Collaborative Research: EAGER - Managing Uncertainty by Integrating Information Economics and Robust Design

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The research objective of this EAGER award is to establish the foundations of a method for managing uncertainty within multilevel design processes. Mitigation of uncertainty in designing complex systems typically results in a significant increase in computational cost; efforts to reduce computational effort necessitate the use of simpler models resulting in increased uncertainty. Hence, there is a need to research and develop methods to find the right balance between uncertainty and computational effort while making good design decisions. The central hypothesis is that the effect of uncertainty and its propagation in multilevel design process networks can be managed by balancing the effort of uncertainty mitigation and the benefit gained in terms of system performance. On successful completion this project will provide the foundational knowledge and approaches to managing uncertainty in the multilevel design of complex systems. If successful, the outcomes of this award will be: a) an approach for quantifying modeling and computational effort; b) an approach for making tradeoff decisions between the effort associated with uncertainty mitigation and design outcomes; c) a framework integrating information economics and robust design; and d) a validated concept that can be used to carry out systematic studies on uncertainty mitigation in simulation-based design of complex engineering systems. The proposed research is transformational because of its focus on uncertainty management through tradeoff between effort and benefit, as opposed to uncertainty mitigation approaches that are characterized solely by the need to increase the accuracy of models in a design process network. Successful demonstration of the proof of concept will result in a foundation upon which more extensive research will be performed and proposed. In addition to publishing in the scholarly literature, the industrially relevant portions of this work will be presented at workshops and trade meetings. The PIs will proactively recruit and mentor underrepresented minorities and women through their activities ASME and SWE student chapters, Pi Tau Sigma, and programs to attract under-represented minorities.