Drinking Water Distribution System Management Incorporating Health and Asset Risk

这个研究项目的目的是为国家做出根本性的贡献。通过概率估计管道破裂造成的健康风险来改善美国的健康状况。美国的饮用水分配系统可能以许多不同的方式受到损害，管道破裂及其相关的维修和更新活动是饮用水分配系统污染的最重要原因之一。尽管易受污染物通过管道破裂侵入的影响，但对饮用水分配系统管道破裂造成的健康风险程度的了解和记录有限。此外，配电系统资产管理并未将与管道破裂相关的健康风险纳入规划过程。对与管道破裂有关的健康风险进行准确的概率估计，将使分配系统能够以一种更能保护公众健康的方式进行维护。这将是美国首次对与管道破裂相关的健康风险进行严格的概率估计。此外，该项目将大大提高管道破裂风险模型的预测准确性。这两项进展——健康风险评估和改进的资产风险评估——将结合起来，形成一个综合的、基于风险的配水系统资产管理框架。目前，运营商和公用事业管理人员将公共健康保护（例如，环境合规性）和资产管理视为两个独立且通常不同的目标。这项研究将使这些潜在的不同目标更全面地整合到一个基于系统的风险和决策模型中。这项研究也将为实时饮用水分配系统管理做出基础性贡献。研究进展将以与一家大型水务公司的密切合作为基础，确保所开发的方法可以在实践中使用。

The objective of this research project is to make a fundamental contribution to the nation?s health by probabilistically estimating health risks due to pipe breaks. U.S. drinking water distribution systems may be compromised in a number of different ways, and pipe breaks and their associated repair and renewal activities are among the most important causes of drinking water distribution system contamination. Despite the vulnerability to contaminant intrusion through pipe breaks, there is limited understanding and documentation of the magnitude of health risks from drinking water distribution system pipe breaks. Furthermore, distribution system asset management does not include the health risks associated with pipe breaks into the planning process. Having accurate, probabilistic estimates of the health risks associated with pipe breaks would allow distribution systems to be maintained in a way more protective of public health. This will be the first rigorous, probabilistic estimate of the health risk associated with pipe breaks in the U.S. In addition, this project will lead to substantial improvements in the predictive accuracy of pipe break risk models. These two advances - health risk assessment and improved asset risk assessment - will be combined to yield an integrated, risk-based water distribution system asset management framework.Currently, operators and utility managers consider public health protection (e.g., environmental compliance) and asset management as two separate and often divergent goals. This research will enable more comprehensive integration of these potentially divergent goals into a systems-based risk and decision model. This research will also make fundamental contributions to real-time drinking water distribution systems management. The research advances will be based on a close working collaboration with a large water utility, ensuring that the methods developed can be used in practice.