Projecting the Effects of Environmental Change on the Geographic Ranges of Bird, Mammals, and Amphibians: A First Global Analysis

预测环境变化对鸟类、哺乳动物和两栖动物地理范围的影响:首次全球分析

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    1037902
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 1.14万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    美国
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2010
  • 资助国家:
    美国
  • 起止时间:
    2010-03-01 至 2011-03-31
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

Accelerated climate change and the destruction of natural habitats through human activities are the two greatest threats to terrestrial biodiversity. These forms of environmental change will impact biodiversity at the local scale, but only with a broad-scale (ideally global) perspective can the potential irreversible loss of biodiversity, and the ecosystem services it provides, be fully evaluated. To date, the conceptual understanding of what makes some regions and species particularly vulnerable to these threats is limited. The goal of this project is to perform first steps toward an integrated understanding of the effects of environmental change on terrestrial vertebrates. To this end, the project will produce a taxonomically complete and analytically rigorous database of the geographic ranges of terrestrial vertebrates, core ecological data for species, and global data on present-day and projected future environmental conditions. The accurate capturing of the current distribution of species is crucial for any impact assessments. Therefore, an important first component of this research will be the evaluation, refinement, and validation of species' geographic ranges. These refined ranges will then be used to evaluate the impact of past environmental change on species risk of extinction as baseline for understanding future risk. The project will subsequently assess the exposure of the global protected area network and of single species' geographic ranges to future environmental change under different socioeconomic scenarios using the United Nations Millennium Ecosystem Assessment projections. The project aims to identify the core geographic, taxonomic, and ecological patterns of the impacts of future climate and land-use change on terrestrial vertebrates. The anticipated results will significantly improve our empirical and conceptual understanding of the effects of environmental change on biodiversity. The project will provide a first baseline assessment of future impacts for thousands of vertebrate species. Furthermore, it will quantify the effect of near-future political decisions (under their associated socioeconomic scenarios) on biodiversity and the resulting type, immediacy, taxonomic and geographic prioritization of conservation research and action. This information will help decision-makers to appreciate the impacts of environmental change on biodiversity. Furthermore, the outcomes may facilitate rigorous, science-based prioritization of global conservation efforts. Other scientists will likely benefit from the methods, principles, and data developed from this research.
气候变化的加速和人类活动对自然生境的破坏是对陆地生物多样性的两个最大威胁。这些形式的环境变化将在地方范围内影响生物多样性,但只有从大范围(理想的是全球)的角度,才能充分评估生物多样性及其提供的生态系统服务可能出现的不可逆转的损失。到目前为止,对某些区域和物种特别容易受到这些威胁的原因的概念理解有限。该项目的目标是为全面了解环境变化对陆生脊椎动物的影响迈出第一步。为此,该项目将建立一个分类学上完整、分析上严谨的陆生脊椎动物地理范围数据库、物种核心生态数据以及关于当前和预测未来环境条件的全球数据。准确掌握物种目前的分布情况对于任何影响评估都至关重要。因此,这项研究的第一个重要组成部分将是评估,改进和验证物种的地理范围。这些精确的范围将用于评估过去环境变化对物种灭绝风险的影响,作为了解未来风险的基线。随后,该项目将利用联合国千年生态系统评估的预测,评估全球保护区网络和单一物种的地理分布范围在不同社会经济情景下未来环境变化的影响。该项目旨在确定未来气候和土地利用变化对陆地脊椎动物影响的核心地理、分类和生态模式。预期的结果将大大提高我们对环境变化对生物多样性影响的经验和概念理解。该项目将为数千种脊椎动物物种的未来影响提供第一个基线评估。此外,它还将量化近期政治决策(在其相关的社会经济情景下)对生物多样性的影响,以及由此产生的保护研究和行动的类型,即时性,分类和地理优先级。这些信息将有助于决策者了解环境变化对生物多样性的影响。此外,这些成果可能有助于对全球保护工作进行严格的、以科学为基础的优先排序。其他科学家可能会从这项研究中开发的方法、原理和数据中受益。

