ESE: Collaborative Research: Climate Change and Variability and Armed Conflicts in Africa South of the Sahara

ESE：合作研究：撒哈拉以南非洲的气候变化和变异性以及武装冲突

• 批准号: 0964515
• 负责人: Arlene Laing
• 金额: $ 6.38万
• 依托单位: University Corporation For Atmospheric Res
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-06-15 至 2013-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0964515&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: ESE; Collaborative; Research; Climate; Change

The number of armed conflicts has declined after the end of the Cold War. There is also a long-term trend towards less severe armed conflicts, though climate change threatens to reverse this favorable trend. Rising in temperatures are likely to cause drought and increase natural hazards (including floods and hurricanes). Resulting migration and in turn, conflict with host communities can lead to local scarcities, increasing the risk of conflict. Climate change will possibly weaken politically-unstable regimes in low-development countries, in turn strengthening the hand of insurgent movements challenging governments and adding to communal conflict. The PIs will look at specific physical phenomena (droughts and natural hazards) whose social and economic effects will then be traced to estimate the probable implications for conflict. The projected impacts of climate change will not result in elevated conflict risk in all societies but depends on country-specific and contextual factors. The investigation will take place at two scales, the regional and the local, for the countries of sub-Saharan Africa. Using a predictive model of the coupled natural (climate) and social (violence) systems, with feedback loops and mediating socio-political-economic variables, the PIs will measure the impact of adverse climate change and/or changes in climate variability on the rate of armed conflict, determine which mediating factors influence the rate of this impact, and project the violence outcomes on the basis of different climate change/variability scenarios. The data from the substantial climate, satellite imaged environmental (land-use), socio-economic and violence sources will be integrated in a geographic information system, with 100 kilometers grids being the primary scale of analysis. Local studies in selected contexts in East Africa (with the support of local research networks) will complement the statistical study by exploring the locally-varying processes linking climate/environmental change to violent events.Efforts to assess the security implications of climate change have foundered on the paucity of empirical evidence and the lack of consensus in the scientific literature of the extent of the possible relationship. Recent statements by U.S. and international agencies propose climate change/variability as a threat multiplier to existing problems (poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions) that might threaten domestic stability in weak states. Possible impacts of climate change/variability are mediated by contextual conditions, especially governmental policies, socio-economic resources, and existing fractures along regional and ethnic lines. Sub-Saharan Africa has been identified as the most vulnerable region, with the possibility of significant intra-regional migration/emigration to escape a worsening quality of life leading to communal conflict over declining resources. The research will contribute to policy debates within the US and internationally which, to date, have skirted the issue due to unreliable conflict measures, debatable climate change indicators, information on local differences, and the lack of contact between the natural/climate science and conflict studies communities.

冷战结束后，武装冲突的数量有所减少。还有一个长期趋势是武装冲突不那么严重，尽管气候变化有可能扭转这一有利趋势。气温上升可能造成干旱，增加自然灾害（包括洪水和飓风）。 由此产生的移徙以及与东道社区的冲突可能导致当地资源匮乏，增加冲突的风险。气候变化可能会削弱低发展国家政治不稳定的政权，反过来加强叛乱运动的力量，挑战政府，加剧社区冲突。项目执行人将研究具体的物理现象（干旱和自然灾害），然后追踪其社会和经济影响，以估计可能对冲突产生的影响。气候变化的预计影响不会导致所有社会的冲突风险增加，但取决于具体国家和背景因素。 调查将在区域和地方两个层面上对撒哈拉以南非洲国家进行。 使用自然（气候）和社会在具有反馈回路和社会-政治-经济中介变量的暴力（暴力）系统中，PI将衡量不利的气候变化和/或气候变异性变化对武装冲突发生率的影响，确定哪些中介因素影响这种影响的发生率，并根据不同的气候变化/变异性情景预测暴力后果。来自大量气候、卫星图像环境（土地使用）、社会经济和暴力来源的数据将被纳入地理信息系统，100公里网格是主要的分析尺度。在东非选定的情况下进行的当地研究（在当地研究网络的支持下）将通过探讨气候/环境变化与暴力事件之间的当地不同过程来补充统计研究，评估气候变化对安全的影响的努力因缺乏经验证据和科学文献中对可能的关系的程度缺乏共识而失败。美国和国际机构最近的声明提出，气候变化/可变性是现有问题（贫困，社会紧张局势，环境恶化，领导不力和政治机构薄弱）的威胁倍增器，这些问题可能威胁弱国的国内稳定。 气候变化/变异性的可能影响受到环境条件的影响，特别是政府政策、社会经济资源以及沿着区域和种族界线的现有断裂。 撒哈拉以南非洲已被确定为最脆弱的区域，可能出现大量区域内移徙/外移，以逃避日益恶化的生活质量，导致资源减少引发社区冲突。这项研究将有助于美国和国际上的政策辩论，到目前为止，由于不可靠的冲突措施，有争议的气候变化指标，地方差异的信息，以及自然/气候科学和冲突研究社区之间缺乏联系，这些问题一直在回避。