NSWP: Photospheric Magnetic Evolution and Impulsive Solar Activity

调查小组最近利用对几十个太阳活动区(ARs)的视线(LOS)太阳磁图观测，开发了一个他们已经证明与耀斑和日冕物质抛射(CME)在统计上相关的“Poynting通量”参数。在这个项目中，研究人员将在他们先前工作的基础上再接再厉，以便定量描述光球层的磁演化，并从统计上确定哪些磁演化测量与太阳耀斑活动有关。对AR磁场演化的定量研究可以约束导致太阳耀斑的物理过程，这是太阳物理学中的一个基本问题。该研究小组将具体利用航天器仪器产生的全盘LOS磁图档案，以及作为社区耀斑预报讲习班一部分的共同磁图数据集，分析前一个太阳周期的大量AR样本。除了他们现有的量化磁场演化的方法外，该团队还将在这个项目中应用更多创新技术，包括感应流量估计、自相关和磁多极矩的演化。计划中的团队将调查磁场演化和耀斑活动的这些新测量之间的联系，并分析LOS和矢量磁图序列中的光球层等离子体流动，以及从MHD模拟得出的合成磁图所显示的流动。这项分析将集中在耀斑相关的磁结构测量背后的物理过程，如强场极性反转线、磁切变和垂直电流。提议团队将与其他研究人员合作，协调正在进行的社区数据分析，作为耀斑预测研讨会的一部分。他们还将协助空军研究实验室(AFRL)的研究人员使用代理Poynting通量参数实施试验空间天气预报技术。将制作整个计量吸入器档案的流程图和大样本AR的参数数据库，并将其放在网上，以供其他研究人员广泛使用。本科生将在这项工作中帮助分析数据，并将在科学会议上展示他们的结果。该项目将提高太阳耀斑预报的准确性，从而增强业务空间天气预报，造福更广泛的社会。

The investigating team has recently used line-of-sight (LOS) solar magnetogram observations of a few dozen solar active regions (ARs) to develop a "proxy Poynting flux" parameter that they have demonstrated is statistically associated with flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In this project, the investigators will build upon and extend their previous work, in order to quantitatively characterize photospheric magnetic evolution and to statistically identify which measures of magnetic evolution are associated with solar flare activity. The quantitative study of AR magnetic evolution can constrain the physical processes leading to solar flares, which is a fundamental problem in solar physics. This research team will analyze a large sample of ARs from the previous solar cycle, specifically using the full-disk, LOS magnetogram archives generated by spacecraft instruments, as well as a common magnetogram dataset that is part of a community Flare Forecast Workshop. In addition to their existing methods of quantifying magnetic evolution, the team will apply more innovative techniques in this project, including inductive flow estimation, autocorrelation, and evolution in magnetic multipole moments. The proposing team will investigate associations between these new measures of magnetic evolution and flare activity, and analyze photospheric plasma flows in LOS and vector magnetogram sequences, as well as flows indicated by synthetic magnetograms developed from MHD simulations. This analysis will focus on the physical processes behind flare-associated measures of magnetic structure, such as strong-field polarity inversion lines, magnetic shear, and vertical electric currents. The proposing team will partner with other researchers to coordinate ongoing community data analysis as part of the Flare Forecast Workshop. They also will assist researchers at the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) in implementing trial space weather forecasting techniques using the proxy Poynting flux parameter. Flow maps for the entire MDI archive and a database of parameters for a large sample of ARs will be produced and placed online, to allow wide use by other researchers. Undergraduate students will assist in analyzing data in this effort and will present their results at scientific meetings. This project will improve solar flare forecast accuracy, and thereby enhance operational space weather predictions and benefit wider society.