Local labor market contexts and substance use in young and middle adulthood: Using agent-based modeling to guide substance use prevention strategies

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PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT: This K01 Mentored Research Scientist Development Award will provide the candidate, Sehun Oh, PhD., with protected time and resources to facilitate his transition to research independence in substance use and prevention research. Although we have been observing disconcerting rates of substance-related problems, including overdose (OD) deaths, in communities with declining economic opportunities (especially in the Appalachian and Rust Belt areas), we do not have firm theoretical and empirical evidence to explain how local labor market contexts may affect substance use (SU) and development of substance use disorder (SUD) and OD as well as what effective policy interventions might reverse the trends. Building on his interdisciplinary background in economics, substance use epidemiology, and social policy, the candidate will engage in structured training and research activities to acquire substantive and methodological expertise to elucidate the role of local labor market contexts in SU/SUD/OD. Specifically, the proposed career development plan is designed to achieve three training goals: (1) deepening the candidate’s understanding of local economic contexts (especially the types and qualities of available jobs) as a key etiology of substance use problems and its socioeconomic, physical, and behavioral health mechanisms; (2) developing expertise in agent-based modeling and supporting methods (causal inference and spatial analysis) for local SU/SUD/OD projections; and (3) gain hands-on experiences in research translation and dissemination to inform prevention policy development. A series of training activities have been carefully designed, including coursework in epidemiology, public policy, developmental economics and social work; individualized instruction; mentored training; and research collaborations over five years. This training also will be achieved by conducting a minimum of three research studies that address the following aims: (1) elucidating the role of the local labor market (re)structuring in SU/SUD among individuals in young/middle adulthood, (2) developing agent-based models to make SU/SUD/OD projections in Ohio until 2030 and to conduct policy experiments to assess the preventive effects of employment and substance supply-related interventions. To address these aims, the candidate will integrate and analyze various administrative and survey data (related to local labor market contexts, SU/SUD/OD, and other environmental characteristics); test the effects of industry-specific job availability (and its changes) and socioeconomic/physical/behavioral health mediators on SU/SUD/OD; develop agent-based modeling to make robust projections in Ohio based on local labor market outlook; and conduct simulated experiments to assess the preventive impacts of employment- and substance supply-related policies using agent-based models. By the end of the award period, the candidate will be positioned as one of the few investigators in the United States with the requisite knowledge and skills to use systems science and simulation modeling to inform substance use prevention policies, especially for communities experiencing economic restructuring and/or contractions.