CAREER: Bringing a dynamic, stochastic, and computational, understanding to subjective probabilities

我们每天都依赖专家和外行的概率判断。航天飞机的发射不仅基于天气预报，而且还基于工程师的主观意见，即某个部件会或不会发生故障。军事任务和政治政策是根据情报分析人员对某个事件将要发生或已经发生的看法而制定的。毫无疑问，使用概率判断来做出决策，使得主观概率的准确性至关重要。事实上，主观概率的准确性已经在认知科学和决策科学中得到了很好的研究。然而，主观概率的一个同样有价值的方面是法官制定估计所需的时间。显然，法官做出概率判断所花费的时间对法官和决策者都有外部成本。然而，很少有人知道主观概率判断的内部时间过程。因此，这些外部成本对主观概率的影响及其准确性尚不清楚。在这个项目中，主要研究者进行研究，研究法官外部的变量（例如，时间压力;奖励和惩罚）和法官内部（例如，注意力和顺序效应）影响主观概率的时间过程和准确性。一个被称为判断场理论的一般框架将整合这些内部和外部变量如何影响概率判断。此外，该框架还提供了一个认知解释，说明对同一事件的不同描述（例如，兰斯·阿姆斯特朗会赢得比赛吗？Don’t lose the race）改变裁判如何评估事件发生的可能性以及这种评估如何作为时间的函数而变化。这项研究的广泛影响有三个方面。首先，这项研究将有助于开发评估主观概率准确性的方法。这些方法最终可以用来提高裁判的准确性。第二，理论框架将被用于开发一个本科心理学方法课程，注入了传统的方法课程与认知建模技术。最后，一个更广泛的影响是在密歇根州立大学的认知科学的本科生和研究生的多元化群体的推广和整合。

We rely on the probability judgments of experts and laypeople every day. Space shuttles are launched not only on the basis of weather forecasts, but also on an engineer's subjective opinion that a part will or will not fail. Military missions and political policies are put in place using intelligence analysts' beliefs that an event will occur or has occurred. Without doubt the use of probability judgments to make decisions makes the accuracy of subjective probabilities of utmost importance. Indeed the accuracy of subjective probabilities has been well studied in the cognitive and decision sciences. Yet, an equally valuable aspect of subjective probabilities is the amount of time it takes judges to formulate their estimates. Clearly, the time a judge takes to make a probability judgment has external costs to both the judge and the decision maker. Yet, little is known about the internal time course of subjective probability judgments. Consequently, the impact these external costs have on subjective probabilities and their accuracy is not known. In this project the Principal Investigator pursues research examining how variables external to the judge (e.g., time pressure; rewards and penalties) and internal to the judge (e.g., attention and sequential effects) impact the time course and accuracy of subjective probabilities. A general framework called Judgment Field Theory will integrate how these internal and external variables impact probability judgments. Moreover, the framework offers a cognitive account of how different descriptions of the same event (e.g., Lance Armstrong will win the race vs. Lance Armstrong won?t lose the race) change how judges evaluate the likelihood of an event occurring and how this evaluation changes as a function of time. The broader impacts of the research are three-fold. First, the research will help in the development of methods to evaluate the accuracy of subjective probabilities. These methods can ultimately be used to improve the accuracy of judges. Second, the theoretical framework will be used in the development of an undergraduate psychological methods course curriculum that infuses a traditional methods course with techniques of cognitive modeling. Finally, a broader impact is the outreach to and integration of a diverse group of undergraduate and graduate students into cognitive science at MSU.