针对大量非对照数据的综合分析缺乏有效分析方法，为了挖掘已有大量数据再组合利用价值，确立数据转换思路，使原本仅用于有对照数据分析的Meta-analysis拓展到非对照大数据应用，以定量揭示宏观规律。拟选择新疆棉花灌水生产为案例，搜集1991-2016年新疆棉花灌水产量的田间、遥感及调研数据，对无对照数据整理转换，应用Meta-analysis方法定量优化灌水增产率并构建自治区域大尺度增产模型，并对模型进行科学评估、验证，拟首次定量分析棉花增产主要影响因素，发现单个田间试验无法发现的大尺度区域生产规律。可用于建立棉花产量潜力估算模型，优化水资源配置，分析棉花产量潜力，提供生产预测、管理及区划参考，对科学决策具有重要意义。也可为其他无对照数据的大尺度Meta-analysis全定量分析提供有效方法。提出研究实施方案并对主持人研究基础、方案可行性进行了分析。

Extended application of Meta-analysis for data without control and model of cotton yield-increasing under irrigation in Xinjiang.There is a lack of effective methods for comprehensive analysis of the large amounts of data without control. In order to explore the reuse values of the large amounts of data, this study was to develop data transformation ideas that could extend application of Meta-analysis originally only used for pairs of data to big data without control so as to reveal the rules behind the data. A case study on cotton production under irrigation conditions in Xinjiang in 1991-2016 was followed. Data of field-experiment, remote sensing, and investigation were collected for data transformation using the developed idea and then for quantitative analysis of yield-increasing rate by irrigation and establishment of yield-increasing model on a large scale by using Meta-analysis method. The model was evaluated and validated to quantitatively determine main factors influencing cotton yield. Rules that could not be found in field experiments were concluded from a large scale. The results can be used for building cotton yield potential models, optimizing water resource relocation, analyzing cotton yield potential, providing valuable information for yield predication, management, and regional regionalization. It is meaningful for making scientific plans. In addition, it will provide an effective method for totally quantitative analysis of the other datasets without control using Meta-analysis on a large scale. Finally, the detailed implementation plans were proposed, and research background of the applicant was described, and the feasibility of the program was discussed.