GOALI/Collaborative Research: A Methodology for Utility-Based Decision Making in Large Design Organizations Using Empirically-Derived Risk Indicators

该学术联络与行业（GOALI）合作研究项目的目标是使用基于先前设计项目数据衍生的风险指标的定量模型，为大型设计组织创建并验证基于效用的决策方法。风险指示器是一种对设计项目中的风险具有预测能力的事件状态。新的方法将为设计人员提供一种形式化的方法，使他们能够从对风险的定性理解转向对风险缓解行动可能结果的定量模型。方法论将包括风险指标引出，模型量化和决策问题制定的新方法。这些将通过数学分析和实证研究进行验证。将使用课堂设计项目进行初步实证评估。波音公司的工程师将利用工程项目数据进行详细的研究。他们的参与是关键，因为它可以对方法进行工业规模的评估。如果成功，这项研究将对设计风险下复杂系统的大型工业和政府组织产生重大影响。这项研究的主要成果将是一个有效的和有凝聚力的方法，为这些组织提供新的业务能力。将提供执行该方法所需的计算工具的原型供使用，并可为开发新的商业工具提供路线图。预计与波音公司合作进行的工业规模评估将导致其他地方更快、更广泛地采用该方法。计划举办讲习班，向广大设计从业人员传播成果。研究方法和研究结果将被纳入系统设计（俄勒冈州立大学和TAMU）和工程管理（俄勒冈州立大学）的课程。来自俄勒冈州中学的代表性不足的学生将通过俄勒冈州立大学的一个既定项目参与其中，波音公司的引人注目的设计案例将被突出。

The objective of this Grant Opportunity for Academic Liaison with Industry (GOALI) collaborative research project is to create and validate a utility-based decision methodology for large design organizations using a quantitative model based on risk indicators derived from data about prior design projects. A risk indicator is a state of affairs that has predictive power regarding risk in a design project. The new methodology will provide designers with a formalized means to go from a qualitative understanding of what indicates risk to a quantitative model of the likely outcomes of risk-mitigating actions. The methodology will include novel methods for risk indicator elicitation, model quantification, and decision problem formulation. These will be validated using mathematical analysis and empirical studies. Initial empirical evaluations will be conducted using classroom design projects. Detailed studies will be conducted with engineers from Boeing using engineering project data. Their participation is key because it enables an industrial-scale evaluation of the methodology.If successful, this research will have a significant impact on large industrial and government organizations that design complex systems under risk. The main outcome of this research will be a validated and cohesive methodology that provides such organizations with new operational capabilities. Prototypes of the computational tools needed to execute the methodology will be made available for use and can provide a roadmap to the development of new commercial tools. It is anticipated that the industry-scale evaluation performed in partnership with Boeing will lead to faster and more widespread adoption of the methodology elsewhere. Workshops are planned to disseminate results to a wide community of design practitioners. Research methods and study results will be incorporated into courses in system design (OSU and TAMU) and engineering management (OSU). Underrepresented students from Oregon middle schools will be engaged through an established program at OSU, where compelling examples of design from Boeing will be highlighted.