Collaborative Research: A Pilot Project on Interactive Land Use and Climate Predictions

合作研究：交互式土地利用和气候预测试点项目

• 批准号: 1049017
• 负责人: Guiling Wang
• 金额: $ 47.37万
• 依托单位: University of Connecticut
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-05-01 至 2015-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1049017&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Pilot; Project; Interactive

Collaborative Research: A Pilot Project on Interactive Land Use and Climate PredictionsAbstract:In the past land use predictions have been based primarily on population and socioeconomic development scenarios, and have been provided to climate prediction models as an external driver. The role of climate as a major biophysical driver for land use changes has not been adequately considered. Using West Africa as an example, this project will address the overarching question of whether there is a strong need to include land use predictions as an integral component of Earth System Models. The objectives of the project are: (1) to predict future climate and land use considering the interaction between climate and land use; (2) to evaluate the roles of greenhouse gas emissions and land use in driving regional climate changes in West Africa; and (3) to understand the impacts of biophysical and socioeconomic factors on land use changes. Based on a proposed modeling framework that links a cascade of five models, i.e., a regional climate model, a dynamic vegetation model, a crop growth model, an agricultural economics model, and a land use allocation model, the PIs will study the impact of both socio-economic and biophysical factors on human land use. This project will shed insights into whether and to what extent, climate-land use interactions in earth system models influence predictions of future climate and future land use. The broader impacts of this research are high. Climate change and its adverse impact on food security are a major concern for West African countries and international organizations. Results from this project will provide scientific foundations for food policy and targeted investment in climate change adaptation. In addition, this project will promote teaching and learning in a broader context, as well as increase the participation of underrepresented groups, especially women, in geosciences research. This grant supports a collaborative effort among three institutions including the University of Connecticut, Loyola Marymount University, and the International Food Policy Research Institute.

合作研究：交互式土地利用和气候预测试点项目摘要：过去，土地利用预测主要基于人口和社会经济发展情景，并作为外部驱动因素提供给气候预测模型。气候作为土地利用变化的主要生物物理驱动因素的作用尚未得到充分考虑。以西非为例，该项目将解决一个首要问题：是否强烈需要将土地利用预测作为地球系统模型的一个组成部分。该项目的目标是：（1）考虑气候与土地利用之间的相互作用，预测未来气候和土地利用； (2) 评估温室气体排放和土地利用在驱动西非区域气候变化中的作用； (3) 了解生物物理和社会经济因素对土地利用变化的影响。 基于所提出的连接区域气候模型、动态植被模型、作物生长模型、农业经济模型和土地利用分配模型五个模型的级联模型框架，PI将研究社会经济和生物物理因素对人类土地利用的影响。该项目将深入了解地球系统模型中的气候与土地利用相互作用是否以及在多大程度上影响对未来气候和未来土地利用的预测。 这项研究的广泛影响很大。气候变化及其对粮食安全的不利影响是西非国家和国际组织的主要关切。该项目的结果将为粮食政策和适应气候变化的有针对性的投资提供科学基础。此外，该项目将在更广泛的背景下促进教学和学习，并增加代表性不足的群体，特别是妇女对地球科学研究的参与。 这笔赠款支持康涅狄格大学、洛约拉马利蒙特大学和国际粮食政策研究所等三个机构之间的合作努力。