EAGER: The Joint Ecological and Genetic Dynamics of Metapopulation Extinction

EAGER：种群灭绝的联合生态和遗传动力学

• 批准号: 0951188
• 负责人: Kevin Higgins
• 金额: $ 15.43万
• 依托单位: University South Carolina Research Foundation
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-01 至 2011-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0951188&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: EAGER; Joint; Ecological; Genetic; Dynamics

This project will examine the genetic and ecological changes that lead to extinction of species that live as a series of semi-separate, spatially localized populations (i.e., meta-populations) through computationally intensive analysis of an extensive empirical data set for many local populations of the Glanville fritillary butterfly. Because extinction is probabilistic and is affected by many factors and by non-linear relationships, it is a 'hard problem' for which general approaches and answers typically are lacking. This research will develop and test the ability of high-power computation to advance understanding of extinction. The project will pioneer application of recently-developed computationally-intensive software to understand the general pathways that can lead to extinction, to test the particular pathways followed by one species for which an extensive long-term data set is available, and to produce a user-friendly interface through which the software can be applied by others to estimate extinction risks and probabilities for other species. The research is risky, but has the potential for significant advancement of understanding through new computational approaches. The research has the potential to transform general understanding of the roles and interactions of genetic and ecological factors in populations whose patchy distribution and small population sizes may put them at risk of extinction. The project will result in publicly available open-access software. The research fosters an interdisciplinary and quantitative international collaboration. The results have significant applications to environmental management and conservation, particularly in times of environmental change.

这个项目将通过对格兰维尔贝母蝶许多当地种群的大量经验数据集进行密集的计算分析，来研究导致物种灭绝的遗传和生态变化，这些物种生活在一系列半分离的、空间上局部的种群(即元种群)中。由于灭绝是概率的，受许多因素和非线性关系的影响，这是一个通常缺乏一般方法和答案的“难题”。这项研究将开发和测试高功率计算的能力，以促进对灭绝的理解。该项目将率先应用最近开发的计算密集型软件，以了解可能导致物种灭绝的一般途径，测试一个物种遵循的特定途径，从而获得广泛的长期数据集，并产生一个用户友好的界面，通过该界面，其他物种可以应用该软件来估计其他物种的灭绝风险和概率。这项研究是有风险的，但有可能通过新的计算方法显著提高人们的理解。这项研究有可能改变人们对遗传和生态因素在种群中的作用和相互作用的普遍理解，这些种群的零星分布和较小的种群规模可能会使它们面临灭绝的危险。该项目将产生公开可用的开放获取软件。这项研究促进了跨学科和量化的国际合作。这些结果在环境管理和保护方面有重要的应用，特别是在环境变化的时候。