Collaborative Research: Improved Regional and Decadal Predictions of the Carbon Cycle

本项目的主要目标是改进社区地球系统模型中碳循环的年代际和区域预测。目前，在所有复杂的气候-碳模型中，对大气碳的预测有很大的差异，即使是在相同的人为强迫下。这种对陆地和海洋碳吸收预测的差异导致了气候强迫和气候影响的巨大差异。下一届政府间气候变化专门委员会是第一个将碳循环纳入所有模型的机构，因此碳循环模型还没有受到物理模型所受到的同样严格的分析。该项目将启动社区地球系统模型中碳循环的理解和改进过程。目标是汇编数据集，准备比较方法，并制定指标，以促进模型的改进，并减少地球系统模型对碳循环的未来气候预测的不确定性。此外，pi将使用这些数据集来回答有关碳循环如何在区域和年代际尺度上响应以及未来如何演变的基本问题。该项目包括陆地、海洋和大气建模和模型/数据比较方面的专家，这是改进区域和年代际尺度碳通量模拟这一跨学科挑战所需要的。更广泛的影响本项目包括编制和发布可用于改进碳通量预测的重要数据集和指标。它将导致对公众可用的社区地球系统模型的改进。本项目包括培养4名研究生和2名本科生进行碳循环跨学科研究。它还包括针对博物馆临时展览的外展项目，以及K-12教师发展项目。

Intellectual meritThe primary goal of this project is to improve the decadal and regional projections of the carbon cycle in the Community Earth System Model. There currently is substantial spread in the predictions of atmospheric carbon among the full complexity climate-carbon models, even with the same anthropogenic forcings. This spread in predictions of the carbon uptake by the land and ocean result in large differences in climate forcing, and thus climate impacts. The next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the first that will include the carbon cycle for all models, and thus the carbon cycle models have not yet been subject to the same rigorous analysis that the physical models have been exposed to. This project will jump-start the process of understanding and improving the carbon cycle in the Community Earth System Model. The goal is to compile datasets, prepare methodologies for comparisons and develop metrics that will facilitate improvements in the models and reduce the uncertainty in future climate projections of the carbon cycle for earth system models. In addition, the PIs will use these datasets to answer fundamental questions about how the carbon cycle responds on regional and decadal scales, and how it will evolve in the future. This project includes experts in modeling and model/data comparisons for the land, ocean and atmosphere, which is required for the cross-disciplinary challenge of improving simulations of regional and decadal scale carbon fluxes. Broader impactsThis project includes the compilation and publishing of important datasets and metrics that can be used to improve carbon flux predictions. It will result in improvements in the publically available Community Earth System Model. The project includes the education of 4 graduate students, and 2 undergraduate students in cross-disciplinary studies of the carbon cycle. It also includes outreach programs targeted at temporary exhibits at museums, and K-12 teacher development programs.