Merging Agent-based Modeling Techniques and Ethnography: A New Analytic Tool for Studying Illicit Drug Use Behaviors, Markets and Economies

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

Dr. Lee D. Hoffer, will undertake research on the simulation of the operation of a local illegal drug market by synthesizing ethnographic decision tree and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) techniques as an innovative strategy for improving ethnographic analysis and utilization. The specific aims of this research are to: 1) conduct an ethnographic study of the local market that facilitates ABM development, 2) enrich these data using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) technologies, and 3) construct a social / economic simulation computer simulation that reproduces how the market operates. Complexity Theory suggests social structures emerge from non-linear interactions of heterogeneous actors changing, and being changed by, their environment. Investigating the emergent and dynamic social structures of a local drug market using ABM, the intellectual merits of this study involve the practical application of Complexity Theory in social science. While theoretical demonstrations of emergence using ABM are common, well articulated methods for real-world research applications of social simulation in anthropology are scarce. This project provides a framework for conducting experiments with findings from ethnographic fieldwork enhancing both the analytic and descriptive capabilities of the methodology. Constructing simulations representing results also expands the utility of ethnography to policymakers interested in understanding the outcomes of the environmentally embedded and socially constructed interactive behaviors that anthropologists study.This project has broad impacts on policy associated with both the illicit drug economy, as well as future uses of ethnography as a research methodology. Current knowledge about illicit drug markets is informed by two distinct literatures. The majority of research involves large-scale studies using data collected administratively from law enforcement, and other indirect epidemiological indicators. This research focuses on understanding associations and outcomes of the illicit drug economy. On the other hand, ethnographic research has described roles within this economy, transactions, and how local illicit drug markets and organizations operate. Both research perspectives are informative; however, neither individually is equipped to link levels of analysis. Researching the local drug market as a Complex Adaptive System using ABM will allow research to scale-up results, conduct experiments, and generate outcomes previously unavailable using other methods. This knowledge will provide a new perspective for constructing and evaluating policies and interventions to effectively reduce the impact of these activities.