Tractable Approximation of Dynamic Decision Making Models Under Uncertainty

不确定性下动态决策模型的易处理逼近

• 批准号: 1030923
• 负责人: Xin Chen
• 金额: $ 15万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-08-15 至 2014-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1030923&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Tractable; Approximation; Dynamic; Decision; Making

The objective of this award is to propose a practical, efficient, robust and scalable modeling framework to a broad class of dynamic decision making models under uncertainty. Convex approximation approaches will be proposed to solve multi-stage stochastic program problems with limited data distributional information. Mechanisms to measure the quality of the resulting approximations, both theoretically and computationally, will be developed. Their relationship with robust optimization methodology will also be explored. The proposed tractable approximation approach will be applied to model and solve a variety of important large scale practical problems ranging from supply chain management, healthcare, financial engineering and water resource management. If successful, this project would greatly enhance our capabilities to modeling dynamic decision making problems under uncertainty and provide computational tools to solving large scale stochastic programming problems. It would allow the application of stochastic programming to large scale practical dynamic decision making models which were previously out of reach due to their computational complexity. The project would also demonstrate the potential of incorporating uncertainty into practical decision making problems faced by enterprises and facilitate firms with models and computational tools to develop much-needed decision support systems that can handle uncertainty efficiently and effectively.

该奖项的目标是为不确定性下的动态决策模型提出一个实用、高效、鲁棒和可扩展的建模框架。将提出凸逼近方法来解决数据分布信息有限的多阶段随机规划问题。将开发用于测量所得到的近似质量的机制，包括理论和计算。它们与稳健优化方法的关系也将被探讨。所提出的易于处理的近似方法将被应用于建模和解决各种重要的大规模实际问题，包括供应链管理、医疗保健、金融工程和水资源管理。如果该项目成功，将极大地提高我们对不确定条件下动态决策问题建模的能力，并为解决大规模随机规划问题提供计算工具。它将允许将随机规划应用于大规模的实际动态决策模型，这些模型以前由于其计算复杂性而无法实现。该项目还将展示将不确定性纳入企业面临的实际决策问题的潜力，并促进公司利用模型和计算工具开发急需的决策支持系统，以便有效地处理不确定性。