气环流模型的各种模型结果，以及观测结果，以增进对平流层-对流层耦合的重要性以及北极天气和气候如何受到平流层变异影响的理解。该项目的一个具体目标是了解北极天气和气候的季节性和区域性变化，这些变化预计将在世纪因臭氧消耗和恢复而发生，并在气候模型中更真实地反映平流层的变化过程。将研究平流层扰动如何向下渗透到对流层的机制，以及这些扰动如何能够改变北极热力学和动力学表面过程，并最终改变北极海冰的密集程度。该项目将有助于我们了解平流层变化将如何影响北极气候。北极气候不仅影响生活在高纬度地区的人们，还影响脆弱的生态系统，并可能对全球范围的气候变化产生反馈（例如，甲烷从永久冻土释放和海洋环流的变化）。项目活动的目的是利用现有的模型运行和观测，增进对北极气候将如何变化的了解。主要的科学影响将是纵向整合北极气候变化跨学科科学，从深海到地表过程，再到对流层和平流层。该项目还将有助于教育和科学基础设施。教育活动包括指导博士后研究科学家，并为NWRA的扩展奖学金本科生提供研究项目。

Stratospheric changes influence the climate of the Arctic, through both meteorological effects and direct radiative forcing. The proposers will use a wide variety of model results from chemistry-climate-models (which have good representations of stratospheric dynamics and chemistry) and ocean-atmosphere GCMs, together with observations, to improve understanding of the importance of stratosphere-troposphere coupling, and of how Arctic weather and climate are affected by stratospheric variability. A specific goal of this project is to gain an understanding of the seasonal and regional changes in Arctic weather and climate that can be expected from ozone depletion and recovery in the 21st century with more realistically representation of stratospheric processes in climate models. Mechanisms will be investigated of how stratospheric disturbances penetrate downward to the troposphere and how these disturbances can modify Arctic thermodynamic and dynamic surface processes and ultimately Arctic sea ice concentration. This project will contribute to our understanding of how stratospheric change will affect Arctic climate. Arctic climate impacts not just people living at high latitudes, but delicate ecosystems, with potential feedbacks to global-scale climate change (e.g., methane release from permafrost and changes to the ocean circulation). The project activities are designed to improve understanding of how the Arctic climate will change, using existing model runs and observations. The main scientific impact will be to vertically integrate interdisciplinary Arctic climate change science, from the deep ocean, through surface processes, and up through the troposphere and stratosphere. The project will also contribute to education, and scientific infrastructure. The educational activities include mentoring of a postdoctoral research scientist and providing research projects for undergraduate students for an extended scholarship at NWRA.