CAREER: Bringing a dynamic, stochastic, and computational, understanding to subjective probabilities

我们每天都依赖专家和外行人的概率判断。航天飞机不仅是根据天气预报发射的，而且还取决于工程师对某个部件是否会故障的主观判断。军事任务和政治政策是根据情报分析人员对某一事件将要发生或已经发生的信念而制定的。毫无疑问，使用概率判断来做决定使得主观概率的准确性至关重要。事实上，主观概率的准确性在认知科学和决策科学中已经得到了很好的研究。然而，主观概率的一个同样有价值的方面是，它所花费的时间，法官制定他们的估计。显然，法官做出概率判断所花费的时间对法官和决策者都有外部成本。然而，人们对主观概率判断的内在时间过程知之甚少。因此，这些外部成本对主观概率及其准确性的影响是未知的。在这个项目中，首席研究员进行研究，检查法官外部的变量（例如，时间压力；奖励和惩罚）和法官内部的变量（例如，注意力和顺序效应）如何影响时间进程和主观概率的准确性。一个称为判断场理论的一般框架将整合这些内部和外部变量如何影响概率判断。此外，该框架还提供了对同一事件的不同描述的认知解释(例如，兰斯·阿姆斯特朗将赢得比赛vs兰斯·阿姆斯特朗赢得了比赛？（如输掉比赛）会改变裁判评估事件发生可能性的方式，以及这种评估如何随着时间的推移而变化。这项研究的广泛影响有三个方面。首先，该研究将有助于开发评估主观概率准确性的方法。这些方法最终可以用来提高法官的准确性。其次，理论框架将用于开发本科心理学方法课程课程，将传统的方法课程与认知建模技术相结合。最后，一个更广泛的影响是拓展和整合多元化的本科生和研究生群体在密歇根州立大学认知科学。

We rely on the probability judgments of experts and laypeople every day. Space shuttles are launched not only on the basis of weather forecasts, but also on an engineer's subjective opinion that a part will or will not fail. Military missions and political policies are put in place using intelligence analysts' beliefs that an event will occur or has occurred. Without doubt the use of probability judgments to make decisions makes the accuracy of subjective probabilities of utmost importance. Indeed the accuracy of subjective probabilities has been well studied in the cognitive and decision sciences. Yet, an equally valuable aspect of subjective probabilities is the amount of time it takes judges to formulate their estimates. Clearly, the time a judge takes to make a probability judgment has external costs to both the judge and the decision maker. Yet, little is known about the internal time course of subjective probability judgments. Consequently, the impact these external costs have on subjective probabilities and their accuracy is not known. In this project the Principal Investigator pursues research examining how variables external to the judge (e.g., time pressure; rewards and penalties) and internal to the judge (e.g., attention and sequential effects) impact the time course and accuracy of subjective probabilities. A general framework called Judgment Field Theory will integrate how these internal and external variables impact probability judgments. Moreover, the framework offers a cognitive account of how different descriptions of the same event (e.g., Lance Armstrong will win the race vs. Lance Armstrong won?t lose the race) change how judges evaluate the likelihood of an event occurring and how this evaluation changes as a function of time. The broader impacts of the research are three-fold. First, the research will help in the development of methods to evaluate the accuracy of subjective probabilities. These methods can ultimately be used to improve the accuracy of judges. Second, the theoretical framework will be used in the development of an undergraduate psychological methods course curriculum that infuses a traditional methods course with techniques of cognitive modeling. Finally, a broader impact is the outreach to and integration of a diverse group of undergraduate and graduate students into cognitive science at MSU.