OCI: Complex Adaptive Systems and the Threshold Effect: Views from the Natural and Social Sciences

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Most interesting phenomena in natural and social systems include constant transitions and oscillations among their various phases. Wars, companies, societies, markets, or humans rarely stay in a stable, predictable state for long. Randomness, power laws, and human behavior ensure that the future is both unknown and challenging. How do events unfold? When do they take hold? Why do some initial events cause an avalanche while others do not? What characterizes these events? What are the thresholds that differentiate a sea change from a non-event? The Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) method has proven to be a powerful tool for exploring these and other related phenomena. Our goal is to bring together researchers and students from diverse fields who study complex systems using the tools and techniques of CAS. We will highlight threshold effects in various disciplines as one avenue towards uncovering common dynamics that are found in these domains. Intellectual Merit. CAS as a discipline has grown tremendously since its inception nearly 25 years ago. Yet, despite its inherent interdisciplinary nature, CAS has grown in a "stovepipe" fashion within each discipline. There is a great need for increased collaboration and dialogue across the natural, physical, and social sciences. Our efforts to build a broad-based community of researchers and students addresses this need by bringing together a diverse set of organizers and participants. This particular symposium focuses on the threshold effect -- non-linear dynamics in complex systems -- as one avenue to encourage a cross-disciplinary conversation. Broader Impact. This symposium represents an important step for building a broader community of CAS researchers. It is important to not only provide a forum for young researchers and students to engage with each other, but also to learn from those with deep experience in their respective fields. Our symposium will be particularly useful for students to make connections with people who represent a broad range of disciplines and institutions.