GOALI/Collaborative Research: A Methodology for Utility-Based Decision Making in Large Design Organizations Using Empirically-Derived Risk Indicators

GOALI学术联络机会(GOALI)合作研究项目的目标是为大型设计组织创建和验证一种基于效用的决策方法，使用基于先前设计项目数据的风险指标的定量模型。风险指示器是对设计项目中的风险具有预测能力的事件状态。新的方法将为设计者提供一种形式化的手段，从定性地理解什么是风险，到量化模型来描述风险缓解行动的可能结果。该方法将包括风险指标引出、模型量化和决策问题制定的新方法。这些结论将通过数学分析和实证研究加以验证。初步经验评估将使用课堂设计项目进行。将使用工程项目数据与波音公司的工程师进行详细研究。他们的参与是关键，因为这使得能够对该方法进行工业规模的评估。如果成功，这项研究将对在风险下设计复杂系统的大型工业和政府组织产生重大影响。这项研究的主要结果将是一种经过验证的、具有凝聚力的方法，为这些组织提供新的业务能力。执行该方法所需的计算工具的原型将可供使用，并可为开发新的商业工具提供路线图。预计与波音公司合作进行的行业规模评估将导致在其他地方更快、更广泛地采用这一方法。计划举办讲习班，向广大设计从业者传播成果。研究方法和研究结果将纳入系统设计(OSU和TAMU)和工程管理(OSU)课程。来自俄勒冈州中学的代表不足的学生将通过俄亥俄州立大学的一个既定项目参与进来，其中将突出波音公司令人信服的设计范例。

The objective of this Grant Opportunity for Academic Liaison with Industry (GOALI) collaborative research project is to create and validate a utility-based decision methodology for large design organizations using a quantitative model based on risk indicators derived from data about prior design projects. A risk indicator is a state of affairs that has predictive power regarding risk in a design project. The new methodology will provide designers with a formalized means to go from a qualitative understanding of what indicates risk to a quantitative model of the likely outcomes of risk-mitigating actions. The methodology will include novel methods for risk indicator elicitation, model quantification, and decision problem formulation. These will be validated using mathematical analysis and empirical studies. Initial empirical evaluations will be conducted using classroom design projects. Detailed studies will be conducted with engineers from Boeing using engineering project data. Their participation is key because it enables an industrial-scale evaluation of the methodology.If successful, this research will have a significant impact on large industrial and government organizations that design complex systems under risk. The main outcome of this research will be a validated and cohesive methodology that provides such organizations with new operational capabilities. Prototypes of the computational tools needed to execute the methodology will be made available for use and can provide a roadmap to the development of new commercial tools. It is anticipated that the industry-scale evaluation performed in partnership with Boeing will lead to faster and more widespread adoption of the methodology elsewhere. Workshops are planned to disseminate results to a wide community of design practitioners. Research methods and study results will be incorporated into courses in system design (OSU and TAMU) and engineering management (OSU). Underrepresented students from Oregon middle schools will be engaged through an established program at OSU, where compelling examples of design from Boeing will be highlighted.