Collaborative Research: EaSM Type I--Assessing High-Impact Weather Response to Climate Variability and Change Utilizing Extreme Value Theory

随着社会变得更加复杂和相互关联，随着私营、工业和商业发展在高风险地区扩大，财产损失和社会混乱的脆弱性正在增加。因此，了解和预测极端天气的变异和变化是一个重大的社会问题，包括城市、商业和工业规划、流域维护、农业做法以及制定旨在鼓励投资于具有成本效益的适应措施的保险解决方案。目前的气候模型没有能力解决极端天气的强度、损害潜力和其他重要特征，例如长期干旱、热浪、大飓风及其引起的风暴潮、严重的局部风暴和龙卷风、极端的局部降雨和降雪、冰暴和风暴。这个合作项目将汇集一个国际小组的区域气候，社会，统计，风险分析和保险/再保险专家。该小组将通过试点项目和专家讲习班相结合的方式，审查利用高级别极端值统计数据评估极端天气的可能性。该计划的一个特点将是座谈会和资助，使年轻科学家能够在这个跨学科领域发展职业生涯。

Vulnerability to property loss and societal disruption is increasing as society becomes more complex and interconnected, and as private, industrial and commercial development expands in high risk areas. Understanding and predicting variations and changes in weather extremes is thus a major societal issue, encompassing urban, commercial and industrial planning, watershed maintenance, agricultural practices and the development of insurance solutions designed to encourage investment in cost-effective adaptation measures. Current climate models do not have the capacity to resolve the intensity, damage potential, and other important characteristics of extreme weather, e.g. extended droughts, heat waves, major hurricanes and resulting storm surge, severe local storms and tornadoes, extreme local rainfall and snowfall, ice storms, and wind storms.The broader impacts of this activity are high. This collaborative project will bring together an international group of regional climate, societal, statistical, risk analysis, and insurance/reinsurance experts. The group will examine the potential for using high-level extreme value statistics to assess weather extremes through a combination of pilot projects and expert workshops. A feature of the program will be colloquia and funding to enable young scientists to develop careers in this cross-disciplinary area.