Collaborative Research: Dynamic Vegetation Feedback and Regional Climate Predictions in West Africa

合作研究：西非动态植被反馈和区域气候预测

• 批准号: 1063986
• 负责人: Guiling Wang
• 金额: $ 44.6万
• 依托单位: University of Connecticut
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-05-15 至 2016-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1063986&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Dynamic; Vegetation; Feedback

The CO2-induced future climate changes and the resulting ecological consequence pose tremendous socioeconomic challenges. Development of long-term strategies for adaptation and mitigation relies on accurate prediction of such changes at regional scale. The goal of this project is to improve our capability and confidence in predicting future climate and vegetation changes in West Africa. In this project the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Land Model version 4 including the dynamic global vegetation model (CLM4-DGVM) will be coupled synchronously to the International Center of Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4); the resulting fully coupled model and its component models will be used to investigate the vegetation-climate interactions in West Africa in the context of regional climate predictions. Uncertainties related to lateral boundary conditions will be addressed by the use of output from multiple global climate models. A large set of experiments will be conducted to address several specific questions, including (1) Why do the regional climate model and its driving global model predict different future precipitation trends? How do different aspects of the lateral boundary conditions influence the precipitation trend simulated in the regional climate model? (2) How does dynamic vegetation feedback influence the predicted future trend of precipitation, including the precipitation amount, intensity, and seasonality? (3) How do future climate changes modify the competition between different vegetation types? This project will advance our understanding on vegetation-climate interactions and the resulting impact on regional climate prediction, and characterize uncertainties in regional climate predictions. While some of the results (e.g., the high sensitivity of regional climate to vegetation feedback) might be region-dependent, the scientific questions to be addressed and the process-based understanding derived from this project are applicable to other regions and other models. Broader impact: (1) Results from this project will be disseminated to local analysts and policy makers in African countries through the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) African country offices, and to researchers at the IFPRI?s Harvest Choice program, to inform food policy making and long-term agricultural research and development investment; (2) Involving middle school girls and middle- and high-school teachers, this project will promote teaching and learning in a broad context and enhance participation of under-represented groups in geosciences; (3) Results from this project will support major multi-model inter-comparison efforts including the West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation (WAMME) project and the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-Africa) project. This project is a collaborative effort between the University of Connecticut and Loyola Marymount University.

二氧化碳引起的未来气候变化及其生态后果构成了巨大的社会经济挑战。制定适应和缓解的长期战略依赖于在区域尺度上对这种变化的准确预测。该项目的目标是提高我们预测西非未来气候和植被变化的能力和信心。本项目将与国际理论物理中心区域气候模式4 （RegCM4）同步耦合国家大气研究中心社区土地模式第4版，包括全球动态植被模式（CLM4-DGVM）；由此产生的完全耦合模型及其组成模型将用于在区域气候预测的背景下研究西非的植被-气候相互作用。与横向边界条件有关的不确定性将通过使用多个全球气候模式的输出来解决。将进行大量的实验来解决几个具体问题，包括：(1)为什么区域气候模式及其驱动的全球模式预测未来降水趋势不同？侧向边界条件的不同方面如何影响区域气候模式模拟的降水趋势？(2)植被动态反馈如何影响未来降水的预测趋势，包括降水量、强度和季节性？(3)未来气候变化如何改变不同植被类型间的竞争？该项目将促进我们对植被-气候相互作用及其对区域气候预测的影响的理解，并描述区域气候预测中的不确定性。虽然某些结果（例如，区域气候对植被反馈的高度敏感性）可能与区域有关，但本项目所要解决的科学问题和基于过程的理解适用于其他区域和其他模式。更广泛的影响：(1)本项目的结果将通过国际粮食政策研究所（IFPRI）非洲国家办事处传播给非洲国家的当地分析人士和决策者，以及IFPRI？“收获选择”项目，为食品政策制定和长期农业研发投资提供信息；(2)该项目由中学女生和初中及高中教师参与，将促进广泛背景下的教与学，并加强代表性不足群体对地球科学的参与；(3)该项目的结果将支持主要的多模式相互比较工作，包括西非季风模拟和评估（WAMME）项目和协调区域气候降尺度实验（CORDEX-Africa）项目。这个项目是康涅狄格大学和洛约拉玛丽蒙特大学的合作成果。