Collaborative Research: Using Controlled Aerosol Perturbations to Improve Understanding of Cloud Responses for Climate

大气中的粒子在云的形成中起着关键作用，它们是水滴的核心。云层在吸收和反射热量方面发挥着重要作用，因此它们可能会减缓或加剧全球变暖。由于人为排放的增加，气溶胶-云辐射相互作用被广泛认为是未来气候变化气候模型预测中最大的不确定性来源(气专委，2007年)。气候模型预测中这种不确定性的根本原因是我们对云过程的基本理解存在差距。在这些重要问题上，无论是观察结果还是模型都取得了重大进展。然而，这些过程的定量表示是不平凡的，限制了我们在全球气候模型(GCM)中表示它们的能力，导致了对未来气候预测的最大不确定性。考虑到这些问题对于推进GCM的及时性，有必要解决云对气溶胶扰动的动力学响应中尚未回答的问题。这项研究是一项有针对性的飞机战役，嵌入建模研究，为实验计划提供信息，并便于解释结果。这项研究将于2011年7月在加利福尼亚州蒙特利海岸附近使用跨学科遥控飞机研究中心(CIRPAS)的双水獭飞机，并配备完整的仪器来测量粒子和云的数量、质量和成分分布。这项研究由三项新的和重要的、以气候为重点的研究组成：1.在飞行中和专用船只上或由专用船只对三种不同尺寸范围的粒子进行控制释放和大气分布；2.受观测约束的大涡模拟和气溶胶-云团模拟研究，以测试我们定量预测对自然大气中粒子浓度增加的动力学响应的能力；3.卫星对海洋平流层积云的分析，以限制自然、扰动和区域云系的辐射特性。更广泛的影响。这项研究的更广泛的科学影响将是改善对基本气溶胶-云过程的理解，这些过程可以被纳入全球气候模型，以更好地为决策者提供信息。这项研究的更广泛的教育影响将通过以下方式实现：(1)通过制定和试行针对服务不足受众的非正式科学教育计划，促进教学、培训和学习；(2)扩大代表不足的群体--这种情况下是退休人员和老年人--在研究和外联方面的参与；(3)通过与已有的教育组织(Osher终身学习研究所)建立伙伴关系，加强教学基础设施；(4)通过演讲、同行评议出版物和通过网络广泛传播成果；以及(5)在提高对气候科学和相关伦理问题的理解方面的社会益处。

Particles in the atmosphere play a key role in cloud formation, acting as nuclei for water droplets. Clouds play an important role in absorbing and reflecting heat, hence they can potentially mitigate or exacerbate global warming. Aerosol-cloud radiative interactions are widely held to be the largest single source of uncertainty in climate model projections of future climate change due to increasing anthropogenic emissions (IPCC, 2007). The underlying causes of this uncertainty among modeled predictions of climate are the gaps in our fundamental understanding of cloud processes. There has been significant progress with both observations and models on these important questions. However, the quantitative representation of these processes is nontrivial and limits our ability to represent them in global climate models (GCMs), resulting in the largest uncertainties in predictions of future climate. Given the timeliness of these questions for advancing GCMs, it is essential to address the unanswered questions in cloud dynamical response to aerosol perturbations.Intellectual merit. This research is a targeted aircraft campaign with embedded modeling studies to inform the experiment planning and to facilitate the interpretation of the results. The study will use the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS) Twin Otter aircraft in July 2011 off the coast of Monterey, California, with a full payload of instruments to measure particle and cloud number, mass and composition distributions. The research is composed of three novel and important additional, climate-focused studies:1. Controlled release and atmospheric distribution of three different size ranges of particles in flight and on or by a dedicated ship;2. Large Eddy Simulations and Aerosol-Cloud Parcel modeling studies constrained by the observations to test our ability to quantitatively predict the dynamical response to increases in particle concentrations in the natural atmosphere;3. Satellite analyses of marine stratocumulus to constrain the radiative properties of the natural, perturbed, and regional cloud systems. Broader impacts. The broader scientific impacts of the research will be the improved understanding of fundamental aerosol-cloud processes that can be incorporated in global climate models to better inform decision makers. The broader educational impacts of the research will be realized through: (1) Promotion of teaching, training and learning through development and piloting of an informal science education program targeting an underserved audience; (2) Broadened participation of underrepresented groups - in this case, retired and elderly people - in research as well as in outreach; (3) Enhancement of infrastructure for teaching through partnerships with an established educational organization (Osher Lifelong Learning Institute); (4) Broad dissemination of results through presentations, peer-reviewed publications and via the web; and (5) Societal benefits in terms of improved understanding of climate science and the related ethical issues.