Hazards SEES Type 2: Modeling to Promote Regional Resilience to Repeated Heat Waves and Hurricanes

社区对增强抵御极端天气的能力很感兴趣，但往往缺乏充分了解问题并做出正确决策的工具和资源。鉴于极端事件影响的复杂性和相互关联性，这种缺乏认识是可以理解的。社区需要为基础设施管理、土地使用规划、公共卫生和应急管理设计解决方案，了解每个问题之间的关系。在反复发生此类事件的地区，问题会更加严重。在这个项目中，一个跨学科研究小组将开发一个综合模型，即综合危害、影响和恢复力模型，以更好地了解反复出现的飓风和热浪对区域脆弱性和恢复力的影响，并利用该模型制定提高对这些反复出现的危害的恢复力的方法。该团队整合了个人和组织行为、经济建模、气候科学、基础设施工程、危害建模、公共卫生和空间景观分析方面的专业知识。本项目的工作将以系统建模为基础并通过系统建模进行集成。该项目的目标是，随着时间的推移，显著提高对飓风和热浪对各地区脆弱性和复原力的影响的认识，以及帮助各地区更好地防止反复发生的灾害演变为反复发生的灾害的可用工具和资源。大西洋中部地区将成为该项目的研究案例，该项目将在美国的一个关键地区开展工作，该地区人口不断增长，面临极端天气日益严重的威胁。该团队还将拥有强大的国际合作者，帮助确保这项工作在世界其他地区具有广泛的适用性。本项目将培养一批本科生、硕士生、博士生和博士后进行跨学科危害研究和建模。这支由学生和研究人员组成的骨干队伍将成为国家的重要资源，帮助提高该地区对反复出现的飓风和热浪的抵御能力。

Communities are interested in becoming more resilient to weather extremes but often lack the tools and resources to fully understand the problems and make good decisions. This lack of understanding is understandable given the complex and interrelated nature of the impacts from extreme events. Communities need to design solutions for infrastructure management, land use planning, public health, and emergency management, understanding how each is related to the other. In areas that are subject to repeated events, the problem is exacerbated. In this project, an interdisciplinary team of researchers will develop an integrated model, the Integrated Hazard, Impact, and Resilience Model to better understand the impacts of repeated hurricanes and heat waves on regional vulnerability and resilience and use the model to develop approaches for improving resilience to these repeated hazards. The team integrates expertise in individual and organizational behavior, economic modeling, climate science, infrastructure engineering, hazard modeling, public health, and spatial landscape analysis. The work on this project will be grounded in and integrated through systems modeling. The goal of the project is to significantly advance the understanding of the impacts from hurricanes and heat waves on the vulnerability and resilience of regions over time and the tools and resources available to help regions better prevent repeated hazards from becoming repeated disasters.The mid-Atlantic region will be the case study for this project, grounding the work in a critical region of the U.S., one that has a growing population facing increasing threats from weather extremes. The team will also have strong international collaborators, helping to make sure the work has broad applicability to other areas of the world. As part of this project, a set of undergraduates, masters, and doctoral students as well as postdoctoral scholars will be trained in trans-disciplinary hazards research and modeling. This cadre of students and researchers will form a critical resource for the nation, helping to improve regional resilience to repeated hurricanes and heat waves.