项目成果

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Walter Jetz其他文献

Choices to landscapes: Mechanisms of animal movement scale to landscape patterns
景观选择:动物运动规模对景观格局的影响机制
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2024
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Will Rogers;Scott W. Yanco;Walter Jetz
  • 通讯作者:
    Walter Jetz
Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050
1900年至2050年陆地生物多样性和生态系统服务的全球趋势和情景
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2024
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    56.9
  • 作者:
    Henrique M. Pereira;Inês S. Martins;Isabel M. D. Rosa;HyeJin Kim;Paul Leadley;Alexander Popp;D. V. van Vuuren;G. Hurtt;Luise Quoss;A. Arneth;D. Baisero;M. Bakkenes;R. Chaplin‐Kramer;L. Chini;Moreno Di Marco;Simon Ferrier;S. Fujimori;Carlos A. Guerra;M. Harfoot;Thomas D. Harwood;T. Hasegawa;V. Haverd;P. Havlík;Stefanie Hellweg;J. Hilbers;S. Hill;A. Hirata;Andrew J. Hoskins;Florian Humpenöder;J. Janse;Walter Jetz;Justin A Johnson;A. Krause;D. Leclère;Tetsuya Matsui;Johan R. Meijer;C. Merow;M. Obersteiner;Haruka Ohashi;Adriana De Palma;B. Poulter;Andy Purvis;B. Quesada;C. Rondinini;A. Schipper;J. Settele;Richard Sharp;E. Stehfest;B. Strassburg;Kiyoshi Takahashi;Matthew V. Talluto;Wilfried Thuiller;N. Titeux;Piero Visconti;Christopher Ware;Florian Wolf;Rob Alkemade
  • 通讯作者:
    Rob Alkemade
Global daily 1‚Äâkm land surface precipitation based on cloud cover-informed downscaling
基于云量信息降尺度的全球每日 1 平方公里地表降水
  • DOI:
    10.1038/s41597-021-01084-6
  • 发表时间:
    2021-11-26
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    6.900
  • 作者:
    Dirk Nikolaus Karger;Adam M. Wilson;Colin Mahony;Niklaus E. Zimmermann;Walter Jetz
  • 通讯作者:
    Walter Jetz
Integrated species distribution models to account for sampling biases and improve range‐wide occurrence predictions
综合物种分布模型,以解决抽样偏差并改善范围内的发生预测
  • DOI:
    10.1111/geb.13792
  • 发表时间:
    2023
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    6.4
  • 作者:
    J. Mäkinen;C. Merow;Walter Jetz
  • 通讯作者:
    Walter Jetz
Reply to: Causal claims, causal assumptions and protected area impact
回复:因果主张、因果假设与保护区影响
  • DOI:
    10.1038/s41586-024-08513-7
  • 发表时间:
    2025-02-26
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    48.500
  • 作者:
    Jedediah F. Brodie;Jayasilan Mohd-Azlan;Cheng Chen;Oliver R. Wearn;Mairin C. M. Deith;James G. C. Ball;Eleanor M. Slade;David F. R. P. Burslem;Shu Woan Teoh;Peter J. Williams;An Nguyen;Jonathan H. Moore;Scott J. Goetz;Patrick Burns;Patrick Jantz;Christopher R. Hakkenberg;Zaneta Kaszta;Sam Cushman;David Coomes;Olga E. Helmy;Glen Reynolds;Jon Paul Rodríguez;Walter Jetz;Matthew Scott Luskin
  • 通讯作者:
    Matthew Scott Luskin

Walter Jetz的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Walter Jetz', 18)}}的其他基金

Workshop: Activities supporting the international Biodiversity and Ecosystem Service Scenarios Network; March 6-10, 2016, Monte Verita, Ascona, Switzerland
研讨会:支持国际生物多样性和生态系统服务情景网络的活动;
  • 批准号:
    1558568
  • 财政年份:
    2016
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.14万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: ABI Development: Advancing Map of Life's Impact and Capacity for Sharing, Integrating, and Using Global Spatial Biodiversity Knowledge
合作研究:ABI 开发:推进生命影响地图和共享、整合和使用全球空间生物多样性知识的能力
  • 批准号:
    1262600
  • 财政年份:
    2014
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.14万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
Collaborative Research: VertLife Terrestrial: A complete, global assembly of phylogenetic, trait, spatial and environment characteristics for a model clade
合作研究:VertLife Terrescial:模型进化枝的系统发育、性状、空间和环境特征的完整、全局组合
  • 批准号:
    1441737
  • 财政年份:
    2014
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.14万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Doctoral Dissertation Research: Measuring and Predicting Species Distribution Patterns Across Spatial Scales
博士论文研究:测量和预测跨空间尺度的物种分布模式
  • 批准号:
    1333424
  • 财政年份:
    2013
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.14万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Validating and Advancing Continent-Wide Projections of Species' Geographic Distributions in the Face of Global Change
面对全球变化,验证和推进整个大陆物种地理分布的预测
  • 批准号:
    1026764
  • 财政年份:
    2010
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.14万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Map of Life: An infrastructure for integrating global species distribution knowledge
合作研究:生命地图:整合全球物种分布知识的基础设施
  • 批准号:
    0960550
  • 财政年份:
    2010
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.14万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Projecting the Effects of Environmental Change on the Geographic Ranges of Bird, Mammals, and Amphibians: A First Global Analysis
预测环境变化对鸟类、哺乳动物和两栖动物地理范围的影响:首次全球分析
  • 批准号:
    0648733
  • 财政年份:
    2007
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.14万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant

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