Assessing Uncertainties in Balanced Cross Sections

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Balanced cross sections were first developed and widely deployed by the oil and gas industry to improve the success of exploration efforts in mountain belts such as the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Despite five decades of widespread use in both academia and industry, no formal method for assessing the uncertainty in these sections has ever been proposed. In this project, the investigators will remedy this shortcoming by developing the first generally applicable method to propagate errors through the calculation that leads to horizontal shortening estimates from balanced sections. Without these uncertainty estimates, it is impossible to predict the reliability, as suggested by either academic or industry practitioners, of balanced section models.The investigators will develop formal error propagation using an area balance approach, which has the advantages that it encompasses all possible structural models, includes seldom incorporated factors such as stratigraphic thickness variation and shortening mechanisms below the resolution of the section, and can be achieved analytically, obviating the need to draw a large number of sections in the same region. Testing of the method on thrust belts in the Canadian Rockies and Taiwan will allow this research group to explore the effect of stratigraphic variations as well as kinematic styles on the degree of uncertainty in these iconic balanced cross sections.