Regional Economic Development, Public Expenditures, and Spillover Effects: Guidance for ARRA and Future Regional Policies

尽管美国实施了几十年的反贫困政策，但仍有高达13%的人口生活在贫困线以下，许多地区，如阿巴拉契亚地区和密西西比三角洲地区，贫困人口比例明显更高。2008年至2010年影响美国的经济衰退要求确定对经济产生最积极影响的项目类型，以及最需要公共援助的领域。该研究项目将首次完成对1996年至2007年地方、州和联邦政府支出在美国各县经济发展中的作用的深入分析。研究者将使用一个独特的数据集，捕捉县的经济特征和公共支出，确定哪些类型的投资（如教育、交通、商业支持、人力服务）在促进县之间的增长方面最有效。这种方法的新颖之处在于，它可以评估非为经济发展目的而设计的公共项目是否也会影响一个国家的经济。它还将利用空间统计和空间计量经济学的方法来解释公共支出分配给受援国时所发生的溢出效应。一个例子是建设新的交通基础设施，这将影响接受国及其邻国的经济。以往对公共政策影响的实证估计未能考虑到这种类型的空间依赖。调查人员还将探讨联邦支出“挤出”地方和州支出的可能性。确定联邦开支数额过大的情况有助于改变联邦计划的设计，使各级政府的资金得到最有效的利用。研究者还将测试公共支出的潜在内生性和结果对不同空间尺度的稳健性。该项目将评估公共政策在促进各国经济增长方面的效率。项目结果将表明哪种类型的项目对经济增长的影响最大。将特别注意衡量外溢效应在促进增长方面的作用和程度。因此，该项目提供的信息和见解将使政策制定者更好地了解一个地方的投资如何扩散到邻近地区。该项目将对如何确定分配标准和援助受助地区产生新的见解，从而使《美国复苏与再投资法案》等项目和未来的区域发展政策更加有效。

Despite several decades of U.S. anti-poverty policies, up to 13 percent of the population still lives below the poverty line, and many areas, such as Appalachia and the Mississippi Delta consistently, have significantly larger percentages of residents living in poverty. The economic downturn affecting the U.S. from 2008 through 2010 requires identification of the kinds of projects that have the most positive impact on the economy and on areas that have the greatest need for public assistance. This research project will complete the first in-depth analysis of the role of local, state, and federal government spending on the economic development of U.S. counties from 1996 to 2007. Using a unique dataset that captures the counties' economic characteristics and public spending, the investigator will identify what types of investment (such as education, transportation, business support, human services) are the most effective in promoting growth among counties. The novelty of this approach lies in assessing whether public programs that are not designed for economic development purposes may also affect the economy of a county. It also will account for the presence of spillover effects that take place when public spending is allocated to a recipient county by means of spatial statistics and spatial econometrics. An example would be the construction of new transportation infrastructure that will impact the economy of the recipient county as well as that of its neighbors. Previous empirical estimations of the impact of public policies have failed to account for this type of spatial dependence. The investigator also will explore the potential presence of a "crowding-out" of local and state expenditures by federal spending. Identification of circumstances where the volume of federal expenditures becomes overwhelming could help support changes in the design of federal programs to enable funds from all levels of government to be used most effectively. The investigator also will test for the potential endogeneity of public spending and the robustness of the results to different spatial scales.This project will assess the efficiency of public policies in promoting economic growth across counties. Project results will suggest what types of projects have the greatest impact on economic growth. Particular attention will be devoted to measuring the role and the extent of spillover effects in promoting growth. Information and insights from this project therefore will give policy makers a better understanding of how investments in one place diffuse to neighboring places. This project will lead to new insights regarding the ways allocation criteria should be defined and recipient areas assisted so that programs such as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and future regional development policies can become more efficient.