A Modelling and Empirical Study of the Climate of the Lake Victoria Basin of Eastern Africa

东非维多利亚湖盆地气候的模拟与实证研究

• 批准号: 1043125
• 负责人: Fredrick Semazzi
• 金额: $ 52.01万
• 依托单位: North Carolina State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-01-15 至 2014-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1043125&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Modelling; Empirical; Study; Climate; Lake

The project aims to study the dry-wet-dry-wet Lake Victoria Basin Wave Structure (LVB-WS) in the distribution of rainfall across the central region of East Africa. This is the most dominant feature of the climate over Lake Victoria basin (LVB). Very few studies have previously been devoted to investigate the detailed climatology and interannual variability, the response to climate change and the causes of this climatic feature. The investigators will address this knowledge gap to perform the following complementally research activities:(i) LVB-WS Climatology & interannual variability: Produce improved and detailed description of the climatology and interannual variability of the LVB-WS using a combination of analyses based on in-situ and satellite data sets;(ii) Response of the LVB-WS to climate change: Perform and analyse the community Regional Climate Model-version 3 coupled to the Princeton Ocean Model (RegCM3-POM) regional climate model simulations over LVB under present and future climate scenarios to infer climate change projections of the LVB-WS and understand the relative role of the physical processes responsible for the projected changes;(iii) Physical mechanisms responsible for the development & evolution of the LVB-WS: Conduct mechanistic numerical simulations based on the regional RegCM3-POM lake-atmosphere coupled model to determine the causes of the LVB-WS. These mechanisms include the role of regional mountain ridges, the role of the dominant climatic modes of circulation and thermodynamics of Lake Victoria, and climatic effects associated with changes in the large-scale background circulation of the regional climate system.Broader impacts of the proposed research are educational and in the potential to advance our knowledge and understanding of the coupled variability of Lake Victoria hydrodynamics and the basin-wide climate. The project will contribute to several high profile climate programs and activities related to LVB such as the international effort CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) and the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th assessment report (AR5) assessment. Collaboration with African climate centers and other international organizations will promote improvement of climate information products to inform policy decisions in the LVB region.

该项目旨在研究干-湿-干-湿维多利亚湖流域波浪结构（LVB-WS）在东非中部地区的降雨分布。这是维多利亚湖流域（LVB）气候的最主要特征。以前很少有研究致力于研究详细的气候学和年际变率，对气候变化的响应和这种气候特征的原因。研究人员将解决这一知识差距，以开展以下补充性研究活动：（i）LVB-WS气候&年际变化：综合利用基于现场和卫星数据集的分析，对低海拔气象站的气候学和年际变率进行改进和详细的描述;执行和分析社区区域气候模式-第3版与普林斯顿海洋模式相结合（RegCM 3-POM）区域气候模式在当前和未来气候情景下对LVB的模拟，以推断LVB的气候变化预测-WS和理解的物理过程的相对作用，负责预计的变化;（三）物理机制负责发展演变的LVB-WS&：基于区域RegCM 3-POM湖-气耦合模式进行数值模拟，确定LVB的成因，这些机制包括区域山脊的作用，维多利亚湖环流和热力学的主导气候模式的作用，以及与大规模气候变化相关的气候影响-区域气候系统的尺度背景环流。拟议研究的更广泛影响是教育性的，并有可能提高我们的知识和理解维多利亚湖水动力和全流域气候的耦合变化。该项目将为与LVB相关的几个备受瞩目的气候计划和活动做出贡献，例如国际努力CORDEX（协调区域降尺度实验）和下一个政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第五次评估报告（AR 5）评估。与非洲气候中心和其他国际组织的合作将促进改进气候信息产品，为LVB地区的政策决策提供信息。