Global climate change effects on forest insect outbreak dynamics

气候变化可能会改变森林落叶昆虫的爆发动态，对经济和环境都有潜在影响。尽管许多研究预测气候变化将增加疫情的频率和严重程度，但很少有研究探讨最近的气候趋势是否影响了疫情动态。此外，这几项研究的结果并不一致。将检查10种森林落叶昆虫物种和长期气候数据集的爆发历史，以确定相对于长期规范，爆发的规律性，频率和规模是否随着时间的推移发生了变化，并评估动态变化是否可能受到气候变化的影响。将通过将数量种群增长模型与历史疫情数据拟合，然后将模型结果与现有的生物相互作用知识（例如，疾病，寄生），影响人口规模的每一个落叶物种。最后，通过综合各个物种的研究结果，评估气候变化对森林落叶昆虫爆发动态的整体影响。该项目将有助于更好地了解气候变化是否导致森林落叶昆虫物种种群行为的变化。该项目还将阐明气候变化对最终导致人口周期的生物相互作用的影响。该项目的更广泛影响包括对害虫控制计划的潜在建议。例如，可以通过选择生物防治剂（例如，疾病），由于气候趋势，这些疾病在未来可能会变得更加有效。此外，研究技术和研究结果将传播给学前教育学校的科学课程主管。

Climate change may alter the outbreak dynamics of forest-defoliating insects, with potential consequences for both the economy and the environment. Although numerous studies predict that climate change will increase the frequency and severity of outbreaks, few studies have examined whether recent climate trends have impacted outbreak dynamics. Furthermore, the results of those few studies have not been consistent. Outbreak histories of 10 forest-defoliating insect species and long-term climate datasets will be examined to determine whether the regularity, frequency, and magnitude of outbreaks have shifted over time relative to long-term norms, and to evaluate whether shifts in dynamics may be influenced by climate changes. Potential causes of shifts in outbreak dynamics will be investigated by fitting quantitative population growth models to historical outbreak data, and then integrating the results from the models with existing knowledge of biological interactions (e.g., disease, parasitism) that influence the population sizes of each defoliator species. Finally, the impacts of climate change on the outbreak dynamics of forest-defoliating insects as a whole will be assessed by synthesizing the findings for individual species.This project will contribute to a better understanding of whether changes in climate have led to shifts in the population behavior of forest-defoliating insect species. The project will also shed light on the effects of changes in climate on the biological interactions ultimately responsible for population cycles. Broader impacts of this project include potential recommendations for pest control programs. For example, control plans could be modified by selecting biological control agents (e.g., diseases) that are likely to become more effective in the future due to climatic trends. In addition, research techniques and findings will be disseminated to science-curriculum supervisors for preK-12 schools.