DISSERTATION RESEARCH: Testing the limits: effects of climate and competition on conifer distributions at Mount Rainier

论文研究：测试极限：气候和竞争对雷尼尔山针叶树分布的影响

• 批准号: 1010787
• 负责人: Janneke Hille Ris Lambers
• 金额: $ 1.42万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-06-01 至 2013-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1010787&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: DISSERTATION; RESEARCH; Testing; limits; effects

How will climate change affect our forests? Rising temperatures could result in changes in the distribution of species. Indeed, scientists have already observed that many species ranges have moved upward in latitude and altitude as global temperatures have increased during the past century. However, competition with neighboring trees can also affect the distribution of species, with the result that range changes may be more difficult to predict than would be expected based only on the direct effects of temperature. This project will address these issues by examining how climate (including temperature, rain, and snow) interacts with competition to determine the performance of three common tree species at Mount Rainier National Park. Examination of yearly tree growth and climate data that span the last 100 years indicates that climate determines upper range limits for many tree species, but that other factors are important at lower range limits. These patterns will be tested by transplanting seeds and seedlings of species beyond their current range limits and by removing competitors from some areas. In combination with observational data, these experiments will be used to test the hypothesis that biotic factors, such as competition, are more important at the lower range limit, while abiotic factors, such as temperature, control the upper range limit.Predicting the impacts of climate change on trees is a great challenge for natural resource planners and land managers, whose management plans rely on knowing where species occur now and where they will occur in future decades. This research is directly applicable to the National Park Service, especially at Mount Rainier National Park. Old growth forests in the Park currently offer significant ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration and habitat for rare species, and these studies will provide information about how these important ecosystems may change in the future.

气候变化将如何影响我们的森林？气温上升可能导致物种分布的变化。事实上，科学家们已经观察到，在过去的一个世纪里，随着全球气温的升高，许多物种的分布范围在纬度和海拔上都有所上升。然而，与邻近树木的竞争也会影响物种的分布，其结果是，范围的变化可能比仅基于温度的直接影响更难预测。该项目将通过研究气候（包括温度、雨和雪）如何与竞争相互作用来解决这些问题，以确定雷尼尔山国家公园三种常见树种的表现。对过去100年树木生长和气候数据的研究表明，气候决定了许多树种的上限，但其他因素在下限也很重要。这些模式将通过移植超出其目前生存范围的物种的种子和幼苗以及从某些地区移除竞争对手来检验。结合观测数据，这些实验将用于验证生物因素（如竞争）在下限更重要，而非生物因素（如温度）控制上限的假设。预测气候变化对树木的影响对自然资源规划者和土地管理者来说是一个巨大的挑战，他们的管理计划依赖于了解物种现在在哪里出现以及未来几十年将在哪里出现。本研究直接适用于国家公园管理局，特别是雷尼尔山国家公园。公园内的原始森林目前提供了重要的生态系统服务，包括碳封存和稀有物种的栖息地，这些研究将提供有关这些重要生态系统未来如何变化的信息。