EAGER: The Joint Ecological and Genetic Dynamics of Metapopulation Extinction

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This project will examine the genetic and ecological changes that lead to extinction of species that live as a series of semi-separate, spatially localized populations (i.e., meta-populations) through computationally intensive analysis of an extensive empirical data set for many local populations of the Glanville fritillary butterfly. Because extinction is probabilistic and is affected by many factors and by non-linear relationships, it is a 'hard problem' for which general approaches and answers typically are lacking. This research will develop and test the ability of high-power computation to advance understanding of extinction. The project will pioneer application of recently-developed computationally-intensive software to understand the general pathways that can lead to extinction, to test the particular pathways followed by one species for which an extensive long-term data set is available, and to produce a user-friendly interface through which the software can be applied by others to estimate extinction risks and probabilities for other species. The research is risky, but has the potential for significant advancement of understanding through new computational approaches. The research has the potential to transform general understanding of the roles and interactions of genetic and ecological factors in populations whose patchy distribution and small population sizes may put them at risk of extinction. The project will result in publicly available open-access software. The research fosters an interdisciplinary and quantitative international collaboration. The results have significant applications to environmental management and conservation, particularly in times of environmental change.