GOALI/Collaborative Research: A Methodology for Utility-Based Decision Making in Large Design Organizations Using Empirically-Derived Risk Indicators

这个赠款机会学术联络与工业（GOALI）合作研究项目的目标是创建和验证一个基于实用程序的决策方法，为大型设计组织使用定量模型的基础上，从有关以前的设计项目的数据得出的风险指标。风险指标是一种对设计项目中的风险具有预测能力的事态。新的方法将为设计人员提供一种正式的手段，从定性理解什么是风险的标志，到减少风险行动可能产生的结果的定量模型。该方法将包括风险指标引出、模型量化和决策问题制定的新方法。这些将通过数学分析和实证研究加以验证。初步经验评估将使用教室设计项目进行。波音公司的工程师将利用工程项目数据进行详细研究。他们的参与是关键，因为它使工业规模的方法评估。如果成功，这项研究将有重大影响的大型工业和政府组织，设计复杂的系统风险。这项研究的主要成果将是一个有效的和有凝聚力的方法，为这些组织提供新的业务能力。执行该方法所需的计算工具原型将可供使用，并可为开发新的商业工具提供路线图。预计与波音公司合作进行的行业规模评估将导致其他地方更快和更广泛地采用该方法。计划举办讲习班，向广大设计从业人员传播成果。研究方法和研究成果将纳入系统设计（OSU和TAMU）和工程管理（OSU）课程。来自俄勒冈州中学的代表性不足的学生将通过俄勒冈州立大学的一个既定项目参与，其中将突出波音公司令人信服的设计范例。

The objective of this Grant Opportunity for Academic Liaison with Industry (GOALI) collaborative research project is to create and validate a utility-based decision methodology for large design organizations using a quantitative model based on risk indicators derived from data about prior design projects. A risk indicator is a state of affairs that has predictive power regarding risk in a design project. The new methodology will provide designers with a formalized means to go from a qualitative understanding of what indicates risk to a quantitative model of the likely outcomes of risk-mitigating actions. The methodology will include novel methods for risk indicator elicitation, model quantification, and decision problem formulation. These will be validated using mathematical analysis and empirical studies. Initial empirical evaluations will be conducted using classroom design projects. Detailed studies will be conducted with engineers from Boeing using engineering project data. Their participation is key because it enables an industrial-scale evaluation of the methodology.If successful, this research will have a significant impact on large industrial and government organizations that design complex systems under risk. The main outcome of this research will be a validated and cohesive methodology that provides such organizations with new operational capabilities. Prototypes of the computational tools needed to execute the methodology will be made available for use and can provide a roadmap to the development of new commercial tools. It is anticipated that the industry-scale evaluation performed in partnership with Boeing will lead to faster and more widespread adoption of the methodology elsewhere. Workshops are planned to disseminate results to a wide community of design practitioners. Research methods and study results will be incorporated into courses in system design (OSU and TAMU) and engineering management (OSU). Underrepresented students from Oregon middle schools will be engaged through an established program at OSU, where compelling examples of design from Boeing will be highlighted.