Doctoral Dissertation Research: Subjective estimations, probabilities, and subsistence decision-making in Endeh, Flores Island, Indonesia. Is more information better?

格鲁吉亚大学博士生，维多利亚C。Ramenzoni在Bram Tucker博士的指导下，将研究增加获取信息对与生存有关的决策的影响。她的研究将解决如何预测和估计的不确定性方面的概率和协变规则解释经济行为，包括生产活动和资源使用在手工捕鱼社区的问题。Ramenzoni的研究将在印度尼西亚弗洛雷斯岛的Endeh进行，她将在那里收集数据，以确定关于不确定性的主观估计（协变推断和概率表示）在多大程度上解释了包括生产活动和资源使用在内的经济行为。具体的研究问题包括：1）恩德恩渔民如何设想影响渔业资源和渔获量的生态过程（物理，大气和气象）？2)渔民对天气、气候事件和生态过程的预测采取什么形式？3)渔民对天气、气候事件、生态过程和自身生产效率的估计如何影响他们捕鱼的时间？数据收集方法将包括人种学、观察和实验工具的结合。将通过多元和二元统计以及内容分析技术对结果进行分析。这项研究很重要，因为它将增加模型的可预测性和理解生存行为的理论力量。研究结果将阐明日常生存决策对经济转型和保护举措的影响。这项研究还将通过对文化敏感的透镜概念化人们的需求和现实，为保护和政府有关管理濒危渔业和防止过度捕捞的计划提供人类行为证据。资助这项研究支持一名研究生的教育和两名本科生的培训，从加贾玛达，日惹，印度尼西亚大学，促进国际研究交流和合作。

University of Georgia doctoral candidate, Victoria C. Ramenzoni, with the guidance of Dr. Bram Tucker, will undertake research on the effects of increased access to information on subsistence-related decision making. Her research will address the question of how forecasts and estimations of uncertainty in terms of probabilities and covariation rules explain economic behavior including production activities and resource use in artisinal fishing communities. Ramenzoni's research will be carried out in Endeh, Flores Island, Indonesia, where she will collect data to determine the extent to which subjective estimations about uncertainty (covariation inferences and probabilistic representations) explain economic behavior including production activities and resource use. Specific research questions include: 1) How do Endehnese fishermen conceive of ecological processes (physical, atmospheric, and meteorological) affecting fishing stocks and catches? 2) What forms do fishermen's predictions of weather, climatic events, and ecological processes take? 3) How do fishermen's estimations of weather, climate events, ecological processes, and their own productive efficiency influence the time they spend fishing? Data collection methods will include a combination of ethnographic, observational, and experimental tools. Results will be analyzed through multivariate and bivariate statistics, and content analysis techniques. The research is important because it will increase modeling predictability and theoretical power for understanding subsistence behavior. Study findings will illuminate the effects that everyday subsistence decision-making has on economic transitions and conservation initiatives. The research also will provide human behavioral evidence for conservation and governmental programs concerned with managing endangered fisheries and preventing overfishing by conceptualizing people's needs and realities through a culturally sensitive lens. Funding this research supports the education of a graduate student and the training of two undergraduate students from the University of Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia, fostering international research communication and collaboration.