Collaborative Research: SAM's Contribution to Increased Ocean Heat Content on the Continental Shelf of Western Antarctic Peninsula

南半球西风的加强所带来的南大洋变暖的动力及其与南极大陆架环流的相互作用，S 30-600年间盛行的绕极风在几个方面仍不确定。目前的全球气候模型(如IPCC/AR4)将西风带的加强归因于对流层温室气体的人为增加以及平流层臭氧水平的下降，平流层臭氧水平季节性地被观测为极地臭氧层空洞。其他的海洋动力过程也可能参与其中。这一数值和分析项目旨在进一步评估海洋热含量对目前在阿蒙森海和别林豪森海以及邻近快速变暖的南极半岛(WAP)终端冰流中观察到的加速变暖和冰下融化的贡献。帕尔默站LTER数据集的使用可追溯到1993年，它提供了一个观测系列，其中部分涵盖了大气环流和气温最有可能发生变化的时间段。使用区域海洋数值模式(3-D，完全动态)，在与南环状模式中观察到的(更积极的)趋势相对应的不同风况下，将有助于揭示该大陆这些敏感大陆架区域的气候变化动态。冰川和冰盖融化对全球海平面上升的影响在政府间气候变化专门委员会最近的评估中是一个公认的不确定领域，将是气候变化对本世纪社会的直接影响。

The dynamics of a warming Southern Ocean and its interactions with Antarctic continental shelf circulation patterns brought about by the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, circumpolar winds which prevail between 30 and 60 0 S, remains uncertain in several respects. Current global climate models (e.g. IPCC/AR4) attribute intensification of the westerlies to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases in the troposphere along with decreased levels of stratospheric ozone, seasonally observed as the polar ozone hole. Other dynamical oceanic processes may also be involved. This numerical and analysis project seeks to further evaluate the contribution of oceanic heat content to the accelerating warming and sub-glacial melting currently being observed in the terminal ice streams in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, and the adjacent rapidly warming Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). Use of the Palmer Station LTER data set, which extends back to 1993, provides a observational series which in part covers the time period where changes in atmospheric circulation and air temperatures are most likely to have taken place. Use of a regional oceanic numerical model (3-D, fully dynamic) under contrasting wind regimes corresponding to observed (more positive) trends in the Southern Annular Mode will shed light on the dynamics of climate change in these sensitive continental shelf regions of the continent. The impact of melting glaciers and ice sheets on global sea level rise is an acknowledged area of uncertainty in the most recent IPCC assessment, and would be a direct impact of climate change on society in this century.